Sawyer's Lever of Power Book has Been Delayed

This book was supposed to be published sometimes in this month.  Somehow it has been delayed until Nov 2017

So, what is the Lever of Power?

Some claimed that it is some category of deception.  

The lever of power can be described as an unorthodox strategy that enables the strategist to gain strategic leverage in a complex situation. 

Sunzi's Definition of Unorthodox 

• What enables the masses of the Three Armies invariably to withstand the enemy without being defeated are the unorthodox and the orthodox.
• In general, in battle one engages with the orthodox and gains the victory through the unorthodox
• In warfare, the strategic configuration of power do not exceed the unorthodox and orthodox, but the changes of the unorthodox and orthodox can never be completely exhausted.
• The unorthodox and orthodox mutually produce each other, just like an endless cycle. Who can exhaust them?

By observing the configuration of the Big Tangible Picture that is operating within one's strategic terrain, the perceptive smart strategist can conclude the orthodox. 

Recognizing the tangible connectivity that exists within the grand configuration of the strategic terrain enables him to identify the potential "unorthodox" condition.


Side note
One should rarely ever use a spear in a "lever and fulcrum" situation.


More to come.  ... 

More Notes on Dr. Ralph Sawyer's "Lever of Power" Book

Source: QuoteAddicts

Lever of Power: Deception Theory and Practice in China and the West
   Although the term always had negative connotations, deception continued to be zealously employed to attain political and military aims in both China and the West throughout history. However, only China pondered its nature and developed an extensive literature on its theory and application in military contexts.

Apart from examining the concept's parameters, Lever of Power will discuss the important categories of practice, illustrate them with numerous instances of deception's successful application in both cultures, and provide an overview of important pronouncements and refinements over the ages in works as diverse as Sun-tzu's Art of War, theT'ai-pai Yin-ching, and the Stratagems of Frontinus and Polyaenus.

More to come.

Notes on Dr. Ralph Sawyer's "Lever of Power" Book

This book is supposed to be published sometimes in Nov 2016

So, what is the Lever of Power?

Some claimed that it is deception.  

The lever of power is an unorthodox strategy that enables the strategist to gain strategic leverage in a complex situation. 

Sunzi's Definition of Unorthodox 

• What enables the masses of the Three Armies invariably to withstand the enemy without being defeated are the unorthodox and the orthodox.
• In general, in battle one engages with the orthodox and gains the victory through the unorthodox
• In warfare, the strategic configuration of power do not exceed the unorthodox and orthodox, but the changes of the unorthodox and orthodox can never be completely exhausted.
• The unorthodox and orthodox mutually produce each other, just like an endless cycle. Who can exhaust them?

By observing the configuration of the Big Tangible Picture that is operating in one's terrain, the smart strategist can conclude the orthodox.  Understanding the connectivity within the configuration enables him to identify the unorthodox.


Side note
One should rarely ever use a spear in a "lever and fulcrum" situation.


More to come.  ... 

Staying Ahead of the Curve: Be Prepared (The New England Patriots Way)

(updated at 02.01.16)

Successful strategists have always performed "scenario planning before testing the scope of an untested concept" and is always prepared for the best case scenarios and the worst case scenarios.

The Patriots Way

Regardless of the last week's Patriots defeat against the Broncos,  The Patriots were prepared for of a technological breakdown.

" ... In fact, the Patriots sometimes stick with the old-school method of taking photographs and printing them out. Belichick told reporters that they use the photos as a "backup," calling them "more dependable" than the tablets. "

Comments From Belichick

"It is what it is," Belichick said, via MassLive. "It's a pretty common problem. We have ways of working through it. There's really nothing you can do. It's not like the headsets where the other sides are really affected. You deal with what you deal with.

"We have had it at home, we have had it on the road, other teams have had it, it's a fairly common problem that didn't affect the outcome of the game --- in no way. That's just part of it. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't."

