Succeeding in the Info Economy: Assessing a Problem With the Phoenix Checklist

The Phoenix Checklist provides context-free questions that enable you to look at a problem from many different angles. Sometimes, problems aren’t as easy to understand as they may seem at face value—especially problems that are inherently multi-faceted. These questions will help you clear ambiguities and pinpoint the unknown unknowns associated with a problem.

 The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) developed this framework.

 The Phoenix Checklist is comprised of two components:

• A list of questions used to define problems
• A list of questions to define the plan to solve the problems

Here is the Phoenix Checklist in its entirety:

 THE PROBLEM

1. Why is it necessary to solve the problem?
2. What benefits will you receive by solving the problem?
3. What is the unknown?
4. What is it you don’t yet understand?
5. What is the information you have?
6. Is the information sufficient? Or is it insufficient? Or redundant? Or contradictory?
7. Where are the boundaries of the problem?
8. What isn’t the problem?
9. Should you draw a diagram of the problem? A figure?
10. Can you separate the various parts of the problem? Can you write them down? What are the relationships of the parts of the problem? What are the constants of the problem?
11. Have you seen this problem before?
12. Have you seen this problem in a slightly different form? Do you know a related problem?
13. Try to think of a familiar problem having the same or a similar unknown.
14. Suppose you find a problem related to yours that has already been solved. Can you use it? Can you use its method?
15. Can you restate your problem? How many different ways can you restate it? More general? More specific? Can the rules be changed?
16. What are the best, worst and most probable cases you can imagine?

# Side note: 
The Sunzi's Victory Temple method is one way to identifying the answers to those questions.

THE PLAN

1. Can you solve the whole problem? Part of the problem?
2. What would you like the resolution to be? Can you picture it?
3. How much of the unknown can you determine?
4. Can you derive something useful from the information you have?
5. Have you used all the information?
6. Have you taken into account all essential notions in the problem?
7. Can you separate the steps in the problem-solving process? Can you determine the correctness of each step?
8. What creative thinking techniques can you use to generate ideas? How many different techniques?
9. Can you see the result? How many different kinds of results can you see?
10. How many different ways have you tried to solve the problem?
11. What have others done?
12. Can you intuit the solution? Can you check the result?
13. What should be done? How should it be done?
14. Where should it be done?
15. When should it be done?
16. Who should do it?
17. What do you need to do at this time?
18. Who will be responsible for what?
19. Can you use this problem to solve some other problem?
20. What are the unique set of qualities that makes this problem what it is and none other?
21. What milestones can best mark your progress?
22. How will you know when you are successful?

# In addition to the Phoenix Checklist, here are some other questions to aid with the problem definition and solving process:

1. Are there other paths to the end I’m looking for? Write down the obvious way to get from where you are to where you want to go. Then ignore it. Come up with as many other paths as you can think of for getting there.
2. Can I change any of the variables? List all the variables you see (how much time it takes, who is involved, whether to do something yourself or hire someone to do it, etc.) and play with changing them. What effect could that have?
3. What information do I need? Sometimes problems exist because we don’t have enough information to solve them. Identifying what information you need and what information you’re missing gives you a starting point to change that.
4. How many solutions can I come up with? As you think of more solutions to a problem, you may increase the likelihood of thinking of one that is optimally effective.
5. How would ______ solve this? If there is someone who is known for solving things like this, ask yourself how they would solve it. What unique perspectives would that person have that would enable them to solve the problem?
6. How many problems am I encountering here? There are many situations where what seems like one problem is actually a variety of problems bundled together. When you are trying to solve more than one problem at any given time, you are making things far more difficult than they need to be. Instead, take the time to identify each individual problem that you are facing. Tackle one problem at a time and then move onto the next.
7. What seem to be your main obstacles to reaching the goal? Think of getting from where you are to where you want to go as a process flow. Map out a step-by-step ideal process flow of how you could get there. Then look at that process and identify the obstacles. Where are those obstacles?
8. How can I improve this process? Instead of looking at it from a problem perspective, look at it as a process improvement exercise. What steps and processes can you make easier and faster to perform? How would you accomplish this?
9. Who has done this before? If someone else has already invented the wheel, don’t bang your head bloody trying to create it again. Who else has been up against the problem you’re encountering? Can you talk to them? Read about how they approached it.
10. How could ____ relate to my problem? What are some concepts that you could associate with the challenge that would most likely produce useful connections and insights?

