Strategists! Celebrate The World Creativity Day. (It Is Now World Creativity and Innovation Week)

(updated: 04.19.15)

There is no more World Creativity day.  . . .  It is now World Creativity and Innovation week.

There are various different ways  to create and innovate.  It is quite depended on the way the innovators think.   . . .  Changing their experience to perceive the information is  always a challenge especially when they think that their perception is correct.

In complex situations, we preferred the practice of viewing "The Singularity of Big Picture" by comprehending the "periphery of the connectivity" that lies within it.

Q: Does that point makes sense to you?

In some instances, creativity could be inspired by positive and negative events.

The real challenge is to create a sound and solid idea  under the stress of time and resources.


Side Note 
It is always fun to create and innovate an new idea. If it does not connect to a current or future need.  The "pseudo" innovative strategist is wasting the employer's time, resources and efforts.

Identifying the marketplace needs should always be the first step.  Determining whether one has the leadership,  the tactics, the resources, the technology and the strategy to innovate an well-thought out product that meets the marketplace is the real challenge.

Too many companies have wasted an abundance  of resources, creating stuff that does not meet the marketplace.  The presumption is that there is a minimum of 9000+ of failures for every one macro success.  ( I am surmising that the number of failures is higher.)

Without ever knowing the range of current and future needs and wants of the marketplace, they operate on the  notion that "we will build it and they will come."    Unless your company is positioned in the top 1% of the marketplace, the risk of succeeding is quite low.


The Compass Process of Seeing the Big Tangible Picture In a Problem
The following set of five steps  is based on the presumption that the problem is complex and difficult to solve.

1. Defining what is the problem
2. Identifying the general factors that operates within the the system that connects to the problem;
3. Determining the particular strategic state of the system;
4. Understanding the configuration within each factor;
5. Determining the capability within the "connective" configuration of the factors
6. Experimenting with the periphery of each component with the option of performing a succession of calculations.

More to come

Succeeding in the Information Economy Through Scripting (Some Minor Notes From Our Scripting Book Project)

" ... By 1980, the script of Walsh’s opening plays had grown from five plays to twenty-five plays, allowing his team to visualize days before the game how they’d attack their opposition. By the time it matured in San Francisco, Walsh’s offense seemed to be a step or two ahead of its opposition, able to set the tone of the game, take full advantage of the liberalized passing rules and keep the defense off-balance. … ‘American’s Team’ was the most imitated club in football during the seventies. The Cowboys used computerized scouting, and the rest of the league eventually followed suit. The Cowboys used a multiple offense with lots of shifts. The Cowboys based much of their defensive philosophy on computerized tendencies identified from an opponent’s previous games; the rest of league based on computer-generated tendencies identified from an opponent’s previous games.

But Walsh’s twenty-five-plays script subverted all of that. You couldn’t plan for the 49ers because the 49ers didn’t have an identifiable sets of biases on first or second down and they possessed such versatile running backs that they were equally effective running or passing on third down.  .."

Source: More than a Game: The Glorious Present--and the Uncertain Future--of the NFL    By Brian Billick, Michael MacCambridge    Pg 125-126

Other Notes 
During our spare time, our associates are still focused on completing our Scripting Book project.

Following is an abridged listing of topics that the book will encompass:

• the basics of our Assess, Position and Influence model.  
• the conceptual bridge between our Assess, Position and Influence process model and the script;
• the basics of a starter script;
• the basics of a good scripted play;  
• the art and science of "scenario planning and modeling"; and 
• the technical differences between our Assess, Position and Influence (API) model and John Boyd's Observation, Orientation, Decision and Action (OODA) model.

More to come.

Side Notes    
We are currently still deciding on how to transpose the basics of the Sunzi's "Victory Temple" model into this book.

Succeeding in the Field Game with the Moscow Rules or the Sunzi's Victory Temple Model

(updated on 12/27/14 11:18.11)

It has been rumored that the some or most covert field operators have usually function under some aspects of the Moscow rules especially in chaotic times. Whether one could use this set in a complex setting is quite questionable.

The Moscow Rules
Following is an abbreviated list of the probably-fictional Moscow Rules that has circulated around the Internet and in fiction:

• Assume nothing.
• Murphy is right.
• Don't look back; you are never completely alone.
• Everyone is potentially under opposition control.
• Go with the flow, blend in.
• Vary your pattern and stay within your cover.
• Any operation can be aborted. If it feels wrong, it is wrong.
• Maintain a natural pace.
• Lull them into a sense of complacency.
• Build in (the) opportunity, but use it sparingly.
• Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee. (borrowed from Muhammad Ali, aka Cassius Clay.)
• Don't harass the opposition.
• There is no limit to a human being's ability to rationalize the truth.
• Pick the time and place for action.
• Keep your options open.
• Technology will always let you down.
• Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. (taken from Ian Fleming's novel Goldfinger)
• Don't attract attention, even by being too careful

Click here for another version of the rules.  