But Microsoft defended their product. According to the company, the problem was related to the network -- not the tablets.

"Our team on the field has confirmed the issue was not related to the tablets themselves but rather an issue with the network," Microsoft said in a statement, per MassLive. "We worked with our partners who manage the network to ensure the issue was resolved quickly."

Click here for the rest of the story.

Historical Notes
In 2011, technology slowly expanded into the NFL.  To many, the clipboard and the three-ring binder playbooks might be obsolete.

It is important to know what to do next when the power is off.

The Strategy of Psychology 
Most people remembered visual images on a short term basis while some people retained  data by using an integrated approach of their visual and tactile sense. Others just used their visual and audio senses.

The Compass Principles

• To stay ahead of the curve,  one stays focused on their objective while being prepared for all tactical possibilities.
• One always performs "scenario planning" of a new concept or technology before utilizing it in the field.

Comments From the Compass Desk 
Most ambitious non-strategic people are not able to anticipate ahead because they do not think about the strategic factors, the tactical factors, the specificity of the tactical factors and/or the tactical factors that lead to the strategic factors.  They merely contemplate on the current moment.

An Acknowledgement to Phil Dawson, a Ultra Class Professional

Source: SFBay . ca

We have always admired anyone who can operate proficiently in their profession while going above and beyond the call of the duty.  Phil Dawson, the kicker of the SF 49ers,  is one of them. 

After so many years of prevailing in the trenches, he was named the MVP of his team.

Fwiw, the kicker is one of the loneliest positions in the game of football game. Regardless of the climate or the ball position, the kicker must either score or fail. Occasionally, the penalty for failing is professionally fatal.

Source: CBS Local

Click here for our view on how Phil Dawson's, the current SF 49er kicker stays focused while avoiding distractions and contentment, regardless of the possible unpredictability of his terrain.

Notes on Jiang Tai Gong's Six Secret Teachings (Section 2 of Chapter 1)

The observed lessons from the second section of chapter one (The Civil Teaching: Fullness and Emptiness) are:

• Some countries (or organizations) are chaotic while others are in order;
• The state and fortunes of any country (or organizations) are due to the leadership qualities of the emperor (chief executive officers), not by chance, divine beings, etc.
• A worthy ruler focuses on the interest of others while not living in a grand comfort nor does he adorns himself with an exquisite setting.
• Greatness originates from one's own integrity and how he/she treats his followers, the outsiders and the observers.
• Rewarding those who are loyal and who respect others.
• Rewarding good acts from people who have done bad things.
• Identifying and prohibiting unethical practices.

Comments From The Compass Desk 
"Full and Empty" is a principle that is connected to the macro concept of Yin and Yang. This concept is also used in Daoism and Chinese martial arts. 

Regardless of the activity, we breathe by alternating the motion of full (yang) and empty (yin).

Fullness can also mean being connected to the entire organization (or country), feeling everything within oneself.  

Emptiness can be described a divesting yourself from activities that are not match your standards of ethics and quality. It also alienate you from the people within the organization.

Fullness implies action. Emptiness involves patience.  There is a place for each quality.  Having a mindful state of the connectivity that exists within the Big Tangible Picture (BTP) is the focus point of the successful strategists.

Applying to Competitive Strategy  
If someone attacked us, we yield displayed emptiness (yin), giving them nothing to press against. As they returned to their position (for the purpose of regaining balance), we follow, stick to the essence of their position with the force of fullness (yang)

Side note
This strategic classic was written by Jiang Tai Gong, the father of Chinese strategy.

(Opps! The order of the chapters are incorrectly posted. Ugh!?. Click here for section three of chapter one) 

The Return to The Theory of "The Dao of Everything"

(Updated on 5/25/15)

Many weeks ago,  Hillary Clinton, current presidential candidate visited Mayor Ed Lee at Red Blossom Tea, a San Francisco's Chinatown tea store for the obvious publicity reasons.