 Reference:

1. Michalko, M. (2006) Thinkertoys: A handbook of creative-thinking techniques (2nd edition). Available at: https://www.amazon.com/Thinkertoys-Handbook-Creative-Thinking-Techniques-2nd/dp/1580087736/ (Accessed: 12 February 2017).

Source: Idea genius




Click here for previous "Phoenix Checklist" posts.

The Best Practices of Desktop Strategists: Plan Your Work. Then Work Your Plan

Updated at 11:18 hrs

Plan your work. Then work your plan. Does that sound simple?

How can one plan their work when he or she does not know the basics for building a plan?  Better yet, does he or she know the configuration of the situation in terms of connectivity and consistency?

The Compass Process

Step One: Assess.   
Click here for the basics of assessing 

Step Two: Positioning Strategically by Planning and Preparing
Following is an abridged  listing of questions that the newbie project strategist should ask him or herself?

• What is the first step for planning a project?
• When does one establishes the metrics for their goals and objectives?
• When does one establishes the priorities for their goals and objectives?
• When does one establish the risk points for their goals and objectives?

Without the knowledge of those basics, the timeline will not be met and the project costs will escalated.  The project strategist would be lucky if half of the project requirements are met.

Some of our associates have suggested to me that the newbie strategist should take a class on strategic project management while reading the "Eight Strategy Classics" (Seven Military Classics of Ancient China + Sun Bin's Military Methods) during their off hours. It is that simple.  ... 

Step Three : Influence the Setting With One's Strategic Position
We will cover this specific topic in a future post.

Succeeding in the Information Economy By Identifying the Profile (of the Intention)

Source: Bloomberg
updated at 0:16

Click here on how the U.S. intelligence agencies are attempting to "understand" the predominant paradigm of Putin's. 

The Objective
"Concentrate every effort on subduing its heart and mind." 
- Sun Bin C33  [Military Methods]

The Tactic 
"The expert in using the military has three basic strategies which he applies: 

• the best strategy is to attack the enemy's reliance upon acuteness of mind; 
• the second is to attack the enemy's claim that he is waging a just war; and 
• the last is to attack the enemy's battle position (shi). 

  - Sun Bin , Chapter 34 (Fragments),   [ Sun Bin's The Art of Warfare ] 

For What it is Worth 

Their target is an above average chess player (he knows how to get past the first 20 moves without any self destruction in his opening moves and his middle game.), a former military intelligence operator, and a former leader of the country's intelligence agency.  Do you think that he was strategically prepared for some sort of psychological manipulation from his competitor? 

What do you think is the immediate counter to that approach? ... Click here for a hint.  

By seeing the configuration of the given Big Tangible Picture, the successful strategists know the gist of the approach and the executable of the means.

How to Build a Unified Team (From the View of the New England Patriots and the San Francisco 49ers)

(updated on 11.09.13 @ 5:55 pm)

We presumed that you have heard about the rookie hazing incident in the Miami Dolphins locker room.  However, It is not an isolated incident especially in the camps of the New Orleans Saints and the Oakland Raiders.  While some players referred to it as a bonding process, one NY Giants player indirectly described it as a part of the maturing process to becoming a professional football player. 

There are always a few minor pranks and rituals, but the players in professional football teams like the Philadelphia Eagles,  the New England Patriots and the San Francisco Forty Niners do not pursue the avenue of the extreme. 

In the NFL, the playoff contending teams are always focused on winning not waste their time on unproductive practices.

The Bill Walsh's Solution
Bill Walsh. the late architect of the West Coast Offense system, has always believed that it is important to focus the rookies on learning and mastering the specifics of "the pro game".

" ... The late Bill Walsh banished rookie hazing when he first started coaching the team in 1979. He wanted rookies contributing right away and didn’t want them bogged down with thinking about anything more than football.

