Sometimes we focused on the challenge/achievement factor, the complexity factor, the risk factor (rewards/consequences) and the uncertainty factor.
We do not know how Tesla assessed their chances of succeeding.
When assessing, we usually connect a set of tangible numbers to each specifics behind the risk. We usually operate on the Compass Rule that the quantity of quality information determines the state of risk and the height of uncertainty is proportional to the amount of volatility.
2 comments:
There is a lot of money being thrown at the electric car, and hence there is a lot of activity.
There is a LONG way to go in wringing out performance and economy from Internal Combustion Engines (ICE). Look for turbo charged 4 cylinder engines to become the sweet spot for engines.
In addition to automatically clutched manual transmissions, 5 speed automatics are becoming prevalent and 6, 7 and 8 speed transmissions are being introduced.
Until electric vehicles matches the performance and pricing (without subsides )of ICE based vehicles, the market share for EVs will be < 10% for a far into the future as we care to look.
I don't think Tesla's prospects are very good.
The other point I wanted to make - the money and activity: it won't be a waste. While we won't see EVs on the road in great numbers, like the space program, this will serve to fuel (no pun intended) a large number of technological advances.
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