This presidential candidate  presented her brand of leadership by establishing the act of credibility with some of her vast voter base. She methodically displayed the courage of leaving a tea store and began the process of "meeting and greeting" with some of the residents of San Francisco's Chinatown. This act of benevolence, also displayed the image of wisdom to the SF Chinese residents and some of the S.F. tourists. ... 

The above act is a social-political flavor of implemented strategic power. 

Leadership by Connecting

Exemplary leadership is about properly and punctually demonstrating an assortment of actions relating to wisdom, credibility, benevolence, courage and discipline to the right people. ... Smart political leaders of all sorts who are mindfully aware, usually performed this deed quite well.

Idealistically, seeing the Dao of their settings usually enables one to shape their grand terrain and its "connecting" secondary terrains. ... One who consistently connects these dots, will eventually succeed in the information-based opportunity economy.

Remember, macro coincidences are usually scripted.

Other Interesting Visits
In 2012, President Obama did the Dim Sum tour through San Francisco's Chinatown  tour and was reelected.

President Clinton visited Eastern Bakery a San Francisco Chinatown bakery located on Grant Avenue in 1996 and was reelected. (Fwiw, their egg custard pastry is superb.  It goes well with the green tea from Red Blossom Tea Store.)

Click here and here  for the picture

Side Note
In 1988, vice president George Bush visited another San Francisco Chinese tea place on Grant Avenue during his West Coast "meet and greet" campaign tour and won the presidential election.

Comments From The Compass Desk
The Dao of everything means that people generally presumed the causation of a presumed simple event with simple reasoning without recognizing the factors behind it.

This correlation between those mentioned events does not mean a guaranteed win for Hillary Clinton for the 2016 presidential election.  Based on the projected voter numbers between the Democrats, the Republicans and the Independents, the odds are favoring Ms. Clinton if certain negative publicity does not ruin her campaign.  The Republicans are not going to let the Democrats win the 2016 presidential election without a good fight.

When comparing events, objects and other unique matters, the successful strategist usually operates from a wide sampling of data and a set of quality factors, would rarely ever utilizes the reason of "correlation implied causation".

source: xkcd

The "correlation implied causation" reasoning rarely ever works in a complex setting especially where the risk consequence of a bad decision could be more monumental than the risk reward.

A Humorous Side Note
One of our favorite but strange  "correlation implied causation" examples is Denver Broncos always losing the Super Bowl game during the Chinese Lunar Year's Year of Horse (1978, 1990, and 2014).

Competing in the Efficient Economy from the Daoist View

Strategic pragmatism is about concluding certain decisions from a viewpoint of immediate gains while staying mindful of the Bigger Tangible Picture (BTP). 

Retrospectively, one knows that everything around him and her is quite mundane and boring. The only things that count is his belief in himself.

This would make the strategist detached from the non-relevant influences.

Looking from the Topview
One looks at things in terms of analogies. My preference is to use the system and sub systems analogy while others used the perceptive of major pieces and minor pieces (pawns, etc.). 

By knowing how things work from the different levels or realms of life, one focuses their attention and their efforts on their own goals and objectives while  ignoring the non-relevant, nameless, faceless objects. 

While viewing the connectivity between the people, the events and the objects in terms of changes and coverage, without ever losing one's own virtue, the successful strategist stays ahead of the curve by always being two steps ahead of the curve. He anticipates the events and adjusts to it by seeing the Dao of a situation.

Using a billiard analogy, he is always looking for that third shot before taking the first shot (for the apparent reason of staying ahead of the competition.) 

Acknowledging Pi Day While Wishing Happy Birthday to Albert Einstein

source (updated at 6:28 am)

Pop culture is about the irrational exuberance by the unmindful masses, on some irrelevant subject matter that has a life cycle of a lemming.  A few might look beyond the basic facade and discovered some glimmer of substance.

A Note on Pi
So, How does  the Pi constant of  Pi Day connect to strategic thinking?