It was just one of many innovations emanating from Walsh. Over the last 25 years, I never heard of any rookie hazing, which, of course, doesn’t mean there wasn’t any. But from afar, it just never seemed to be a part of the culture. There have been pranksters like former guard Kevin Gogan, who used to disrupt the offensive line meetings constantly.

Gogan’s aimed many of his pranks at Tim Hanshaw, who got his share of ribbing and an old-fashioned spit wad to the back of the head from Gogan, who once graced the cover of Sports Illustrated as the NFL’s dirtiest player. But Gogan was not a racist, and when his former offensive line coach Bobb McKittrick was dying of cancer, Gogan made amends to him.

Ask around the 49ers’ locker room and the only requirement for rookies seems to be to provide cans of chew and to bring Jamba juice on Friday’s.

Tackle Joe Staley said rookies used to pay for some dinners, but the tab was never ridiculous. Over the years, rookies would lug the pads and helmets of veterans.

“We don’t even do that any more,” Staley said. “Players should never embarrass people for their own bravado.”

At least from the outside looking in, the spirit of Bill Walsh on hazing seems to live on within the 49ers’ locker room.  ... "  - SFGate.com 

The Sun Bin's View on 
Organizational Unification
"An army that is able to overcome great adversity  is able to unite the people's minds. - paraphrased from  Sun Bin's Military Methods, 22 

Whenever a team or an organization is able to overcome obstacles, the principals begin to understand that there is a grander cause that is greater then themselves.

Final Thoughts
Regardless of some people's view, we believed that that practice of hazing is not good for any organization. History has shown that a consistency of team victories is the most effective approach to unify a team,

We will talk more about the other approaches to unifying a team in a future post.

Side notes

• Click here for a thorough view on Sun Bin.
• Click here on another innovation of Bill Walsh.

More on How to Become Strategically Two Moves Ahead of the Competition

Lets begin this post with the question.  ...  

It is an interesting question for those who are competitive.  Now, click here for part one of the answer (It offered the perspective from the Art of War and another viewpoint from the game of Go (Weiqi).)

The Next to the Final Stage of the Answer
This is not a game theory situation, where there is a direct contest between two principals and everything is near-obvious.  

In a competitive situation where there are many pertinent strategic and tactical factors.  
Finding what relevant factors is in play is the challenge. 

Depending on the quality of information and the number of participating competitors,  the situation could become quite complex.

The clues to this approach can be found in the first two sections of Jiang Tai Gong (JTG's) Six Secret Teachings and chapter one of the Art of War.

Step One: Understand the scope of the situation.  
By being two steps ahead of the game,  the successful strategists can play the Jiang Tai Gong approach of pre-positioning and luring.  

You can find a good example in the 2010's Samurai movie classic "The 13 Assassins" where the protagonists knew the route, the strategic power and the tendencies of their target. 

Then, they altered their target's grand setting for the purpose of influencing him toward their lethal trap while transforming other portions of their own setting for the purpose of gaining a higher state of strategic power.

Sun Bin at Mai Ling is a good historical example.  ...  We will post the additional steps in the future.

Minor Jottings
Unlike what the Cult of the Art of War espouses to their followers, one cannot learn this skill from reading the Art of War.  It offers to the novices a mere glimmer of hope.   As many of us know, that the attribute of hope is not a strategy or a destination.  

Retrospectively one needs a methodology that offers an overview that depicts the connectivity and the tangibility of their situation.  ... A good methodology emphasizes on the practice of assessing, positioning and influencing.

The Practice of Strategic Assessment
Good strategic assessment begins by knowing the Big Tangible Picture of each principal in terms of their objectives, their approaches, the means and the modes.  ... Understanding the complexity, the connectivity, the consistency and the continuity of a Big Tangible Picture are some of the key points to a good strategic assessment.  

Those who are competitively ambitious, could build this exotic skill through the game of Go (weiqi) where misdirecting and luring are the norms.   He or she might get lucky in understanding the mechanics of these grand concepts after playing a minimum of 10 thousand games.  

