The Dao of Strategy: Moneyball

Showing posts with label Moneyball. Show all posts

Monday, April 6, 2015

Play Ball! (The Irrelevancy of Moneyball)

(updated 04.09.15)

Go [ Pick a Team Name ]. Play Ball!

True strategists have never been a fan of this unique "talent evaluation" approach. It is an integration of hype and minor substance. Ask Tony LaRussa.

Click here, here, here and here for Tony La Russa's view of Moneyball.

Quick Synopsis

The Oakland A's and many professional baseball teams have been using a talent evaluation process called Sabermetrics for numerous years.

The A's management somehow discovered a few unique indicators within the process that most of its implementers did not noticed. They became successful with their Moneyball process, that a book was written about it. Then. many other baseball teams began to copy their process.

It was good publicity for the A's. However, no good deed goes unpunished.

Since the inception of the Moneyball book, the Oakland A's still has not won the World Series . However the Boston Red Sox team who possessed a larger strategic foundation (i.e, intelligence gathering resources, economics, logistics, etc.), used the Moneyball process as a part of their strategic foundation to win three World Series since 2004.

During the successful years of the A's, an associate and I had a discussion with a local sport media insider on the Moneyball phenomenon He told us that the A's management should have kept the technicalities behind the process a secret. It was a major blunder to allow Michael Lewis to get an inside look on the team's decision-making process. Even Michael Lewis agreed that his book caused the A's to lose a few opportunities.

Since 2012, the A's have regained some of their magic and began to make a push to contend for the playoffs. They still have not been able to prevail over their first opponent.

Assessing Competition From a Macro View
In the information economy, successful innovation is regularly imitated. ...

The larger and well-resourced competition would usually adapt any successful process or tool quite well. In most cases, they can afford to err. The smaller competitors regularly operated on the margin of near-zero error. The outcome is obvious if they blundered. In most cases, they regularly focused on low-risk, low reward ventures.

Thoughts on the Moneyball Movie
Years ago, I saw the Moneyball movie and thought that it was ok. It was a nice narrative of a fairy tale.

I knew people who were A's fans who loved the movie. After they saw the movie, I usually asked them about the projected timeline for the A's winning another World Series. ... After a few moments of contemplation, they began to have anxiety attacks .

Some of them were just bandwagon jumpers until the A's went through a dry spell of losing seasons. Then, they left their team and pretended to be Giants fans. Most of them do not even live in Oakland.

These bandwagon jumpers do not know anything historical about the game, and the team but the score and the names of a few players. It is so pathetic.

Click here on why one might question the loyalty of A's fans.

Ruminations from the Compass Desk

Following is a series of lessons that one can learn from the Oakland A's campaign from the days of Moneyball until now:

Lesson #1

Never provide your competition the opportunity to utilize your trade secrets against you.

Lesson #2

In the information economy, every relevant competitor has a similar tool set. Obtaining the exotic skill and the strategic experience to master the toolset is always the first challenge. Once one is successful, concealing their variation of the general toolkit becomes the other challenge.

Lesson #3

It is nice to cheer for the underdog. However, the majority of the masses only remember the grand winner, not the losers.

Note: So, do you remember the losers for the last five World Series?

Lesson #4

The complete knowledge of one's grand terrain and the resourcefulness of each contending competitor have usually enabled the "persevering" strategist to succeed on the long run. (Read the last quote from Chapter 10 of the Art of War. You might understand why. )

Lesson #5a

No specific process is perfect. It evolves due to situational changes

Lesson #5b

The precise execution of the process is a prevailing factor.

Lesson #5c

Regardless of the process or the strategy, the attribute of talent and the accessibility of resources have usually prevail in extreme situations. A good strategy never hurts

Lesson #5d

In a predictable (and an even parity-based) situation, the strategic experience of the chief decision maker becomes relevant.

Lesson #6

The knowledge of identifying the pretenders, the underdogs and the contenders is quite important in all strategic situations.

Lesson #7

When the scarcity of resources becomes tangible, the competitive strategists have usually spend more time in the act of assessing the specifics. Then, they compared their own assessment of themselves to the assessment of their competition.

Lesson #8

Connecting the specifics to the grand overview usually means that one has a understanding of the Big Tangible Picture (BTP).

Lesson #9a

One's own comprehension of the configuration behind the Big Tangible Picture (BTP) is usually proportional to the implementation of their strategic advantage (aka. strategic power)

Lesson #9b

No strategic advantage (or strategic power) lasts forever.

Protecting the Advantage
In reference to lesson one, the first chapter of Jiang Tai Gong's Six Secret Teachings (The Civil Teaching) provides a sound and solid perspective on how to protect one's advantage.

Read, review and reflect.

King Wen asked Tai Gong:"How does one preserve the state's territory?"

Tai Gong said: "Do not estrange your relatives. Do not neglect the masses. Be concillatory and solicitous towards nearby states and control all that is under you. Do not loan the authority of state to other men. If you loan the authority of state to other men, then you will lose your authority. Do not hurt those of lower position to benefit those of higher position. Do not abandon the fundamental to save those that are inconsequential.

When the sun is at midday, you should dry things. If you grasp a knife, you must cut. If you hold an axe, you must attack."

"If at the height of the day, you do not dry things in the sun, this is termed losing the opportunity.

If you grasp a knife but do not cut anything, you will lose the moment for profits. If you hold an axe and do not attack, enemies will attack instead."

"If trickling streams are not blocked, they will become great rivers. If you do not extinguish the smallest flames, there is nothing much you can do when it turns into great flames.

If you do not eliminate the two-leaf sapling, you might have to use the axe to remove it in future." "For this reason, the ruler must focus on developing wealth within his state. Without material wealth, he has nothing with which to spread beneficence or to bring his relatives together.