The uniqueness of  this specific math constant transcends time and space because it is found in a vast array of math and physics formulas.  

Because of its historical value  and its pertinent value to our setting, the nerds decided to give the Pi constant its own day.

Side note to the non-nerds: There is more to the Big Tangible Picture of strategy than organizational leadership,  tactics, resources, technology and operational strategy.

Math plays a part in every day of our lives.   It is used in predicting weather, time, money management.  Beside the apparent formulas and equations and the emphasis of rational logic,  Math is a superb tool that can be used to solve many predictable and near-predictable problems.

In some cases, math is quite relevant in your choice of tactics, your management of resources and technology and your overview of the strategy.

Connecting to the Bigger Picture
Before assessing the scope of the Big Tangible Picture strategically, the budding amateurs should learn how to estimate the scope of certain prevailing factors.  

Good strategists who usually comprehend the connectivity of the relevant (ultra-level) tactical specifics that play the important role in the configuration of their terrain and beyond.  (In some rare cases, these ultra-level tactical specifics could be a game changer in the impact of our lives. )

For some situation, the experienced strategist could use the configuration of the terrain into their strategy.  It helps to understand the math, the physics and the chemistry that operate within it. 

Side Notes  Click here , on how some future engineers and scientists celebrate this day.  Then, click here, here,  here and here   on other views of this event.   ...  Fwiw, the hardcore nerds are more interested in Tau day.

A Quick Note on Albert Einstein

Source: Wikipedia

Today is Albert Einstein birthday. He would have been 136.

So how does Albert Einstein fits into the BTP of strategy? 

His "Big Picture Thinking" in the area of theoretical physics lead to the general theory of relativity, one of the two pillars of modern physics (alongside quantum mechanics).  It also lead to a Nobel Prize 

Interestingly, many of his ideas started with something small. It then  slowly evolve into something big by experimenting it in the many specific realms of life.  Like most great thinkers, Einstein was seeking that absolute  "game-changer" idea that could positively explain the ultra specifics of life that affect our lives.   


Connecting to a Similar Situation 
To create or innovate a new idea, one must be able to start with a base idea and slowly evolve it by connecting it to another but similar idea that operates in a similar terrain.

It is similar to how Tesla operated.

“My method is different. I do not rush into actual work. When I get a new idea, I start at once building it up in my imagination, and make improvements and operate the device in my mind. When I have gone so far as to embody everything in my invention, every possible improvement I can think of, and when I see no fault anywhere, I put into concrete form the final product of my brain.” - Tesla

You do think like that.  ... Do you?

Final Thoughts
Regardless of the realm, good strategy is about comprehending the connectivity of the tactical particulars within one's terrain and the results from it before building the plan that leads to one's projected goal.

Another Note on Andrew Marshall: The Yoda of The U.S. Defense Department

Source

(Updated from a previous post  03/2014)

In the business of maintaining the national security, the responsibility of strategic forecasting lies on the shoulder of the few.  Andrew Marshall is one of them. He leads the Office of Net Assessment since its inception in 1973.

The budding strategists should read up on him.  He is one of the best in the assessment of relevant trends are in play in the national security terrain.   

As of this year, Mr. Marshall is retiring. Click here on an interesting take from The Economist.


Biography
In an interview in 2012 the main author of four of the Chinese defence white papers General Chen Zhou stated that Marshall was one of the most important and influential figures in changing Chinese defence thinking in the 1990s and 2000s.

Foreign Policy named Marshall one of its 2012 Top 100 Global Thinkers, "for thinking way, way outside the Pentagon box"   -  Wikipedia


Click here, here, here, here and here for more information on him.


Notes From Previous Interviews

From a Wired 2003, interview 

Andrew Marshall

Q: Does new technology ultimately make us more or less vulnerable?
A: A friend of mine, Yale economist Martin Shubik, says an important way to think about the world is to draw a curve of the number of people 10 determined men can kill before they are put down themselves, and how that has varied over time. His claim is that it wasn't very many for a long time, and now it's going up. In that sense, it's not just the US. All the world is getting less safe.