So, how did we learned this unique concept?  We spent numerous hours talking to the various "no-name" experts who indirectly revealed their views on strategy to us.   ... Humorously, those who know, don't really say.  ... They have only offered their hints to us through their stories and their actions.  After awhile, we built the skillset of knowing what are the factors behind any strategic situation and how they all connect in certain situations. 

Q: So, do you know how to be strategically two steps ahead of your competition?

#

Profiting in the Competitive Economy: How to Become Strategically Two Moves Ahead of the Competition

Before contemplating on the next strategic move, the successful strategist always asks himself, "How do I know if I am one or two moves ahead or behind my competition?"

A: The answer is in the Sunzi's  Art of War

" ... If I know my team can attack, but do not know the competition cannot be attacked, it is only halfway to victory. If I know the competition can be attacked, but do not realize our team cannot attack, it is only halfway to victory. Knowing that the competition can be attacked, and knowing that our army can attack, but not knowing the terrain is not suitable for combat, is only halfway to victory. Thus one who truly knows the army will never be deluded when he moves, never be impoverished when initiating an action.

Thus it is said if you know them and know yourself, your victory will not be imperiled. If you know Heaven and Earth, your victory can be complete. ... " 

- Paraphrased from Sun Tzu's Art of War 10 (Sawyer's translation)

This is one' of many approaches to staying one to two steps ahead of the competition. 

Compass Principle

By anticipating two steps ahead of your customers and/or your competition and having the half step advantageous move, one is ahead of the strategy game

The Question of the Day:

• Why would any successful strategist make a strategic move that offers the advantage of being an half step ahead?  

The Answer 
"One who excels at competition will await events in the situation without making any movement. When he sees he can be victorious, he will arise; if he sees he cannot be victorious, he will desist. Thus it is said that he does not have any fear, he does not vacillate. Of the many harms that can beset an organization, indecision is the greatest. Of disasters that can befall an organization, none surpasses doubt."

"One who excels in competition will not lose an advantage when he perceives it or be doubtful when he meets the opportunity. One who loses an advantage or lags behind the time for action will, on the contrary, suffer from disaster. Thus the wise follow the time and do not lose an advantage; the skillful are decisive and have no doubts. He strikes like a sudden clap of thunder, which does not give time to cover ears; strike like a flash of lightning, which does not give time to close the eyes. Advance as is suddenly startled; employ your team as if deranged. Those who oppose you will be destroyed; those who come near will perish. Who can defend against such an attack?"

"Now when matters are not discussed and general preserves their secrecy, he is superior. When things are not manifest but he discerns them, he is wise. Thus if superior and wise, no enemies will act against him in the field, nor will any state stand against him."  
- Tai Gong  ( Paraphrased from The Six Secret Teachings, 26)

Ask your local Art of War (AoW) strategy expert if he or she knows the answer.  By looking at a copy of the Seven Strategy Classics and some of the other arcane classics, you might find the right answer. 

What is the Way of Aggressive Competition? 
(from Jiang Tai Gong)
"The offensive disposition of any relevant competitor should change in accord with the movements of their opposition. And changes coming from the confrontation between the two parties. Unorthodox and orthodox tactics are produced from inexhaustible resources of the mind. Thus the greatest affairs are not discussed, and the employment of manpower is not spoken about. Moreover, words which discuss ultimate affairs are not not to be discussed openly. The employment of manpower is not so definitive as to be visible. They go suddenly, they come suddenly. Only when someone who can exercise sole control over the team, without being governed by other men, is a strategic weapon."

"If your plans are heard about, the competition will implement counter strategies. If you are perceived, they will plot against you. If your objectives are known, they will put you in difficulty. If you are fathomed, they will endanger you."

"Thus one who excels in competition has already won before the deployment of manpower. One who excels at eliminating the misfortunes of the people manages them before they appear. Conquering the competition, being victorious by being formless. The superior competitor has won before engaging in contest. Thus one who fights and attains victory in using extreme measures is not a good strategist. One who makes preparation after the contest is started, has been lost is not a superior sage. One whose skill is the same as the masses is not a superior artisan."

