The Dao of Strategc Implementation

(updated)

It is rare to see someone who possesses a minimum of 50% of the necessary information at the initial starting point of a strategic project.  

The first step is assessing a strategic situation by asking the right questions  while identifying the specific sources.

We will elaborate on the approach of applying certain Chinese strategic principles to the "Cone of Uncertainty" model in a future post. 

More to come. ... 

An Update on The Moscow Rules

(updated on 09.13.15  15:15 hrs) 

It has been awhile since we discussed the basics of extreme competitive strategies and field survival strategies.

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Following is an update on our previous Moscow Rules post:

The original list were said to have contained 40 different rules, and may never have existed in written form; former agent Tony Mendez wrote “Although no one had written them down, they were the precepts we all understood … By the time they got to Moscow, everyone knew these rules. They were dead simple and full of common sense…”.

1. Assume nothing.
2. Technology will always let you down.
3. Murphy is right.
4. Never go against your gut.
5. Always listen to your gut; it is your operational antennae.
6. Everyone is potentially under opposition control.
7. Don’t look back; you are never completely alone. Use your gut.
8. Go with the flow; use the terrain.
9. Take the natural break of traffic.
10. Maintain a natural pace.
11. Establish a distinctive and dynamic profile and pattern.
12. Stay consistent over time.
13. Vary your pattern and stay within your profile.
14. Be non threatening: keep them relaxed; mesmerize!
15. Lull them into a sense of complacency.
16. Know the opposition and their terrain intimately.
17. Build in opportunity but use it sparingly.
18. Don’t harass the opposition.
19. Make sure they can anticipate your destination.
20. Pick the time and place for action.
21. Any operation can be aborted; if it feels wrong, then it is wrong.
22. Keep your options open.
23. If your gut says to act, overwhelm their senses.
24. Use misdirection, illusion, and deception.
25. Hide small operative motions in larger non threatening motions.
26. Float like a butterfly; sting like bee.
27. When free, In Obscura, immediately change direction and leave the area.
28. Break your trail and blend into the local scene.
29. Execute a surveillance detection run designed to draw them out over time.
30. Once is an accident; twice is a coincidence; three times is an enemy action. (taken from Ian Fleming’s novel Goldfinger)
31. Avoid static lookouts; stay away from chokepoints where they can reacquire you.
32. Select a meeting site so you can overlook the scene.
33. Keep any asset separated from you by time and distance until it is time.
34. If the asset has surveillance, then the operation has gone bad.
35. Only approach the site when you are sure it is clean.
36. After the meeting or act is done, “close the loop” at a logical cover destination.
37. Be aware of surveillance’s time tolerance so they aren’t forced to raise an alert.
38. If an alert is issued, they must pay a price and so must you.
39. Let them believe they lost you; act innocent.
40. There is no limit to a human being’s ability to rationalize the truth.

source: http://blog.spymuseum.org/the-moscow-rules-still-rule/#comment-628

Click here for our perspective of the Moscow Rules and click here on a past post on the Phoenix Rules


Comments From the Compass Desk 
By being mindfully perceptive enough, one should be able to identify the gaps and the psychological perception flaws within the Moscow Rules. 

One can only guess that it works for those who spent their time drinking volka by the gallons while competing against "remedio" strategists.  

In an extreme Darwinian situation, which approach would you preferred to use - Using the Moscow Rules while living for the moment or Assessing the Big Tangible Picture (BTP) methodically while being mindful of the "concealed" influencing factors - before deciding on any strategic move?

There is a technical weakness with each approach.   Whether one is are to able to deduce that distinction point is a different story. 

... In the realm of extremity, there are some field strategists who usually live off some sort of misguided set of principles without ever understanding the configuration of the Big Tangible Picture (BTP). Their survival-ability is frequently based on the "chance" factor and rarely ever knowing whether he/she is ahead or behind the situation.

In the case of the Big Tangible Picture (BTP), the patient strategists who are ahead of "The Big Tangible Picture" curve, usually preferred to understand the configuration of the situation before delineating the ranking of choices.  The approach enables them to make a more efficient choice.

--- eof

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A Question For The Sunzi's Reader" How Does One Moves Like a Wind and Be Quiet as a Forest?

" Let your rapidity be that of the wind, your silence that of the forest. In raiding and plundering be like fire, be immovable like a mountain...."  -  Art of War 7

Without understanding the configuration of the situation and having the zero mastery of the adjustment tactics, how does one performs the following:

• Move like a wind;
• Be silent as a forest; 
• Burn the competitor with fire; and   
• Possess the fortitude of a mountain.

Click here for more information on this quote.

Some aspects of Chapter Seven of Sunzi's essay is focused on maneuvering with speed. We preferred to view that portion of the chapter from a psychological perspective. 

Our Compass Suggestion

                                                    

One can only move like a wind if the strategist understands the configuration of the terrain or possesses the economics, the logistics and the team to achieve that intent. It also helps if the team has the proper preparation to maneuver as a team.

One can only be quiet as a forest if he and his team are properly prepared for all tactical situations.

One can only effectively burn (or influence) the competitor if he knows what is the specific target while having the proper preparation for that tactical situation. .

One can only be quiet as a forest and have the fortitude of a mountain if he and his team are properly prepared for all tactical situations.

Click here for more on the insight relating to our suggestion.

Lesson
Proper planning and preparation prevents pissed poor performance.