Getting the Best Bang For the Buck
From a The Economist interview 
Much of this admiration seems genuine, but money may also play a role. “Chen knows that Marshall is good for his budgets,” says Jonathan Pollack of the Brookings Institution, a think-tank. The same could be said of Mr Marshall’s American devotees. The ONA relies on a small network of outside contractors and individuals, often alumni of St Andy’s, to provide analysis. One large recipient of its cash is the Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, a think-tank that is led by Mr Krepinevich and once employed Mr Watts.

Comments From the Compass Desk
So how does one assessed on the possibility future without being too mindfully aware of the present?   The initial step begins by possessing the conscious feeling of no constraints and no worry of danger before identifying the on-coming trends. Estimating the range, the complexity of any on-coming trend before connecting its inner attributes to the configuration of the Big Tangible Picture, is the macro step that most people have trouble performing. 

Assessing the tangibility of a trend by testing the extensiveness of its after-effect in a strategic simulation setting. To most people, it is quite tricky task but not impossible.

Side Note
Those who seriously studied Yiquan, would understand that sole point from the practice of centering oneself. 

#

Thoughts on Assessing Strategically from Bill James, A Successful Baseball Strategist

"We are always right, except when we are wrong,
We are always on target except when we’re off.
We are always on time, except when we are early, or when we are late.
We do the best we can.’’
2014 Bill James Handbook 

Source: ESPN

Click here on an interesting but short interview on the Great Bill James from FT . com!   

You can visit his site at BillJamesonline.com.

Assessing the 2014 NFL Economy

In the game of craps (shooting dice), the uniquely smart gamblers are usually betting on the possibility of the shooters "seven out " before making their point.

Tonight is the first game of the NFL season.   Regardless of the results, it is a game between two playoff contenders, not pretenders.   

The experts and the serious fans are usually good at assessing which teams are going to the playoffs. Whether all of those teams are able to reach the second stage of the NFL season,  is a different story. 

To be different, we are usually focused on the other end of the spectrum,- the bottom five.

The Dao of the Successful Speculators (Strategists)
By looked at a set of strategic factors (the strength of schedule; the quality of competition; the quantity of personnel turnover (the players and the staff); the number of quality rookies in their rosters; the quality of the coaching staff (in terms of being involved with a winning program), the playoff experience of the quarterbacks, the number of players that they had to trade for, etc.), we have not concluded our bottom five NFL teams. 

Once the bottom five are established, the successful speculators usually begin their strategic assessment phase by focusing on the number of points that each of those five teams will lose by or the number of points that they could produce for that game or the number of points that they could surrender for that game  

Assessing the Specifics Behind the Worst Teams
“These are the ways that successful strategists are victorious. They cannot be spoken or transmitted in advance. ... Before the confrontation, they resolve in their conference room that they will be victorious, have determined that the majority of factors are in their favor. Before the confrontation they resolve in their conference room that they will not be victorious, have determined a few factors are in their favor.

If those who find that the majority of factors favor them, will be victorious while those who have found few factors favor them will be defeated, what about someone who finds no factors in their favor?

When observing from this viewpoint, victory and defeat will be apparent.”

- Art of War 1 (Paraphrased from the Sawyer's translation)

As each week progresses forward, the successful speculators begin to see a sequential trend of factors that regularly represented the losing team.  ... 

Following is an abridged listing of those factors:

• the length of the injury of the starters between the losing team and the contending opponent; 
• the ratio of forced turnovers between the losing team and the contending opponent;
• the ratio of touchdowns between the losing team and the contending opponent;
• the ratio of interceptions between the losing team and the contending opponent; and 
• the ratio of high yards after completion (yac) per game average between the losing team and the contending opponent.