"In unique competitive matters, nothing is more important than certain victory. In employing one's manpower, nothing is more important than obscurity and silence. In movement, nothing is more important than the unexpected. In planning, nothing is more important than not being knowable. To be the first to gain victory, initially display some weakness to the enemy and only afterward do battle. Then your effort will be half, but the achievement will be doubled."

"The Sage observes signs from the movements of Heaven and Earth and knows its principles. He observes the movement of the sun and the moon and understand their seasonal activity. He follows the cycles of day and night, taken them as his constant. All things have life and death in accord with the principles of Heaven and Earth. Thus it is said that if one fights before understanding the situation, even if he is more numerous, he will certainly be defeated."

Another Question 
Why is Jiang Tai Gong's Six Secret Teachings important to the hardcore strategists?

The Answer (partial)
" ... Although the Art of War remains the only book known in the West, the Wu-tzu and Six Secret Teachings proved to be highly important sources for military wisdom over the centuries, and the latter continues to be held in higher esteem among contemporary PRC military professionals. .."  -  Ralph Sawyer

If the PRC military professionals are reading it, why are you not reading it?

Comments From The Compass Desk
The strategists who wants to stay ahead of the competition, must know what dots to connect and how to connect them.  

We will continue this topic on Wednesday. 
#

Succeeding in the Info Economy by Assessing a Problem with the Phoenix Checklist

(updated 09/23/13 12:33 pm)

Do you think that you can succeed in our complex economy with a checklist without ever having to grind?

This "Phoenix Checklist" post originated from 

the plannersdilemma.misentropy.com.

The Phoenix Checklist

Was looking through my notes recently and came across the Phoenix Checklist - a set of questions developed by the CIA to enable their agents and operatives to think about a problem thoroughly. It should come in handy for us planners and strategists.

The problem

• Why is it necessary to solve the problem?
• What benefits will you receive by solving the problem?
• What is the unknown?
• What is it you don't yet understand?
• What is the information you have?
• What isn't the problem?
• Is the information sufficient? Or is it insufficient? Or redundant? Or contradictory?
• Should you draw a diagram of the problem? A figure?
• Where are the boundaries of the problem?
• Can you separate the various parts of the problem? Can you write them down? What are the relationships of the parts of the problem? What are the constants of the problem?
• Have you seen this problem before?
• Have you seen this problem in a slightly different form? Do you know a related problem?
• Try to think of a familiar problem having the same or a similar unknown
• Suppose you find a problem related to yours that has already been solved. Can you use it? Can you use its method?
• Can you restate your problem? How many different ways can you restate it? More general? More specific? Can the rules be changed?
• What are the best, worst and most probable cases you can imagine?

The plan

• Can you solve the whole problem? Part of the problem?
• What would you like the resolution to be? Can you picture it?
• How much of the unknown can you determine?
• Can you derive something useful from the information you have?
• Have you used all the information?
• Have you taken into account all essential notions in the problem?
• Can you separate the steps in the problem-solving process? Can you determine the correctness of each step?
• What creative thinking techniques can you use to generate ideas? How many different techniques?
• Can you see the result? How many different kinds of results can you see?
• How many different ways have you tried to solve the problem?
• What have others done?
• Can you intuit the solution? Can you check the result?
• What should be done? How should it be done?
• Where should it be done?
• When should it be done?
• Who should do it?
• What do you need to do at this time?
• Who will be responsible for what?
• Can you use this problem to solve some other problem?
• What is the unique set of qualities that makes this problem what it is and none other?
• What milestones can best mark your progress?
• How will you know when you are successful?

Our Comments on the Checklist  
The conundrum of planning is that it requires some forethought. The complication occurs when one has no foresight of the opportunities or any experience in maximizing those circumstances. Sometimes the predictability of the settings and the experience of the strategist determined the quality of planning.

The list is long and dreary.  Why would anyone in their right mind use that list?  Would you assess your situation with that list?

Lifehacker

The Gist of a Checklist

A basic checklist usually enables the implementers to be prepared to operate in a predictable setting. It also reduces some stress while allowing for a fewer surprises.

