The New England Patriots Win!

Offense scores and thrills the crowds. Nonetheless, it is always the defense that wins the championships.

Regardless of the 28-3 deficit, the Patriots defense held their position on the third quarter, preventing the Falcons from increasing their lead while scoring the necessary points to tie the game. The Patriots later scored on a running play during overtime and prevailed in this "uber celebrated" sporting event.

Click here and click here for the NY Times perspective of this game.  ... Interestingly, they predicted the Falcons as the possible winner of the Super Bowl game.

It is time to return to the reality of life. 

Assessing Super Bowl 51 (Scenario Analysis) Updated

Source: Sox and Dawgs

(updated 02.05.17)

Those who are statistical fanatics, would prefer to examine specific data like the ranking of the receivers on 3rd down passing situations (based on the various field positions) and the quantity of knockdowns and sacks in a progression mode from the first game to the 18th game.

For this post, we decided not to dwell into the statistical specifics (the injuries, the quality of opposition, the depth, the offensive efficiency, the defensive efficiency, the individual offensive vs the opposing defensive match-up, the coaching comparisons, etc) of both teams, lets focus on a simple projection of this Super Bowl game.

The Grand Projection

Source: Fox6

Currently, the odds favored the New England to win this Championship game. 


The Pro-Patriots Scenario
Patriots win if the two or more of the following three conditions occurred:

• the Patriots scores first while implementing a slowdown methodical run game that prevents the Atlanta offense from getting on the field;
• the Falcons running backs cannot consistently penetrate toward the 2nd line of the defense; and
• the Falcons passing game is nullified if the Pats pass rush influences the Falcons quarterback.

We are surmising that the Patriot's game plan will be similar to these two following approaches
Approach#1: Influencing the opponent to implement their alternative offensive option
The Bill Belichick's Patriots defended the St Louis Rams by implementing a defensive backs-based defensive approach in 2002. Challenging them to run the ball while preventing them from passing the ball.    

Approach#2: Influencing the opponent to play defense
In 1991, NY Giants defended the Buffalo Bills by keeping their high scoring offense off the field.  They effectively ran the ball into the heart of the Buffalo's defense while preventing the Bills from getting the ball. Bill Belichick was the Giants defensive coordinator who ran a defensive backs-based "bend but don't break" defensive alignment where they dared the Buffalo offense to run the ball because they understood the tendencies of the opposing QB and the limitations of their offensive scheme.

Andre Reed, a former Buffalo Bills player also believes in this possibility.

While Atlanta possesses the capability to play "the comeback and catch up" offense,  we doubted if their defense can dominate the New England's offense.


The Pro-Falcons Scenario 
The Falcons could win as long if they score first and dominates the ball possession time factor by passing the ball and completing intermediate routes and long passes consistently with the tactical approach of numeric mismatches.  The consistency of positive passing will not only spread the opposing offense, but it will stage them to execute inside run plays

Atlanta could surprise New England with a hurry up no huddle offense approach on the first two drives of the game. If they score on both drives and if Patriots offense is not able to respond with their own scores, the NE fans will be expecting a long day.    

If Matt Ryan (Falcons QB) consistently hits his receivers on those intermediate to long routes, we expected Falcons to win. However, if the Pats defense are able to influence Ryan to run and pass or influences the Falcons to execute their run game , their chances to shutting down the Falcons offense increases.

The lynchpin of the Falcons offensive success begins with the center of the offensive line.  ... If the all-pro center Alex Mack is unable to play 100%, the Falcons passing game will falter. ... One can expect the New England's defense's to pressure him to break.  Do not expect the second string player behind Mack to perform in the same level as the starter.  ...  Historically, most second string players are usually unable to play up to that level in a championship game of this magnitude.
 
Predictions of Possible Scenarios
This game is a contest between the top scoring offense vs. the top scoring defense.

If the Falcons takes a minimum of 10 points lead into half time, the advantage favors them. 