By going through the comparison of the specific factors, one concludes the present state of a competitor's strategic disposition.  Only the amateurs employ a Occam's type of analysis methodology to finalize their conclusion.

Side note 
Do you know the matrix of connectivity that integrates the factors together?

Updated note
Depending on the prevalence of those factors, a team listed on the bottom could improve when their quality of the competition begins to decline.



The Possible Solution For Each of Those Teams

Those who cannot repair the technical configuration of their team, usually tape it up and hope for the best. 

Comments From The Compass Desk
There are some technical differences between that of a professional football team and a business organization.

The major difference is that the team's fans will keep on investing money in their losing team because they have nothing else to live for.  In the case of a business organization, there is a limitation to how much capital that they could lose, before proceeding toward bankruptcy.

Then there is the Detroit Lions.

Each week, billion of dollars are wagered on professional and college sports. Some people believed that this is the ultimate stage of wagering. 

Ultra class professionals like Edward O. Thorp believed that the narrow niches that lie within the vast stock market is the real casino. ... Understanding the tangible connection between the global politics and the physics of wall street is more challenging than the over-hyped human behaviors behind professional sports. 

Persistence Prevails: The Zebra 1 The Lion 0

How should one hold themselves in the face of adversity? 
In most instances, zebras that are under attack by lions, lose. In the final moment, their posture changed, they bowed their heads, and submitted to their fate. 

Sometimes, the zebra gets lucky and reverses the situation

The following film clip shows the zebra drowning the lion.

In life, the successful competitors (or strategists)  never bow their heads. They keep standing straight, never adopting the posture of defeat, and always refusing to surrender.  

"It is persistence which wins many challenges. And persistence is strictly a matter of force of will. ... Sometimes, the outcome of a competition is not decided by the first strategic move or even the third. ... Rather, fortitude is involved. Force of will is persistence. If one does not lose their sense of self, he or she will persist and their strategic power will not diminish. ... On the contrary, it will endure after their body has wasted away." - A Nameless Strategist

Clue 

Understanding the configuration of one's Big Tangible Picture (BTP) and beyond, is the starting step. .We presumed that you know how to do that!?  ... Do you? 

Comments From The Compass Desk

From our experience, the will to prepare is greater than the will to win.  Do you know why?

Congratulations to Tony La Russa, the Latest Member of the Baseball Hall of Fame

Source: Newstribune.com 

Bobby Cox, Joe Torre and La Russa were all great baseball managers. They each had their own individual approach to winning games.  

In the list of smart coaches and managers, Tony La Russa is one of my favorites in reference to innovative thinking and competitiveness 

He was an innovative grinder who out-prepared his competition regardless of the situation.

Innovate to Compete
La Russa was in the forefront of using computer-driven statistics for game preparation and  game decisions in the 1980's. This innovative approach enabled him to anticipate forthcoming tactical situations before deploying certain adjustments. 

This covert strategic tool helped him win 12 division titles, six pennants, three World Series title (1989, 2006, and 2011) and four "manager of the year" titles.

"Computer Tony" La Russa and a few other managers were using statistics more than a decade before the over-marketed Moneyball's hype became popular. 

He was credited for the advent of the specialized bullpen that utilizes specialty players in certain game situations. From the seventh inning and on, a different bullpen pitcher was employed for either one specific hitter or one entire inning. LaRussa would also occasionally utilizes a specific type of hitter against a specific pitcher for the purpose of creating an advantageous mismatch

When managing the Cardinals, he would bat the pitcher outside of the ninth spot in order to gain a slight advantage of having a stronger hitter to bat ahead of the lead-off hitter..

These innovations originated from La Russa's competitiveness and his ability to see certain inflection points during a game through his employment of statistical analysis.  

Another interesting tactical innovation was using a non-baseball personnel signaling in the next move while he and/or his coaches were signaling a fake move.  