The Checklist vs. The Script
What are the differences between a "script" and a list?

• The list sometimes produces the illusion of stability. 
• The list is for people who believed that their settings are always static
• The script is designed for competitive people who proactively operate with a purpose and are methodical by style.
• The scripting process occurs after they have assessed the completeness of the Big Tangible Picture.
• The script enables its implementer to operate in the settings of order and disorder.

I presumed that you know why the Checklist-based scheme does not always work!?  ...  

Why the Script Works 
The script only works when one's strategic operational team has comprehended the configuration of their Big Tangible Picture (BTP) and possessed a grand understanding of the various strategic and tactical principles.  By understanding the strategic efficiency of their Big Picture, the implementers recognized what adds up and when it multiples.
Then they decided whether to play the "risk game of pursuing the multiplier" or "to stay focused" on their objective, be efficient until the project is completed.

Amateurs compile lists of objectives or steps while professionals devise scripts.

The Process of a Script Verses An Assortment of Rules 

Having a large list of strategy principles and operational measures cannot always help the strategic implementer if he/she does not know how to script their operation in a concise way. (Some of the pseudo experts tell their followers to utilize a few of their interpreted principles for the purpose of resolving their problems regardless of their situation. It should idealistically work. The key word is "idealistically.")

Fwiw, the size of one's endeavor is proportional to the importance of having a well-devised script.

The Compass Script

The Compass Script is our macro approach that enables the implementers to organizes their assortment of lists of tactical plays for specific situations. It also enables them to adjust their process and their objectives for certain situations

Our approach is specifically designed for short-term, reward-based projects with long-range implications. These projects are usually aligned to unpredictable strategic situations where the macro variables could change.

We will discuss how a typical Compass Script works in a strategic terrain in a future post.

Question of the Day

Does your team operate from a script?

Organizing Data is the 1st step.

Organization 
(Five staccato syllables to live by)

Organization leads to preparation
Preparation eliminates the unexpected. 
Be ready for everything. . . . 
Overlook nothing. ... 

"A team that is unable to discern good fortune and misfortune in the as-yet-uninformed does not understand preparations." 
- Military Methods, 22 (A minor revision on a concept from Sun Bin's Military Methods)

In any competitive strategy situation, the well-prepared and successful strategists are always focused on securing the last base camp before assaulting the summit.

In summary, preparation is the key. Knowing when and how to prepare for a planning and preparation situation is the first stage of preparation. ... Knowing what to plan for and how to plan is the next stage. ... It starts by assessing the situation and following your script to build the new situational script.

Trivia
Cate Blanchett, a famous Aussie actress, enjoys making lists and crossing items off as she accomplishes them.
///

More Notes on the Seven Military Classics of Ancient China (Sunzi Art of War and More)

Continue from a previous post

Reflections of the Seven Classics Plus One

While the Sunzi essay delineates the philosophical side of strategy, the Sun Bin book delineates the operational groundwork behind a competitive campaign. In other words. one uses Sunzi principles to understand the configuration of a situation while using the principles of Sun Bin, Wuzi and Wei Liaozi to delineate the configuration of the logistics that is behind the situation.

Serious strategic thinkers of all sorts have always preferred to read Jiang Tai Gong (JTG) essay due to its emphasis on understanding a strategic side of campaign from top-down viewpoint. 

The Wuzi classic has become the relevant guide for those who need a solid view on the subject of strategic preparation.

Applying the Crux of the Seven Classics and Sun Bin to a Competitive Scenario
Unlike the "amateurish" Art of War cult who thrived on inspiring the masses through the action of a quote a minute, we have always believed in the active model of staying ahead of the curve through the action of assessing, positioning and influencing. 

Some of them are focused on the goal of getting to their destination first without understanding the configuration of the Big Tangible Picture. 

When competing in our global economy, the timeline is short while the quantity of resources is limited. Concurrently the quantity of the quality competitors has increased by five -fold. Changes are coming so fast. 

To adjust to those mentioned factors, what would a budding strategist's next move?

Do you really understand the configuration of your  Big Tangible Picture?