If the Patriots takes a minimum of 10 points lead into half time, they will be grinding their opponent by running the ball into the heart of the Falcons defense.

If the game is even or near parity, the special teams on both sides become quite relevant.  Experience-wise, New England has a slight edge in this category.

In this competitive terrain, securing the two second advantage is the name of the game.  Research tells us that both teams have been able to adjust on the fly, especially if the game goes sideways for them.

If the New England Patriots win, the total score will be under 58.5 points.
However, if the Falcons win, the total score will be over 58.5 points (if the game becomes a shootout).

/// If the game did not go overtime, the total points would have been under 58.5.  Final Score:  NE Patriots 32  Atl. Falcons 28 

In summary, the Falcons possesses the grand advantage of winning regardless of the score because of their high powered offense, where the Pats would only prevail in an "under" game.



The Grand Football Maxim
Offense scores and thrills the crowds. Nonetheless, it is always the defense that wins the championships.


Side Notes
Before watching the game, wear your blue or gray hoodie and/or read your copy of Sunzi's Art of War. :)   This might evoke your strategic mind.  ... It might help you in the practice of knowing the next three moves in any endeavor that one pursues.  ... By knowing the next three possible moves, the successful strategist is ahead of the curve.

Staying Ahead of the Curve: Be Prepared (The New England Patriots Way)

(updated at 02.01.16)

Successful strategists have always performed "scenario planning before testing the scope of an untested concept" and is always prepared for the best case scenarios and the worst case scenarios.

The Patriots Way

Regardless of the last week's Patriots defeat against the Broncos,  The Patriots were prepared for of a technological breakdown.

" ... In fact, the Patriots sometimes stick with the old-school method of taking photographs and printing them out. Belichick told reporters that they use the photos as a "backup," calling them "more dependable" than the tablets. "

Comments From Belichick

"It is what it is," Belichick said, via MassLive. "It's a pretty common problem. We have ways of working through it. There's really nothing you can do. It's not like the headsets where the other sides are really affected. You deal with what you deal with.

"We have had it at home, we have had it on the road, other teams have had it, it's a fairly common problem that didn't affect the outcome of the game --- in no way. That's just part of it. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't."

But Microsoft defended their product. According to the company, the problem was related to the network -- not the tablets.

"Our team on the field has confirmed the issue was not related to the tablets themselves but rather an issue with the network," Microsoft said in a statement, per MassLive. "We worked with our partners who manage the network to ensure the issue was resolved quickly."

Click here for the rest of the story.

Historical Notes
In 2011, technology slowly expanded into the NFL.  To many, the clipboard and the three-ring binder playbooks might be obsolete.

It is important to know what to do next when the power is off.

The Strategy of Psychology 
Most people remembered visual images on a short term basis while some people retained  data by using an integrated approach of their visual and tactile sense. Others just used their visual and audio senses.

The Compass Principles

• To stay ahead of the curve,  one stays focused on their objective while being prepared for all tactical possibilities.
• One always performs "scenario planning" of a new concept or technology before utilizing it in the field.

Comments From the Compass Desk 
Most ambitious non-strategic people are not able to anticipate ahead because they do not think about the strategic factors, the tactical factors, the specificity of the tactical factors and/or the tactical factors that lead to the strategic factors.  They merely contemplate on the current moment.

Assessing the Game Factors for the Super Bowl Game Before Playing the Risk Game

(minor update: 19:18 hrs)

If you are pondering on wagering on the game, read the following post. Then reflect on it before acting on your decision.

“These are the ways that successful strategists are victorious. They cannot be spoken or transmitted in advance. ... Before the game, they resolve in their conference room that they will be victorious, have determined that the majority of factors are in their favor. Before the game they resolve in their conference room that they will not be victorious, have determined a few factors are in their favor.

If those who find that the majority of factors favor them, will be victorious while those who have found few factors favor them will be defeated, what about someone who finds no factors in their favor?

When observing from this viewpoint, victory and defeat will be apparent.”