The Signature Approach
The gist of Tony La Russa's approach is to "overmanage" a game by creating a slew of advantageous offensive and defensive mismatches based on individual players statistics and tendencies in certain situations. The baseball segment of our group are used to seeing La Russa's repeating this grand tactic in all of his games. 

If it was a late inning game where the score was either even or his team was one run ahead.  We instinctively expected that Tony would be playing his game of strategic mismatching.

Sparky Anderson, Tony La Russa's mentor referred the last three innings of a game as the most important part of managing.a game.   Those who understand advanced baseball strategy (the strategic assessment side of the game), know the specific set of intricacies that I am talking about.

Side note: Historically, Herman Franks a Chicago Cubs manager was the first manager who used Bruce Sutter as a closer during the late innings.  

The Other Compass Point
Beside being an innovator, Tony La Russa also treated his players like family. This honest act of benevolence creates trust and credibility.  The players trusted him in his management of strategic decisions  whether it worked or not.

The Positive Results From La Russa's Approach
La Russa’s teams won more games than they lost because they scored more runs than they allowed; 1,523 more runs to be exact. It was 23,964 runs for La Russa’s teams in his 5,097 games, and 22,441 for the other side.

How did they score more? Well, they bested their opponents in many phases.

In the 5,097 regular-season games La Russa managed, his teams laced 1,523 more hits than their opponents, drew 686 more walks, and got hit 19 more times. Getting on base over 2,000 more times should lead to more runs.

They also did it while expending fewer outs. The 2,000-plus extra times on base came in just 1,100 more plate appearances than their opponents had. Must be all those times they led heading into the bottom of the ninth in home games.

But it wasn’t just getting on base, as that 1,523 edge in hits includes a lead in homers of 480. They got on base more and they slugged more.

La Russa’s teams also did a better job on the bases. In his career, his teams stole 854 more bases than their opponents while only getting caught stealing 27 more times. That’s an edge of about 240 runs right there.

That’s pretty well-rounded: better power, better speed, better batting, better patience at the plate. To that you can add a few other things. Despite having more guys on base, La Russa’s teams hit into 79 fewer double plays while hitting 113 more sacrifice flies and laying down 28 more sacrifice hits. Also, the edge in walks comes almost entirely due to managerial strategy: La Russa’s 686 extra walks came primarily from a 554 lead in intentional walks.


There was a downside, but it was negligible. His teams fanned 647 more times. Big deal. They hit six fewer doubles. Yawn. They also had 126 fewer triples. In all, though, his teams beat the opposition in many ways.
Source: Hardball Times

In summary, his team would defeat their opponents with an array of different approaches.

Comments From the Compass Desk
I highly recommended the reading of George Will's Men At Work if you are interested in one perspective of La Russa's approach to viewing the game of baseball. 

Computer Tony

His intellectual perspective to the game of baseball also inspired a published software game that emulated his strategic thinking skills.  Instead of the visual flashes of the current software game style, Tony La Russa' Ultimate Baseball game emphasized on the cerebral side of baseball.

Click here, here, here and here for Tony La Russa's view of Moneyball.

The Question of the Day
Do you know the technical distinction between La Russa's type of strategic approach and the over-hyped Moneyball's approach?

Strategizing From The View of Lloyd Blankfein

updated at 18:18 hrs

It is always interesting to listen and learn how other strategists manage their major strategic decisions.

Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman’s current chief executive, loves to tell people that he spends “98 percent of my time thinking about 2 percent probabilities."   ... It becomes the alpha priority especially in the area of managing risk in different situations. 

In your competitive terrain, where do you think that 2% is located at ?

Do you think that you can capitalize on the 2% before your competition can?

• Source: Dao of Strategy

###

Q: Why do you think the 2% is focused on?
A: The 2% depicts whether the best case or the worst case scenario would happen at all.

                                                             ###

The Charlie Rose View
This past Tuesday night, I saw a superb Charlie Rose interview with Lloyd Blankfein.   It revealed the strategic mindset of Mr. Blankfein in regards to how he strategizes from a top-bottom view..

