Assessing Strategically: Beating the Odds (Leicester City Secures the Upset)

Source: Economist.com
(updated at 18:18 hrs)

For this week, victory wears a blue shirt.

A Perspective From The Sunzi's Victory Temple 

'It is by scoring many points (factors)  that  one conclude the right choice before the actual decision in a rehearsal in their own mind;  it is by scoring few  points  that  one  conclude the incorrect choice before the actual event  in a rehearsal  in their own mind.  The choice which scores many  points  will be the better decision;  the  choice which  scores few points will not  be the decision,  let  alone the  choice which scores no  points  at  all.  When I make observations on the  basis of this, the outcome of the decision becomes apparent."   

- Art of War (Paraphrased from Roger Ames's Sunzi's The Art of Warfare)

Beating the Odds 

Recently, the Leicester City Foxes won the English Premier League (EPL) Championship. 

The Economist.com writer declared that three factors that enabled the Foxes to win were: their tactical guile; the squad's stability and the poor performance by the other competitors.

Using those factors, is it possible to predict a sporting team's seasonal success? ...  (If you believe that, we have a bridge to sell you.)

The Abstract Behind the Factors

The tactical guile factor works when the team has superior advantage of tactical match-ups. 

The quality of players establishes the tactics. The quality of tactics concludes the category of plays that would be used.

Good recruitment of very good players who are willing to listen to the coach, minimum injuries and having quality bench players determine the quality of   the team stability factor. 

The reasons behind the poor performance of the other competitors are irrelevant for the moment. (Side note: If one focuses on exceeding the performance standard of their strategic situation, the score takes care of itself.)

Understanding the tectonic level behind the factors does offer a technical advantage for the perceptive strategist who is also ambitious. 

Knowing the Odds

A few bettors took the 5000 to 1 odds and won. 

Was it luck? Based on the bettors response, there were zero calculations on their part. This sort of wagering reminds us of those who play the lottery.

In the randomness of life, chance and the lack of information rarely ever favors the "naive" amateur speculator. 

Click here on ESPN's story on the five turning points for Leicester and click here on the graph for Leicester City's incredible odds

Side Event 

Tottenham's draw against Chelsea also helped Leicester City's in securing the championship.  

The Compass Desk

Does wagering on long odds by assessing on a few strategic factors occasionally guarantee a near-automatic financial win?  We doubted that. In the strategy game, we preferred a minimum of five strategic factors.

The perceptively smart strategist always "read" the strategic configuration of the grand situation before concluding any decisions.

The Li Quan Perspective on "The Victory Temple’s"
"Those who excel in warfare contend for advantage with others only after determining through temple calculations that they will be successful.

Attacking the rebellious and embracing the distant, toppling the lost and solidifying the extant and uniting the weak and attacking the benighted are all manifestations.

 The interior and exterior becoming estranged, as in the case of the Shang and Chou armies, is what is referred to as having determined victory through temple calculations before engaging in combat.

According to T'ai-yi Tun-chia assessment method, *anything above sixty a majority, anything below sixty is  a minority.  ... In all these cases, victory and defeat are easily seen.* " 

- Li Quan's  T'ai-pai Yin-ching (Dr Ralph Sawyer's translation)

Side note 

Click here on Sam Allardyce, the manager of West Ham football club, perspective on footballing success.

Observation

The smart and risk-averse speculators usually pursue "stable" Standard and Poor 500 funds for profit instead of wagering on sporting events.

Assessing the Lottery by Estimating One's Chance of Winning (updated)

(updated at 03.27.16)

Heaven knows that there are some people who enjoyed the experience of risk-taking while "quietly" loathing the concept of gambling with bad odds.  It does not matter what the odds are because they believed that they have a chance to win.

Playing the Lottery
Click here on why playing any type of lottery (Powerball, etc.)  is not a good wager.  The odds of winning a substantial prize are so low.

(updated at 03.26.2016)

Everyone is always looking for some type of advantage. So, what should the budding gambler do?   ... Knowing the abstract theory on Lotto always helps.

Click here on calculating one's chance of winning the lottery. Click here on one's amateur view of winning the lottery.

Click here on a 2016 Wired.com article on why it is quite difficult to win the Power Ball lottery.



Compass Principle (1): Identifying the Odd Number 
Edge Over Odds. The Odd Number Wins

Determining the right quantity of odd numbers on a lotto card is one theory.   It begins by identifying the configuration of the situation and always focusing on some level of balance. 

In the game of 21 blackjack, the right odd number usually wins.


Compass Principle (2): Knowing When to Estimate and When to Assess
Assessing strategically allows one to be a pragmatic opportunist.

It begins by knowing the dao of the factors and recognizing the tectonic level behind the "factors" model.

Compass Principle (3): Playing the Scenario Modeling Game
 “98 percent of my time thinking about 2 percent probabilities."   ... It becomes the alpha priority especially in the area of managing risk in different situations. 

The successful strategists are always perform scenario modeling and forecasting before implementing a strategic decision. 

Side Note

Click here on the outcome of a poor decision after playing the lottery.