- Art of War 1 

source: NY Daily News

By using this season statistics, the football fanatics center on the possible factors on why each team  (The Patriots or The Seahawks) could win this game, before wagering on the game.

While watching some of their previous season games, we were focused on the various categories of match ups and whether each team is able to adjust to the psychological pressure of a high-performance game situation. In our case, we did it while sipping a cup of Dragon Well tea.

New England Offense vs. Seattle's Defense
New England's has a efficient offense with a diverse set of talented players. They possessed a super quarterback (QB), a wide arrays of running back (RB's), a future hall of fame tight ends (TE's) and a group of slightly "above-average" receivers corp. The effectiveness of their passing game is usually focused on the first fifteen yardages from the line of scrimmage. 

The New England's running game is consisted of many talented game changers that Seattle has to spend an abundance of time concluding which running back will get the majority of runs and how they will handle New England's up tempo, no huddle approach. (There is nothing more lethal than a 250 lb tailback who runs angry.)

Seattle usually runs a simple defensive "bend but don't break" scheme that rushes four linemen at the opposing quarterback. Beside base zone coverage, it also includes a Cover-3 formation that is designed to prevent the opposing offense from utilizing a long vertical pass play. 

We expected the Seattle's cornerbacks to physically contain and cover the New England's wide receivers within the first 10 to 15 yards of space  

If the Seattle's strong safety (SS)  plays tight to the box (the first ten yards of space from the defensive side of the line of scrimmage) , the viewers should expect the New England Patriots TE to run a medium pass pattern. In most cases, we do not expect the Seattle's linebackers to properly cover him due to his explosive speed and his range. Simultaneously we believed that the Seattle's defense backs would not be able to contain him from catching the ball because of his size.

Expect the Seattle defense to attempt to strip the ball from the ball carrier while utilizing certain containment and coverage plays to remove New England's game changers during gametime.

In the red zone, New England's offense will consider the mismatch of TE  vs. the under-sized safety. 

  
Seattle Seahawks Offense vs. New England Defense
The strength of Seattle's offense is running the ball up the middle with different tactical variations.   Using that set of plays to stage the read option or vice-versa.  

The Seattle team has also successfully mastered the read option quite well that it has become a near-automatic yard-gainer . 

However, we expected that the New England Patriots defense to have already mastered the keys to neutralizing that specific approach. Expect the defensive ends and outside linebackers to punish the Seattle quarterback each time he decides to run the ball.  Do not be surprised if Seattle changes their offensive keys for the purpose of misdirecting the defensive play callers.

As long as the ratio of running the ball is greater than the passing the ball, Seattle will prevail. 

Seattle WR's are slightly above average at best. They play well within their offensive scheme while not possessing a long bomb threat.  New England's defense should "shutdown" the Seattle receivers with zero problems. 

The "wild card" factors: the QB being spontaneous in chaotic situations, the TE's and the RBs as the receivers.

New England is superb in term of never showing the same defensive formation or alignment during the game. We would not be surprised if Seattle runs a slow tempo, no huddle approach for the purpose of controlling the ball possession. 

Comments From The Compass Desk 
In most games, a team is always one injury away from losing its initial competitive disposition. (Seattle has a few players that are slightly hurt.) 

Remove the offensive and/or defensive game changer's from each team, their performance immediately drops  

Always attack the position when the starting player being replaced by a reserve player for the obvious reason. It is quite rare that the reserve player has the game experience or the athletic prowess of the starter.

Regardless that Coach Belichick is one of the best coaches in preparing a team to play a highly pressured game. Occasionally, he would implement various unorthodox tactics just to un-nerve the competition. We expected him to run a gadget play or two that might surprise the Seattle's defense.  Most likely, he spent many days ago, studying the Seattle's losses especially against Dallas and San Diego. 

Seattle utilizes a simple game approach that is focused on out-executing the opponent while New England fluid game approach is centered on out-strategizing and out-executing their competitors.