The Problem of the Day: Are You Able To Perform Scenario Planning (or Scenaro Modeling) with Sunzi Strategic Principles?

"Regardless which Sunzi's The Art of War translation that you are utilizing, the conceptual "end question" is near-always the same: would you be in a superior strategic positioning than your competition?  ..."

If your competitor has the superior strategic positioning, what are your first three moves that you would use to reverse the overwhelming odds?

Clue
Possessing the following qualities (the correct Sunzi's translation, tangible strategic experience, the strategic skill to see the Big Tangible Picture and to think geometrically while under the pressure of time) gives the competing strategist a better chance to understand the tectonic level behind the Big Tangible Picture.

We will elaborate more on this unique subject matter in a future post.

Strategizing From The View of Lloyd Blankfein

updated at 18:18 hrs

It is always interesting to listen and learn how other strategists manage their major strategic decisions.

Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman’s current chief executive, loves to tell people that he spends “98 percent of my time thinking about 2 percent probabilities."   ... It becomes the alpha priority especially in the area of managing risk in different situations. 

In your competitive terrain, where do you think that 2% is located at ?

Do you think that you can capitalize on the 2% before your competition can?

• Source: Dao of Strategy

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Q: Why do you think the 2% is focused on?
A: The 2% depicts whether the best case or the worst case scenario would happen at all.

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The Charlie Rose View
This past Tuesday night, I saw a superb Charlie Rose interview with Lloyd Blankfein.   It revealed the strategic mindset of Mr. Blankfein in regards to how he strategizes from a top-bottom view..

# From Businessinsider.com

Lloyd Blankfein called himself "a highly functional paranoid" on Charlie Rose last night.   

"...when the phone rings too late at night or too early in the morning I'm going, "Oh, my God, what happened?"

He continued: "...I spend about -- I have the unhappy life of having to spend about 98 percent of my time worried about the 2 percent worst contingencies." 

Here's a partial transcript: 

...

Lloyd Blankfein: Well, I'm in the risk management business, so I don't take it for granted that I can see behind -- I don't think I can see four inches into the future.  I'd say that most of my --

Charlie Rose: [laughs] Yeah, but your firm has a reputation of being pretty good at understanding the future and being able to make some analysis as to about what risks to take.

Lloyd Blankfein: Well, I'll confess to you that what I think we aspire to is less foresee the future and more be a great contingency planner because -- and sometimes you contingency plan really well and you can respond very fast to what's happening because you thought through all the possibilities, you can get off the mark so quickly it looks like you false started, it looks like you anticipated the start when all you've really done was listen so closely and knew what you were going to do that you got off the mark quickly.  I think it's hard enough to -- I think it's hard enough to predict the present.  You know, think about it, perspective, it's very hard to step out of your context and see what is happening.  I have views about the future but I will tell you we're not in the – you wouldn't be a very good risk manager if you let what you think was going to happen have too great an influence on what you plan for and protect it against.  What we really do is we really contingency plan, what might happen, what could happen.

Charlie Rose: What is your core competence?

Lloyd Blankfein: Personally?

Charlie Rose: Yes.

Lloyd Blankfein: You know, I think I am -- I think I have -- I am a highly functional paranoid.

Charlie Rose:[laughs]

Lloyd Blankfein: And if I'm -- if I've taken some -- if I've overstated [unintelligible] highly functional part, I'm sure I'm a paranoid.

Charlie Rose: [laughs] Paranoid about what?

Lloyd Blankfein: Well, I have to worry about stuff, you know, every -- listen, when the phone rings too late at night or too early in the morning I'm going, "Oh, my God, what happened?"

Charlie Rose: "I don't want to answer it."

Lloyd Blankfein: "What is somebody --" no, I have to answer. And, in fact, if it stopped ringing I'd call everybody I knew at work to find out what I missed.

Charlie Rose: [laughs]

Lloyd Blankfein: No, I'm -- you know, I spend about -- I have the unhappy life of having to spend about 98 percent of my time worried about the 2 percent worst contingencies.

Perhaps that's why sometimes he prays for a rainy weekend so he can just lie on the couch.

• Source: Businessinsider.com...

Comments From The Compass Desk
There are many ways to perform scenario modeling. I preferred to use the "Temple Victory" process.

“Before the contest, the successful strategists resolve in their operations room (temple) that they will be victorious, have determined that the majority of factors are in their favor. … If those who find that the majority of factors favor them, will be victorious.  … When observing from this viewpoint, victory and defeat will be apparent.” 

- Art of War 1 (Paraphrased from the Sawyer's translation) 

Is it that simple?

The real challenge is knowing what factors are in play and the mathematics behind it.  ...

The Li Quan Perspective

"Those who excel in warfare contend for advantage with others only after determining through temple calculations that they will be successful. Attacking the rebellious and embracing the distant, toppling the lost and solidifying the extant and uniting the weak and attacking the benighted are all manifestations.  The interior and exterior becoming estranged, as in the case of the Shang and Chou armies, is what is referred to as having determined victory through temple calculations before engaging  in combat.  
According to T'ai-yi Tun-chia assessment method, anything above sixty a majority, anything below sixty is  a minority.  ... In all these  cases, victory and defeat are easily seen. "   
- Li Quan's  T'ai-pai Yin-ching

Based on the "completeness" of one's assessment, the successful strategists determined the strategic efficiency of their situation and decides whether it is possible to prevail in any specific contest.

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