# From Businessinsider.com

Lloyd Blankfein called himself "a highly functional paranoid" on Charlie Rose last night.   

"...when the phone rings too late at night or too early in the morning I'm going, "Oh, my God, what happened?"

He continued: "...I spend about -- I have the unhappy life of having to spend about 98 percent of my time worried about the 2 percent worst contingencies." 

Here's a partial transcript: 

...

Lloyd Blankfein: Well, I'm in the risk management business, so I don't take it for granted that I can see behind -- I don't think I can see four inches into the future.  I'd say that most of my --

Charlie Rose: [laughs] Yeah, but your firm has a reputation of being pretty good at understanding the future and being able to make some analysis as to about what risks to take.

Lloyd Blankfein: Well, I'll confess to you that what I think we aspire to is less foresee the future and more be a great contingency planner because -- and sometimes you contingency plan really well and you can respond very fast to what's happening because you thought through all the possibilities, you can get off the mark so quickly it looks like you false started, it looks like you anticipated the start when all you've really done was listen so closely and knew what you were going to do that you got off the mark quickly.  I think it's hard enough to -- I think it's hard enough to predict the present.  You know, think about it, perspective, it's very hard to step out of your context and see what is happening.  I have views about the future but I will tell you we're not in the – you wouldn't be a very good risk manager if you let what you think was going to happen have too great an influence on what you plan for and protect it against.  What we really do is we really contingency plan, what might happen, what could happen.

Charlie Rose: What is your core competence?

Lloyd Blankfein: Personally?

Charlie Rose: Yes.

Lloyd Blankfein: You know, I think I am -- I think I have -- I am a highly functional paranoid.

Charlie Rose:[laughs]

Lloyd Blankfein: And if I'm -- if I've taken some -- if I've overstated [unintelligible] highly functional part, I'm sure I'm a paranoid.

Charlie Rose: [laughs] Paranoid about what?

Lloyd Blankfein: Well, I have to worry about stuff, you know, every -- listen, when the phone rings too late at night or too early in the morning I'm going, "Oh, my God, what happened?"

Charlie Rose: "I don't want to answer it."

Lloyd Blankfein: "What is somebody --" no, I have to answer. And, in fact, if it stopped ringing I'd call everybody I knew at work to find out what I missed.

Charlie Rose: [laughs]

Lloyd Blankfein: No, I'm -- you know, I spend about -- I have the unhappy life of having to spend about 98 percent of my time worried about the 2 percent worst contingencies.

Perhaps that's why sometimes he prays for a rainy weekend so he can just lie on the couch.

• Source: Businessinsider.com...

Comments From The Compass Desk
There are many ways to perform scenario modeling. I preferred to use the "Temple Victory" process.

“Before the contest, the successful strategists resolve in their operations room (temple) that they will be victorious, have determined that the majority of factors are in their favor. … If those who find that the majority of factors favor them, will be victorious.  … When observing from this viewpoint, victory and defeat will be apparent.” 

- Art of War 1 (Paraphrased from the Sawyer's translation) 

Is it that simple?

The real challenge is knowing what factors are in play and the mathematics behind it.  ...

The Li Quan Perspective

"Those who excel in warfare contend for advantage with others only after determining through temple calculations that they will be successful. Attacking the rebellious and embracing the distant, toppling the lost and solidifying the extant and uniting the weak and attacking the benighted are all manifestations.  The interior and exterior becoming estranged, as in the case of the Shang and Chou armies, is what is referred to as having determined victory through temple calculations before engaging  in combat.  
According to T'ai-yi Tun-chia assessment method, anything above sixty a majority, anything below sixty is  a minority.  ... In all these  cases, victory and defeat are easily seen. "   
- Li Quan's  T'ai-pai Yin-ching

Based on the "completeness" of one's assessment, the successful strategists determined the strategic efficiency of their situation and decides whether it is possible to prevail in any specific contest.

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