Subverting the opposing defense to the act of thinking and reacting is what New England's offense based on.  Influencing the decision makers to make poor decisions is the highest form of the competitive strategy game. 

While Seattle's defense executes a "bend and don't break" tactical approach, their linebackers (LBs) and SS will not be able to pass-cover NE's TEs unless they knock him out. The LBs have the difficult job of deciding whether to defend the pass or the run.  If they are stacked 6 or more in the box, The pass play is on. ... If they stacked 5 or less players in the box, The run play is on.  Forcing the linebackers and the SS to play the guessing game could disrupt the psychological continuity of the defense.  

Based on schedules, Seattle has the advantage of playing and prevailing over a higher quality of competition while the New England played in a "soft" division and a moderately less tougher schedule this past season.

It would be interesting if Seattle's implements a successful trick play that "shocks and awes" the New England's defense. (Gadget plays is not the norm of the Seattle's team.  They did surprised Green Bay in the January 2015's NFC championship game) with a fake field goal.

We think that the game is going to be a defensive battle and that both teams are able to play "shut down" defense in the red zone.  Therefore, we expected the kickers on both sides to be busy.

If New England takes the initial lead and wins the game, then the possibility of a high-scoring game would be quite relevant. However, if Seattle takes the initial lead and wins the game, then the possibility of a low-scoring game would be quite relevant. No one really knows.  The game must be played.  

We expected that the game referees to let the players play.  There would be very little penalty calling unless it is obvious and blatant.   ... In some cases, the noise factor might favor the Seattle team.

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After studying the stats and the projected match-ups, we projected the total score for this game to be lower than 47 points.  Click here on the latest spread on this game.


Latest update (19:18 hrs)

New England Patriots  28   Seattle Seahawks 24

In a game of near parity and inches, neutralizing the opponent's strength while capitalizing on their errors is the dao to victory.  

Free Safety Malcolm Butler intercepted the QB pass at the end zone which preserved the victory for the New England  Patriots.

In the field of observation, chance has always favored the mindfully prepared.   ... The successful strategists have always believed that victory loves the prepared.  ... In summary, the "prepared players" factor have always decided the game winner. ... 

Click here for the non-obvious reason why the Patriots won.

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Minor Points  
Retrospectively, the gist behind any victory begins with "the will of the mind (xin-yi)."  


The ranking of the "will" practice (from an ascending order): 

• the will to be centered;
• the will to prepare; 
• the will to perform, to persist and to endure;  
• the will to win; and 
• the will to restart the process. 

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Succeeding in the Information Economy with the Right Practices: The Belichick's Hoodie

The Myth 
Regardless of the categories of sports, there are those fanatics who liked to imitate their favorite coaches and players for a myriad of reasons.

In the region of New England, there are the hardcore fans who followed Bill Belichick's habit of wearing his trademark hoodie 24/7 for the purpose of being like "Bill".

In most cases, it would be a miracle if any of them can emulate his strategic thinking or strategic decision management skills under duress

The Hoodie
While you can click here, here  and here for more trivia on wearing the Bill Belichick's hoodie, we recommended that you click here for the reason of understanding the psychology behind this practice of wearing the same (or similar) outfit everyday. 

You can secure more information on buying a Belichick's hoodie by clicking here.  I usually preferred the blue one.

We cannot guarantee that you will successfully triumph in your numerous ventures by wearing a Belichick's type of hoodie.  But your competition might somehow remember you regardless of the results.

Side Note: American Giant of San Francisco produces a high-quality "Made in USA" sweat shirt.

What Really Works? The Walsh's Tradition of Scripting
Some people believed that they can be triumphant just by imitating the habits of their idols without ever understanding the true reasons behind the person. 

Many of us at Compass360 CG  preferred to mindfully implement the process of Assessing, Positioning and Influencing the situation before ever utilizing the Bill Walsh's tradition of scripting a game plan. We understand the strategic and tactical reasoning, the means and methods and the situations for applying it

Click here on the understanding the basics of scripting.