Following is the International Spy Museum (Washington, D.C.,) version of the Moscow Rules are given as:^[2]

1. Assume nothing.
2. Never go against your gut.
3. Everyone is potentially under opposition control.
4. Don't look back; you are never completely alone.
5. Go with the flow, blend in.
6. Vary your pattern and stay within your cover.
7. Lull them into a sense of complacency.
8. Don't harass the opposition.
9. Pick the time and place for action.
10. Keep your options open.

"Although no one had written them down, they were the precepts we all understood ... By the time they got to Moscow, everyone knew these rules. They were dead simple and full of common sense...".<sup>[1]  
- Tony Mendez</sup>
Source:  wikipedia.org

Regardless of the political change of our global economy, the Moscow Rules are still utilized by some field strategists. ... Whether it is effective in a complex setting, is questionable? 

So, do you think it is important to learn the the Moscow Rules before going on the field?

Comments From The Compass Desk
So, what is wrong with using these rules?  They lacked the tactical specifics on how to utilize it and when to employ it. 

To be strategically effective, the field operators must possessed proper training and practical experience.   Having the strategic instinct is an asset. 

• Do you know when should one "assume nothing?"   ... 
• Do you know when the Murphy Law is applied?   ... 
• Do you know when to go against your instinct and when to go with your instinct?

• Do you know why one should vary their pattern of operation and stay within their cover?
• Do you know when and how to lull them into a sense of complacency?
• Do you know why harassing the opposition is a bad idea? 
• Do you know when is a good time to harass the opposition?
• Do you know when to pick the time and the place for action?
• Do you know when to keep your options open?
• Better yet, do you know when to go with the flow and blend in?

Those who are deep in the strategy game, usually mindfully understand the notion of assessing the configuration of their Big Tangible Picture instead of just using the rules, for the obvious reason of minimizing negative after-effects.  When the factors of risk, uncertainty and volatility are numerous, applying this result-oriented process model becomes relevant.

Operating on simple rules and/or on base instinct could only go so far. Those who succeed with that approach usually succeed in simple strategic settings. But they frequently grinded toward their target in unique complex situations.

#
The Victory Temple Model
“These are the ways that successful strategists are victorious. They cannot be spoken or transmitted in advance. ... Before the confrontation, they resolve in their temple (or conference room) that they will be victorious, have determined that the majority of factors are in their favor. Before the confrontation they resolve in their temple (or conference room) that they will not be victorious, have determined a few factors are in their favor.  

If those who find that the majority of factors favor them, will be victorious while those who have found few factors favor them will be defeated, what about someone who finds no factors in their favor? 

When observing from this viewpoint, victory and defeat will be apparent.”
- Art of War 1 (Paraphrased from the Sawyer's translation)

Click here for more information on the Sunzi's Victory Temple Model.

# One of the best books for understanding this perspective is Dr. Ralph D. Sawyer's Tao of Spycraft.

Ralph Sawyer's first book on the history of Chinese intelligence, The Tao of Spycraft, was written to help correct what he perceived to be a general "lack of interest in China's achievements in the thorny field of intelligence." He adds that a detailed historical treatment is needed for two reasons. First, "no nation has practiced the craft of intelligence or theorized about it more extensively than China." Second, the current government in China employs the ancient precedents and practices that have proved successful for thousands of years.¹⁵ The result was a very detailed account of the techniques employed long before the Christian era by Chinese warring states. These methods were informed by the principles elucidated in Sun Tzu's Art of War and concentrated on the theory of agents, evaluating men, and the importance of terrain. In The Tao of Deception, or the way of the unorthodox,¹⁶ Sawyer extends his approach to espionage, surprise and deception in warfare.

Since Chinese warfare is and has been guided by fundamentally different principles--with the emphasis on the unorthodox--from those applied by European military tacticians, Westerners must learn the oriental approach, and Sawyer provides examples drawn from events throughout the dynastic periods (2853 BCE-1911). Sawyer acknowledges the use of deception in the West, but he contends it is not yet as integrated into military thinking and planning as it is in China. The final chapter discusses deception's applicability to intelligence operations in today's Peoples Republic of China, including their implications for possible future conflict. The book is extensively documented with both Chinese and English sources, many of the latter translations from Chinese.

