Thursday, September 4, 2014

Assessing the 2014 NFL Economy

In the game of craps (shooting dice), the uniquely smart gamblers are usually betting on the possibility of the shooters "seven out " before making their point.

Tonight is the first game of the NFL season.   Regardless of the results, it is a game between two playoff contenders, not pretenders.   

The experts and the serious fans are usually good at assessing which teams are going to the playoffs. Whether all of those teams are able to reach the second stage of the NFL season,  is a different story. 

To be different, we are usually focused on the other end of the spectrum,- the bottom five.

The Dao of the Successful Speculators (Strategists)
By looked at a set of strategic factors (the strength of schedule; the quality of competition; the quantity of personnel turnover (the players and the staff); the number of quality rookies in their rosters; the quality of the coaching staff (in terms of being involved with a winning program), the playoff experience of the quarterbacks, the number of players that they had to trade for, etc.), we have not concluded our bottom five NFL teams. 

Once the bottom five are established, the successful speculators usually begin their strategic assessment phase by focusing on the number of points that each of those five teams will lose by or the number of points that they could produce for that game or the number of points that they could surrender for that game  

Assessing the Specifics Behind the Worst Teams
“These are the ways that successful strategists are victorious. They cannot be spoken or transmitted in advance. ... Before the confrontation, they resolve in their conference room that they will be victorious, have determined that the majority of factors are in their favor. Before the confrontation they resolve in their conference room that they will not be victorious, have determined a few factors are in their favor.

If those who find that the majority of factors favor them, will be victorious while those who have found few factors favor them will be defeated, what about someone who finds no factors in their favor?

When observing from this viewpoint, victory and defeat will be apparent.”

- Art of War 1 (Paraphrased from the Sawyer's translation)

As each week progresses forward, the successful speculators begin to see a sequential trend of factors that regularly represented the losing team.  ... 

Following is an abridged listing of those factors:
  • the length of the injury of the starters between the losing team and the contending opponent; 
  • the ratio of forced turnovers between the losing team and the contending opponent;
  • the ratio of touchdowns between the losing team and the contending opponent;
  • the ratio of interceptions between the losing team and the contending opponent; and 
  • the ratio of high yards after completion (yac) per game average between the losing team and the contending opponent.
By going through the comparison of the specific factors, one concludes the present state of a competitor's strategic disposition.  Only the amateurs employ a Occam's type of analysis methodology to finalize their conclusion.

Side note 
Do you know the matrix of connectivity that integrates the factors together?

Updated note
Depending on the prevalence of those factors, a team listed on the bottom could improve when their quality of the competition begins to decline.

The Possible Solution For Each of Those Teams

Those who cannot repair the technical configuration of their team, usually tape it up and hope for the best. 

Comments From The Compass Desk
There are some technical differences between that of a professional football team and a business organization.

The major difference is that the team's fans will keep on investing money in their losing team because they have nothing else to live for.  In the case of a business organization, there is a limitation to how much capital that they could lose, before proceeding toward bankruptcy.

Then there is the Detroit Lions.

Each week, billion of dollars are wagered on professional and college sports. Some people believed that this is the ultimate stage of wagering. 

Ultra class professionals like Edward O. Thorp believed that the narrow niches that lie within the vast stock market is the real casino. ... Understanding the tangible connection between the global politics and the physics of wall street is more challenging than the over-hyped human behaviors behind professional sports. 

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