"In planning, never a useless move. In strategy, no step is in vain. ..." - Chen Hao

The subtle objective behind having a good "starter play" script is devising a sequence of scripted plays that quietly achieves a multiplicity of tactical objectives. This will assist the playcaller to make the proper adjustment play.


The Benefits
Conclusively, the constant implementation of scripting a plan will enable the practicing strategists to understand the sequence for meeting their goal.

"In the field of observation, fortune favors the prepared mind." - Louis Pasteur 

From our experience and other people's experience, this pragmatic practice psychologically focuses the strategic implementer  to stay centered on the targeted objective while being mindfully aware of one's own terrain and beyond.

The Truth
The myth of the hoodie reminded us of the Art of War Cult who carried their copy of Sunzi's Art Of War wherever they travel and for whatever strange reasons, thinking that the possession of that book would offered them an immediate strategic edge.  

As many of us know, that is a pure myth, just like wearing a hoodie or a red-colored shirt will make you a winner.

Learning how to script a gameplan will make the implementer a better strategic thinker while wearing the hoodie will only keep him/her warm.

When one can assess, position and influence the configuration of their Big Tangible Picture and beyond, the scripting of the tactical plays becomes easier.

The Compass Practice
I have no knowledge whether some of my fellow associates have ever wore a hoodie while standing during the scripting of a plan. But it is a good practice for centering oneself to a task at hand.  Listening to a murmur of Mozart's piano concertos and Bach's keyboard concertos while scripting the strategic plan and sipping a cup of Dragon Well tea will indirectly increase your productivity.

We will post other relevant, but efficient Compass Practices in the future.


Side Note: Viewing the Big Tangible Picture
In ancient China, some of the elite desktop strategists understand their Big Tangible Picture (the BTP) by reading Jiang Tai Gong's Six Secret Teachings and Wuzi's classic (Art of War) before ever concluding a grand decision of pursuing a collaboration or a conflict with another party. 

The essays of Sunzi's, Jiang Tai Gong's and Wuzi are found in Dr. Ralph D. Sawyer's translation of The Seven Military Classics of Ancient China.  

Our experience tells us that the superior but pragmatic practice is assessing the singularity of the Big Tangible Picture before integrating one's strategic script with the various strategic and tactical principles from The Eight (not Seven) Military Classics of Ancient China (Seven Classics + Sun Bin's Military Methods).

Side Note
Go Patriots! Beat the Colts.

(update) 
The Visiting Patriots defeats the Colts  42-20 on Sunday the 16th of Nov..

The Dao of Competitiveness (New England Patriots and Spygate)

In terms of the professional food chain, spying is supposed to be the second oldest profession.  

The amateurs have a proclivity of claiming that spying is unethical and unfair. Regardless of their view, these people are either idealistically ignorant or quietly being a hypocrite. 

However most historical dynasties succeeded in their endeavor due to their ability to secure "tangible" intelligence about their opposition.

It has been rumored that some NFL teams have cheated by spying on their competition. Catching them in action is a different story.  It was a surprise that the great Bill Belichick was caught for "spygating."  It was a rarity because someone err in their operations.

Bill Cowher, a former competing coach admitted that he ordered some of his staff members to steal the opposition's signals during the game. 

“We didn’t lose the game because of any Spygate, because of them having any additional things,” Cowher said. “I think if they’re guilty of anything, they’re guilty of arrogance, because they were told not to do something. But it was something that everybody does. The only thing they got caught [was] doing it with a camera. We had people that always tried to steal signals. Stealing someone’s signals was a part of the game, and everybody attempted to do that.

“Part of the things we had [were] wristbands that we were using to do it. It’s not even an element anymore because of the communications that take place on the field to the quarterback, to the linebacker. So it’s an element of the game that doesn’t exist, and really, what happened when we lost that game is they outplayed us, and it has nothing to do with stealing signals, or cheating, or anything else. They were a better football team on that day.”   - CBS Local

He also didn't think much of Spygate.