Neither of Sawyer's volumes is easy reading--they are not introductory texts. And for readers unfamiliar with Chinese history and language, the task is doubly difficult. The names and relationships require considerable concentration. Nevertheless, for those who are concerned about China's historic and contemporary approaches to intelligence and deception operations, it is worth the effort.

Source: intel. central

This book espouses many intelligence gathering concepts, that does not directly connect to the topic of strategic and tactical factors. You just have to discover it and take the time to connect it to your situational setting or you can wait for us to publish some aspects of the Victory Temple algorithm.

There are other great books to this thematic subject. We will discussed this topic in a later post.

Click here for more information on the Sunzi's Victory Temple model.

Side Note: Then there are those who preferred to operate in the field by using the Phoenix List.



Comments From the Compass Desk

So, which strategic approach would you choose?

Knowing the rules and using simplified models in a complex and chaotic setting, could only go so far.   In most cases, grinding one step at a time is psychologically tasking.

In the Chinese strategy game, one focuses on the singularity (the Dao) of the situation before deciding on whether to pursue the obvious move or the exceptional move (non-obvious move). 

None of us are field operators. Nonetheless, we are just good observers who understand how the strategic process of properly assessing the Big Tangible Picture and the levels within it, could offer a slight advantage. 

The Dao Of The Compass 

Assess your grand setting by using the macro principles from the Seven Military Classics  of Ancient China.

Position by deciding the specifics of your strategic view (priority objectives, approach, condition guidelines and escapative guidelines) before developing your script of moves and counter moves 

Influence the setting with your script of moves while quietly assessing and positioning forward.

Suggestion: 
When or if you are residing in a chaotic field, carrying your copy of Sunzi's essay and/or a list of the Moscow rules is not going to help at all.

Wear your hoodie, carry your "Go Bag" and keep on moving while staying mindfully aware of your settings and beyond. Reflectively know what is the Big Tangible Picture before assessing its configuration in terms of threats, opportunities, weaknesses and strengths.

Positioning yourself forward with your script. 

Influencing your setting of the Big Tangible Picture with the macro concepts from the Sunzi classic.

Good luck!

Scripting to a Victory (The Bill Walsh Way)

(updated at 15:15 hrs)

One of the most interesting traditions/practices in sports is the scripting of the game plan.  From the 70's to the early 90's, Coach Bill Walsh innovated and utilized the concept of scripting the first 25 plays in his games. Then employing the results as a springboard to dominate his competition.

This process model has assisted him to win three Super Bowls and two college bowl games. 

His many prodigies have also employed it to win their shares of high stakes games and championships too.


The Basics of Scripting
Scripting is one of those unique practices that is worth learning and using. This practice enables the implementers to maximize their level of strategic efficiency.  It is quite easy to learn,  but moderately difficult to implement for the obvious competitive reasons.

Retrospectively, the completion of a script usually provides the principal script developer/chief decision makers the feeling of self-preparation. It also gave them a level of confidence.

The basic essentials are: a clipboard, some lined paper, some good writing pens (with red ink, blue ink, black ink and green ink), patience, persistence. a well-temperature room with an extreme state of quietude, a coffee pot of warm water, some tea leaves and the skill of assessing, positioning and influencing. 

Having an assortment of white boards, a tablet PC and/or a smart phone is not always essential for script development.  But it never hurts to have them.

The Compass Project 
We are currently working on a book project that focuses on the fundamentals of scripting through our macro process model of Assessing, Positioning and Influencing. 

This book is focused on the fundamentals of shaping and staging the competition through the application of an array of Chinese strategic principles and stratagems by scripting the right meta-tactical plays.  

How to Script One's Gameplan
One needs to know the objective, the approach, their means and the modes of each competitor before deciding on the different types of scripted plays and the order of the scripted plays.  

This approach enables the offensive play caller to decide on the approach for staging the competitor for a knockdown or a knockout while utilizing their opponent's proclivity as one of the key indicators. There are other key indicators that will be discussed in our current book project .

The Problem of Losing One's View of the Big Tangible Picture (BTP)
In the heat of the battle, some people usually forget the specifics behind their objectives and begin to panic while mis-comprehending the circumstances for staying on course or exiting from the gameplan. 

Our solution is the usage of the Compass PACE guidelines. It guides the offensive play callers to know when to stay on course or when to change direction in certain situations.

Building the PACE Guidelines

The development of the PACE guidelines before the scripting of the array of tactical plays, allows the chief strategic decision makers to understand what is their target and what direction they are pursuing. 

