Sunday, February 2, 2014

Profiting by Assessing the Configuration of the Super Bowl Game (Seahawks vs. Broncos)

updated at 12:12 hrs

This item is for those late speculators who are projecting the possible outcome of the game 

Lets view this game  from the perspective of the coaches.   Before scheming their strategic gameplan, good coaches and their staff have already studied the mindset and the tactical tendencies of the opposing coaches.

They have also studied the possible status of the weather, temperature and the wind direction and its effects every 30 minute period during the game.  

Matching the Different units 
Regardless of what hypes that some news media have pushed to the mindless masses, quarterback do not play against each other.   . . .   The opposing running backs, receivers, kickers and punters also do not play against each other.

Good and smart coaches and intelligent news media analysts always performed scenario modeling by comparing the following matchups: 
  • Quarterback vs. Free safety (He runs the defensive scheme.)
  • Running Backs vs.  Linebackers
  • Offensive Line vs Defensive Line 
  • Special team vs. Special team (Field goal kicker or Punter and Gunners vs Gunners,  kickoff returner and punt returner).
They also create scenarios where their own key players or the opposing players are injured and the second string players must be used.   

In addition, they are focused on the understanding of some of the following points of their opponent: 
  • the belief and the judgement of the chief decision maker and their coordinators;
  • their management of certain tactical decisions (compromises and trade-offs);
  • the planning of the strategy (defining the threats and the opportunities);
  • their judgment of certain strategic factors in certain situations;
  • the possible tactics for attacking certain players  with direct and indirect influences; 
  • the comprehension of certain game scenarios while considering the time factor, the space factor, the order of tactical factors;
  • the opposition and the converging of certain strategic factors;
  • the particular gaps within certain micro tactical scenarios that are hidden in the grand scheme of the game;
  • the identification of the "Wild Card" factor in certain tactical situations (very important to smart play-calling strategists);
  • the individual constraints of the opposing players and the terrain in those situations; 
  • their usual response or reaction in those general situations (rise and falls of certain opportunities that could occur in the grand terrain).
The quality of those points are based on the essence of prominent Chinese strategic classics. Historically, it has enabled certain chief strategists to triangulate the path of least resistance before capitalizing on possible opportunities.

Side note: Choosing the right strategic direction (objective and approach) and selecting the correct plays with the right set of players (means and modes) that would prevent the team from self destructing in a chaotic situation, is the responsibility of the coaching staff.  (updated)  

Our Prediction
By playing at a neutral field, Seattle no longer has the "subversive" advantage of their 12th man. 

If the weather is cold and the playing surface is wet, we expected the running game of Seattle to set up their passing game. Their passing game is quite underrated and quite dangerous. 

There is always a possibility where Seattle slows down the game and just implement a "run-based" drive that absorbs most of the game time.  This approach might prevent Denver's "hurry up, no huddle offense from developing any momentum.

If the weather climbs above the 40 degree mark and the playing surface is dry,  we expected the passing game of Denver to dominate Seattle pass defense.

If Seattle attains the minimum of a 10 point lead in the 2nd half, they will call a nickel or dime defensive alignment and wait for the Denver's quarterback to throw his famous "duck-like" passes while continuing their punishing running game. We expected the Seattle passing game to burn the "average" pass defense of Denver. 

If Denver accumulates  a 10 point lead in the 2nd quarter, they will continue passing the ball with their "quick pace" offense.  In that scenario, the total score of the game will ascend over the projected "over and under" score of 48.5 points

Based on the performance stats, we believed that Seattle has the advantageous edge in the category of special teams.

Side Notes
"In the winter, heavens loves the infantry." - Anonymous
Some news media reporters have always proclaimed that defense wins championship.  ...  Historically, implementing a "sound and solid" defense and a punishing running game in a cold climate scenario, works quite well. . . . Think about it.  ...  Will the weather play a role in the play calling stage of the game?

We will intensively dwell into some of the above topics in our "scripting" book project.

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