Utilizing the Foundation Eight Military Classics (Seven Classics + Sun Bin) as a Competitive Foundation
By reading these eight classics, you will be able to comprehend the configuration of your situation by connecting points from these five macro categories (the civil fundamentals, the martial fundamentals, the leadership fundamental, the tactical essentials and the tactical specifics.)

The Dao of Assessing the Situation
Seeing the causation and the effect from one relevant categories of specifics to another, is one of the numerous keys to good strategic assessment.  The challenge is to identify the appropriate factors and connecting those factors for certain situations.

Comments From the Compass Desk
"Instead of conquering through combat or achieving the fabled hundred victories in a hundred clashes, Li’s aim was victory without combat so as to preserve the state rather than debilitate it in warfare. " - Sawyer's translation of Strategies for the Human Realm: Crux of the T'ai-pai Yin-ching

Do you want to grind your way toward their target without ever understanding the Big Tangible Picture (BTP)? Each negative step would increase the amount of labor while decreasing your threshold of resources.  Most who do, regularly faltered in their campaign. Who wants to join them? Do you?

Understanding the Big Tangible Picture is a good skill to have. especially if one is dealing in a situation with minimum time line and limited resources. It also allows you to comprehend the following:

• the connectivity of the significant particulars from a top down perspective; 
• the possible opportunities; and 
• the approach for capitalizing on it 

Would you consider that skill as a strategic advantage? 

Utilizing it as a process model will be discussed in a future post or in our future book project.
#

Understanding the Competition #3

wikimedia.org

Some of our readers will be predicting the victor of today's Super Bowl game. The assortment of factors that they will be employing to conclude their prediction are quite interesting.

Here is an abridged list of those factors:

• the outcome of the last few games;
• the team colors;
• their favorite uniform numbers;
• the number of All- Pros in each team
• the sentimental reasons;
• the performance quality of the quarterbacks;
• the wins and losses record for each team;
• the current streak of wins;
• the recent two minute scoring drives;
• the number of sacks per game; and
• the number of interceptions per game.

A View From The Compass Desk

The amateurs preferred to look at the big data behind the game. Our preference is to focus on the long data regarding to each team and then summarize some of those data in reference to a set of relevant strategic factors. 

Here is our abridged listing of general strategic factors that we are using to predict the possible winner:

• the injury factor;
• the better defense;
• the balance of the offensive game;
• the quality of competition;
• the balance factor;
• the giveaway and takeaway factor;  (our favorite statistic.)
• the terrain factor;
• the ability to score fast;
• the team's speed to adjust;
• the red zone efficiency factor;
• the momentum of winning over superior competition; and 
• the quarterback ability to adjust to an extreme pass rush.

Do your homework! 

Focus your attention on understanding who has the better strategic power in terms of their competitive disposition, their capitalization of opportunities, their effectiveness of timed execution, their display of illusions and reality. Identify the various categories of mismatches (i.e, offense vs. defense, QB vs. MLB and FS, the offensive line vs. the defensive line, etc.) and you might discover who could be the winner before the game begins.

By analyzing the connectivity behind the various specific match-ups in certain situations and the possibilities in reference to the rate of change, the cause and effect and the probable momentum, one can predict the possible outcome.

Analyzing the ranking of key performance metrics of each team is the first step. Identifying the configuration of their strengths and weaknesses and what are their tendencies in certain tactical situations are what counts

Following is an abridged listing of those situations: 

• The Niners could start their offensive game by employing various run plays against the Ravens "questionable" run defense while the Ravens will begin their attack by going long and deep with a two-three receivers alignment against the Niners "Bend Don't Break" Defense.   We expected the Niners to counter their nickel and dime defense.
• The Ravens attempting an up-tempo no huddle approach against the Niners 
• The Niners spreading the Ravens defense and then run short range pass plays and trap plays with the quick-footed LaMichael James and the speedy Vernon Davis against the slower Ray Lewis and non-agile Bernard Pollard.
• The Ravens countering with pass plays with Ray Rice against the Niner's "Bend and Don't Break" defense
• The Niners will successfully running an assortment of new plays (variations from their previous plays).  
• The Ravens running an assortment of disguised blitzes and man to man coverage  against the Niner's offense.
• The Niners running a series of flood plays that deceptively manipulates a targeted player into making a bad decision. 
• The Ravens attempting the "Alley Opps" pass plays with Anquan Bolden  and the deep pass plays with Torrey Smith against the Niner's cornerbacks especially early in the game.
• The Niners defense forcing the Ravens QB to run out of pocket with a four to five man rush, causing his passes to be intercepted.