At this level of competition, some people do whatever it take to win. 


Side Note 
Bill Parcells (Belichick's ex-boss) also accused Bill Walsh, the great SF 49ers coach of cheating too. Without pristine evidence, his accusation had no grounds.

Know Ahead. Act Before 
In the game of baseball, some teams would have their coaches or their scouts stealing signals between the pitcher and the catcher or the third base coach and the hitter. 

There has been a rumor that Bobby Thomson received some foreknowledge on what was the next pitch from Ralph Branca. It lead to his game-winning home run that helped the New York Giants to win the National League pennant at 3:58 p.m. EST on October 3, 1951.

Other Examples of Extreme Competitiveness 
To compete correctly in the information economy, countries must have their intelligence agencies.

Certain business companies have been known to hire ex-spooks and former law enforcement officials for irregular projects.  We will touch more on that topic later.

Click here for a high tech approach for stealing data.

Compass Prediction

"Good Artists Copy, Great Artists Steal."  - Pablo Picasso

Those who cannot innovate, will steal or copy. 

In our moderately innovative economy, the non-innovative companies will be building cyber armies of spies to gain the advantage. If caught, they will go to court, work out a deal and everyone might be happy.  ... Life goes on.

Comments From The Compass Desk
If you do not know what your competition is doing, ask yourself if your competition knows what you are doing.

Knowing how to utilize the acquired intelligence and having the resources to capitalize on it, is the name of the game. ... In some instances, some people do not have the audacity to make the big move.

Regardless of what the members of the peanut gallery are saying about the "spygating" incident, we are admirers of Bill Belichick's and his many coaching achievements. 

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How to Build a Unified Team (From the View of the New England Patriots and the San Francisco 49ers)

(updated on 11.09.13 @ 5:55 pm)

We presumed that you have heard about the rookie hazing incident in the Miami Dolphins locker room.  However, It is not an isolated incident especially in the camps of the New Orleans Saints and the Oakland Raiders.  While some players referred to it as a bonding process, one NY Giants player indirectly described it as a part of the maturing process to becoming a professional football player. 

There are always a few minor pranks and rituals, but the players in professional football teams like the Philadelphia Eagles,  the New England Patriots and the San Francisco Forty Niners do not pursue the avenue of the extreme. 

In the NFL, the playoff contending teams are always focused on winning not waste their time on unproductive practices.

The Bill Walsh's Solution
Bill Walsh. the late architect of the West Coast Offense system, has always believed that it is important to focus the rookies on learning and mastering the specifics of "the pro game".

" ... The late Bill Walsh banished rookie hazing when he first started coaching the team in 1979. He wanted rookies contributing right away and didn’t want them bogged down with thinking about anything more than football.

It was just one of many innovations emanating from Walsh. Over the last 25 years, I never heard of any rookie hazing, which, of course, doesn’t mean there wasn’t any. But from afar, it just never seemed to be a part of the culture. There have been pranksters like former guard Kevin Gogan, who used to disrupt the offensive line meetings constantly.

Gogan’s aimed many of his pranks at Tim Hanshaw, who got his share of ribbing and an old-fashioned spit wad to the back of the head from Gogan, who once graced the cover of Sports Illustrated as the NFL’s dirtiest player. But Gogan was not a racist, and when his former offensive line coach Bobb McKittrick was dying of cancer, Gogan made amends to him.

Ask around the 49ers’ locker room and the only requirement for rookies seems to be to provide cans of chew and to bring Jamba juice on Friday’s.

Tackle Joe Staley said rookies used to pay for some dinners, but the tab was never ridiculous. Over the years, rookies would lug the pads and helmets of veterans.

“We don’t even do that any more,” Staley said. “Players should never embarrass people for their own bravado.”