What are the PACE Guidelines

• Priority Objectives: This category focuses on the ranking and the specifics of the targets
• Approach: This category focuses on the definition of the strategic timing points for being efficient and flexible
• Condition: This category focuses on the possibility of certain positive case scenarios and the contingency plans 
• Exception: This category focuses on the possibility of certain negative case scenarios and the contingency plans 

This tool also allows the offensive play caller to know when to stay on course or when to change direction.

We will delineates the psychological reasoning for using the PACE guidelines in a future post.

Identifying the math and physics behind anything relevant is sometimes easy. 

Establishing the Adjustment of the Big Tangible Picture
Once the scripted play is called, the offensive play caller knows something about the defense while the defensive play caller might know something about the state of the offensive team.  Based on the previously called play and other factors, the defensive play caller could possibility figure out the offensive play caller's next possible play. 

“Oh, what a tangled web we weave...when first we practice to deceive.”  
- Walter Scott, Marmion

Once the allotment of the scripted plays are called, the game of cat and mouse begins.  The offensive play caller might decide to recirculate some of the previous scripted plays or run a variational change off those plays.

A Mini-Test Case of a Scripted Play 

From a Opening (Starter) Plays Script  

Situation: 1st down and 10 or 2nd down and short, on one's own 30 yard line.

After implementing a quick trap to strong side from the pro set formation (slot left, TE Right) on the second play (regardless of the result in some instances), the offensive play caller might signal the same play with either one  of the following options in the 26th play:

• same run play with a different set of shift and motion by the wide receivers
• a play action pass with a five step drop; and  
• a play action pass with a QB rolling out to the weakside.  

Each option is depended on the previous response and the projected response of the defense.  The strategic state and the strategic efficiency of the competition usually determines the manner of play calling.

Side note: Most playcallers preferred the 15-20 plays script model for the psychological reason that they feel that they would have a good read on the competition's intent and methods.  A few might run a 25 plays script for the obvious reason of exposing the probable deception lead by the defense.  

Those who are deeply skilled in the art and science of strategic shaping and staging, preferred the 25 plays option. 

Comments From the Compass Desk 
Regardless of the array of innovative concepts that Coach Walsh has contributed to the game of football, the script is one of the most useful tools that could be applied to modern day life.

In an unpredictable setting, the tool enables the implementer to strategize in terms of contingencies. 

Click here on some of the basics of scripting 

As mentioned before, the smart strategist could build a script with the following items: a quiet and well-temperatured room; a ream of lined paper; colored pens and a good set of assessment skills. (In some instances, high tech tools are not needed.)

There is a psychological reason for using pen and paper for the initial stage. Those who have seriously studied Yi Quan or Taijiquan, would understand why. 

# You do know how to assess. Do you?  

Whenever you watch a football game, ask yourself if the offensive coordinator is calling a well-scripted game. 

Side Note
We didn't published our book on assessing strategically through the employment of Sunzi's strategic principles because of the quantity of Sunzi's type  of books that were being pushed in the published books marketplace.  Most of these books were quite average or below average regarding to their concept of applications and new ideas. 

Some of them repeated the same obvious points- "if they do this, you do this" type of approach without ever emphasizing on the importance of comprehending the strategic state of the situation. They also outlined the same old idealistic rules of thumb.

For the apparent reasons, the approach of utilizing the rules of thumbs and the simplification of perspective is for amateurs.

These writers have not thoroughly learned the process of "assessing strategically", one of the holy grails behind the Sunzi's essay. Some aspects of this skill can be found in Jiang Tai Gong's Six Secret Teachings. 

Our intent was not to get lost in the abyss of high noise and low signal.
.  
What makes our book unique is our focus on the connectivity between the scripted plays to the categories of adjustment plays and situational plays. 

Whenever the book is published, we hope that you like it.

A Few More Side Notes
Click here for a field level example of assessing, positioning and influencing.

For the Niners Faithful, we recommended this great book by Daniel Brown- 100 Things 49ers fans should know and do before they die  and Bill Walsh, Steve Jamison and Craig Walsh's book -  The Score Takes Care of Itself.  

Our associates at Cook Ding's Kitchen have always reminded the novices and the neophytes that one cannot successfully strategize if he or she is not able to stay focused on their immediate objective. They also reminded them that the reading of the Art of War does not help either.  

# # #

Succeeding Through Mindful Assessing

updated at 10:10

About a week ago, an associate of ours did a presentation on the importance of assessing at a local MBA school.

The presentation covered an assortment of points while discussing the basics of assessing a situation from the perspective of Sunzi's Art of War.