Subjugating the Competitor's Foundation

In the college and professional sports, almost each everyone know the basic tendencies of their future competitors. 

To prevent the competitors from knowing one's habits, the Niners possesses one of the largest offensive playbook in the NFL. The late Bill Walsh and his many prodigies are known to possess a very large playbook.  The current Niners braintrust have learned from the Virtual Walsh.

Beside running their myriad of jumbo packages and their wham plays, we expected the Niners to isolate the TE on an one on one isolation against the slow linebackers in some pass situations.  the Niners could also run the pitch option and the pass action pass from their pistol formation against the older and slower Ravens defense. 

Targeting the Weak Points

Good competitive strategists usually target some of their "wear and tear" plays on the inspirational leader/chief decision makers.  The psychological reasoning is quite obvious. We expected the Niners to target some "spread (zone) and isolate" a fast  player onto Ray Lewis while the Ravens will go deep and long against the Niners "Bend Don't Break" Defense.

Food for Thought 

• The turf of the dome usually favors the faster team. Based on the assessed data, which team is favored?
• What is the possibility of the Niners defense knocking out the Ravens receivers?
• Based on the last seven games, how effective is the Raven's run defense?
• The team that takes the lead into the fourth quarter, will they effectively be able to "ground and pound" their opponent to a state of "tap or snap"?
• The team that is running behind, will they be able to effectively "spread and shred" their competitor's prevent defense?

Big Tangible Picture

We believed that both coaches have a deep understanding of the tendencies of each other so well that they might play it conservatively in the beginning of the game. 

During the game, many of the armchair quarterbacks will be expecting Coach Jim Harbaugh (the Niners head coach) and Coach Greg Roman  (the Niners offensive coordinator) will be looking for poor defensive responses on certain plays while creating new opportunities through the various schemes of mismatching.  Vic Fangio (the Niners defensive coordinator) will attempt to identifying the offensive play-calling tendencies of Coach Caldwell (the Ravens offensive coordinator)

We expected that Coach John Harbaugh (the Ravens head coach) to strategically change the tempo of their game whenever the Ravens are in trouble.


Based on history, we also expected that Coach Roman  is going to implement his arsenal of unorthodox plays to unnerve the competition during the early stage of the game. 

Side note:  Unorthodox stratagems (trick plays) sometimes do not matter in a near-predictable setting if one's team has the superior (and experienced) manpower who could adjust to any unique changes.  The Niners has a tactical tendency of using unique formations, multi-personnel packages, shifts and motions to deceive their competition while the Ravens has the habit of executing play action passes.  ... We will discuss the rules of implementing unorthodox stratagems and the approach for playing the contrarian card in a future post.


Point, Counterpoint and Counter, Counterpoint
Regardless that the Niners having more offensive weapons and more speed, the Ravens team has the emotional reason and the spiritual leader.  How would each team subvert the emotional foundation of the other?

Here are the clues:
"Concentrate every effort on subduing its heart and mind." -Military Methods 33

"The expert in using the military has three basic strategies which he applies: the best strategy is to attack the enemy's reliance upon acuteness of mind; the second is to attack the enemy's claim that he is waging a just war; and the last is to attack the enemy's battle position (shi).   -Sun Bin's The Art of Warfare , Chapter 34 (Fragments),  

Summary

Due to the settings of the competitive terrain and the comprehension of both teams tendencies by both coaches, some of us are thinking that the total score of this game is going to be one or three points within the over/under number of 47 points.

Offense thrills the masses.  But it is the defense that wins the championship.

The Questions of the Day

So, what strategic and tactical factors have you been using to assess your company and your competition?
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