If he estranges his relatives it will be harmful. If he loses the common people, he will be defeated. "

"Do not loan sharp weapons to other men. If you loan sharp weapons to other men, you will be hurt by them and will not live out your allotted span of years."

King Wen said:"What do you mean by benevolence and righteousness?"

Tai Gong replied: "Respect the common people, unite your relatives. If you respect the common people, they will be in harmony. And if you unite your relatives, they will be happy. This is the way to implement the essential cords of benevolence and righteousness."

"Do not allow other men to snatch away your awesomeness. Rely on your wisdom, follow the norm. Those that submit and accord with you, treat them generously and virtuously. Those that oppose you, break with force. If you respect the people and trust, the state will be peaceful and populace submissive."
- T’ai Kung Liu-t’ao (Six Secret Teachings)

More on this topic can be found in the Seven Military Classics of Ancient China.

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Friday, June 28, 2013

Filtering The Reality From The Mountain of Illusions: The NBA Draft

Yesterday was the NBA Draft, where each professional basketball team choose a "presumed flawless" young superstar who will score so many points and rebound so many times. The reality is that most of those performance reports are hype. Rarely does anyone ever focus on some of their possible flaws like the constant habit of turning over the ball during a defensive press.

Some of my favorite negatives are:

Replying too much on athletic skills than on technical skills;
Having a learning disability;
Possessing the emotional refusal to learn the playbook and/or to play team ball;
Having the attitude of not playing "one on one" defense; and
Having the possible reputation of being a team's cancer.

Sometimes, the statistics that the general manager employ, do not show some of these negatives. ... That is the grand flaw of the "Moneyball" approach.

Depending on the circumstances, some serious fans and various general managers are more focused on their second round draft choice. The cost is less and that those chosen players are given more time to refine their various skills.

Speaking of statistics, the longevity of most NBA players are usually is about few years. It is quite rare that a drafted NBA player stays in the NBA for over 10 years.

Most smart sport observers are usually assessing them throughout the season as a team player and having the patience and the tenacity to overcome pressure.

Past Result is no Indicator of Future Performance
The lesson is that the successful strategists do not get hooked on the hype. Instead of focusing on the same old set of horses, they look for the zebra. ... The zebra is someone who does more than expected. ... He does the dirty work and is usually the consummate team player. These rare individuals usually venture above and beyond the call of duty.

In this current draft, there are no over-hyped superstars. The best "safe" decision is to pursue a good performer who has a good work ethic and possessed a reputation of not becoming a social embarrassment.

Preparation Precedes Performance
In professional basketball, one of our favorite zebras is Shane Battier. He has been in the NBA for over 10 years and is currently playing for the Miami Heat. ... What makes Shane's unique is his competitive nature that has propelled him to spend many hours of studying the strengths and the weaknesses of his next opponent. This act of preparation has helped him and some of his teammates to gain a strategic advantage in the myriad of games. Beside being an exceptional three point shooter, Battier is also considered a first class defender and is usually assigned against the opposition's best shooter.

His favorite quote "... proper planning (or preparation) prevents poor performance tells us that he is quite focused on achieving the ultimate win, not the semantics of saying that he wants to win.

Click here, here and here on the other aspects that have transformed him to become an exceptional coach-player on the floor. ...

Preparation Creates Profit
During game time, Shane's comprehension of each player's proclivity and deficiencies has enabled him to positioned his team to succeed and his opponent to deteriorate in a dramatic fashion.

For example, Shane knows who he is guarding and what are his strengths and weaknesses regarding to their proclivity and deficiency.

He also understands how he fits into the grand offensive and defensive scheme of the floor team while always mindfully recognizes where is his opponent on the floor of the court in relationship to time and space.

Example:
His targeted object might have a habit of driving on the right side of the court 95% of the time and toward the middle the rest of the time while shootings with the left hand and never passing the ball. Shane might force him to go left and shoot with his right hand, knowing if he ever passes the ball, that it might be a forced pass.

If forced to defend against someone else in a poorly team defense situation, Battier would still know their offensive tendencies.

At the end of the game Battier usually have defended him well enough that the offensive damage by the opponent would be minimized.

On the offensive side, Battier knows when and where to set that screen play or that pick play that frees a certain teammate for an easy shot. In most occurrences, he is a superior three point shooter.

“In warfare, the strategic configurations of power do not exceed the unorthodox and orthodox, but the changes of the unorthodox and orthodox can never be completely exhausted. The unorthodox and orthodox mutually produce each other, just like an endless cycle. Who can exhaust them ?” - Art of War 5

In summary, this intense preparation enables him to be the catalyst or the force multiplier who makes other players better. ... Whenever Battier is on the court, the team scored more than the opponent. ... In the last championship game against the Spurs, Shane scored 18 points in 30 minutes.

One day, Mr. Battier will make a ultra class basketball coach/strategist.

To reach that 10+ year benchmark, the rookies should study the "Shane Battier's" model.

Side notes
Click here on our specific view of the Moneyball approach.

Knowing when to release a court performer one season sooner than one season later, is the essence of the art of evaluating personnel.

In the efficient economy, we are always evaluated by our last performance.

Friday, January 25, 2013

Playing the Moneyball Game

Click here for a non-tangible version of Moneyball.

I saw the movie and thought that it was ok. I know people who are A's fans. Some of them were just bandwagon jumpers until the A's went through a dry spell of losing seasons. Then, they left and pretended to be Giants fans. Most of them do not even live in Oakland.

Moneyball is a nice approach and it works until the big guys (esp. The Red Sox, The Devil Rays and others) learned the specifics of their approach and used it against the originator.

Protecting the Advantage
Here is a reminder from Jiang Tai Gong's Six Secret Teachings.