At least from the outside looking in, the spirit of Bill Walsh on hazing seems to live on within the 49ers’ locker room.  ... "  - SFGate.com 

The Sun Bin's View on 
Organizational Unification
"An army that is able to overcome great adversity  is able to unite the people's minds. - paraphrased from  Sun Bin's Military Methods, 22 

Whenever a team or an organization is able to overcome obstacles, the principals begin to understand that there is a grander cause that is greater then themselves.

Final Thoughts
Regardless of some people's view, we believed that that practice of hazing is not good for any organization. History has shown that a consistency of team victories is the most effective approach to unify a team,

We will talk more about the other approaches to unifying a team in a future post.

Side notes

• Click here for a thorough view on Sun Bin.
• Click here on another innovation of Bill Walsh.

The Dao of the Unorthodox (Surprise) Approach or Play #6: The No-Huddle

The success of New England Patriots no-huddle offense can be based on Tom Brady the Pat's QB understanding of their competitor's tendencies in certain situations.  

Side note: We are presuming that this Belichick senior advisor who specializes in exotic strategic activities, is the "brain trust" behind that specific task.

Their no-huddle approach is based on the following steps

• Calls a specific formation (with a base set of tactical plays) from the line of scrimmage; 
• Reads the defensive reaction of the competition; and 
• Responds by adjusting the routes to the reaction.

Primary receivers run their designated route or the alternative route while secondary receivers either execute their "check and release" routes. Proper observation of the competitor's defensive alignment is the key to their adjustment.

This "read and respond" approach only works if the play caller's team have prepared themselves by mastering the entire set of relevant scenario adjustment plays for each formation.

Notes from the Compass Desk

The no-huddle approach has been used in the military and the other professional sports.  It is only a matter of time that certain business organizations utilize a similar approach to dominate their marketplace.

Knowing the objective and the approach for defeating a competitor is slightly easy.  The first step is knowing the tendencies of the competition.  Understanding the tendencies allows one to know the objective of one's competitor.  

Building the executable means that connected the modes to the approach is the other key to building one's strategic power.

You do know how to do both tasks.  Do you?

Pragmatic Practices (8): The Dao of the Strategists

New England Patriots is one of the most successful professional football teams in the NFL.  For the last five seasons (2007), they have  won 64 regular games out of 78 games. Since 2000, the Patriots have won 139 games out of 192 games.

Some parts of the Pats success can be contributed to their scouting activities.  No one outside of the Patriots organization, knows the true size of their intelligence collection team. 

In summary,  their success was due to their drafts and a few good free agent signings.

The Dao of Strategy: Collecting Data

Fwiw, true blue strategists do not always use search engines to collect data. They understand that the truth is usually not displayed for public viewing.  Their operations team is always on the field, collecting relevant intelligence and probing for the next gold mine.

Questions

• So what is your process for collecting data?  
• Do you ask your inner circle or your favorite social networks for their opinions? 
• Do you prefer to go to your favorite search engine for their  "fixed" viewpoint?
• What is the side effect of each approach?

In summary, it is prevalent to get the best quality intelligence before assessing.

Assessing Before Planning

• Do you ever plan without assessing the situation?   
• Do you ever assess your data without verifying the quality of the information? 
• Do you ever assess the criterion of your information collection process?

The Compass View
Regardless of your answers, many people preferred to operate from the seat of their pants.  Due to their love to improvise and invent, they usually go with their gut instinct.  This specific feeling enthralls them.    

Exception
Depending on the situation, the side effect of this marginally-efficient practice is a prolonged time line and a protracted budget.   

In an extreme uncertain situation,  the amateurs regularly lose their motivation and quit.  We have seen it repeatedly. Those who persist and persevere, usually have the experience and the resources to continue.

Summary
In complex times, one cannot properly assess and plan without collecting the right amount of tangible data.

Those who constantly prevail in many of their endeavors, usually have the superior skills  in the areas of strategic assessment, operational planning and tactical adaptation.  Sometimes, they just succeed because of the predictability of their situation.  Occasionally, chance plays a  role.

If one wants to succeed in their endeavor, it helps to know how to collect information.