Following is an abridged listing of those points

• The Basics of Assess, Position and Influence 
• Why Strategy Fails
• The Fundamental of Strategy
• Strategizing from the Perspective of Sunzi
• How to Read the Big Tangible Picture in terms of the Global Information Economy
• The Misunderstanding of One's Goal and their Surroundings
• Assessing the Competition
• Recognizing the Influences
• Knowing the Degree of Influences
• Identifying the Positive and Negative Opportunities
• The Outcome of a Good Assessment
• Assessing Strategically
• Lead Strategically
• What is Strategic Power
• Strategic Power = Strategic Effectiveness
• Strategic Effectiveness: First Move Advantage
• The Abstract of the Means
• The Compass Advantage
• The Probable Weaknesses
• The Probable Solutions
• The Compass Trifecta.

Because of the expansiveness and the complexity of this subject, our associate had to briefly cover the numerous particulars within 60 minutes.  

Side Note: One day, he will upload his presentation cache to this blog.

Throughout the presentation, the importance of mindful assessment was emphasized. 

The Significance of Mindful Assessment in Competition
In a situation where a unknown competitor (aka. the Dark Horse) who has minimum amount of resources, competes against well-positioned competitors who has greater resources.  He has a "longshot" in securing a comfortable competing position in that marketplace.

Theoretically, the favored might occasionally take things for granted, decided to stay efficient and wait for the competition to make the first err before capitalizing on it.

In some circumstances, the Dark Horse might only get one opportunity to gain momentum and prevail. 

Regardless of his goal and objectives, he must do more than to produce a product and sell.

The Goal and the Process
He/she has to mindfully decide whether to surpass the competition through the choice of strategic efficiency or innovation by estimating their chances of prevailing through the weighting and the balancing of the various strategic and tactical factors.

To profit from this sole opportunity, he/she has to mindfully assess diligently, position properly and influence with a greater focus on precision.

Whether the class completely learned something from the gist of that point, is a different story.  

Mindful Assessment 
This skill begins by knowing how to center oneself. Once that is achieved, the budding strategist might start to look at things in terms of pacing, obvious/non-obvious, order/disorder and so forth.

This strategic phrase enables one to viewed their terrain and beyond in terms of opportunity and timing.

At some point of time, we will discuss more on this crucial matter. Those who are martial art players, we highly suggested them to visit Cook Ding's Kitchen web site. They specialized in the training of that unique skill.

Afterthoughts 
He wished to thank the school and that class for the opportunity to offer his strategic view on the importance of assessing.

Comments From the Compass Desk
In a society of "displayed predictability", one must understand the significance of learning the approach to assess change and having the foundation to capitalize on it. 

Learning how to take time to assess "The Big Tangible Picture" and position oneself in an equal advantage situation is always the difficult challenge for most people.

Those who could mindfully assess their terrain and beyond while staying focused on their current objective, has a strategic advantage of staying ahead of the curve.

# # # 

Succeeding in the Info Economy by Understanding the Fifth Chapter of Sunzi's Art of War (Strategic Power)

For the last five days, we have touched on the integrated process of assessing strategically, waging conflict, planning the campaign and defining the competitive disposition. 

Chapter Five is the favorite chapter of the pseudo warriors who wanted the field action without ever getting injured. 

Implementing strategic positions that project force, usually have infinite variations.  Influencing the competitor to maneuver into a negative state of disposition while generating momentum to one's own advantage is the means that leads to a triumph.

The Emphasis of Directness and Indirectness (Orthodox/Unorthodox)
"There are no more than five cardinal notes, yet in combination, they produce more sounds than could possibly be heard; there are no more long than five cardinal colors, yet in combination, they produce more shades and hues than could possibility be seen; there are no more than five cardinal tastes, yet in   combination, they produce more flavors than could possibly be tasted.  ..."  
- Ames's translation

The Emphasis of Directing Through Illusion 
"The ideal strategy during conflict is to move opponents here and there, until they are perfectly positioned to their own disadvantage.  This strategy, which he called Directing, is the art of compelling the opponent to react to whatever information is presented.  It is a skill that is used by leaders who are gifted with creative, insightful minds  ... tactics could be used, in endless variations, to orchestrate surprise, skillful leaders creates the appearance of confusion, fear or vulnerability, caused the opponent to perceive a false weakness. The opponent is helpfulessly drawn toward this illusion of advantage.  ... Through the promise of gain, an opponent is moved about while the team lies in wait. "  - Wing's translation

One "Idealistic" Strategic Configuration of Power
One who employs strategic power (shih) commands men in battle as he were rolling logs and stones. The nature of wood and stone is to be quiet when stable but to move when on precipitous ground. If they are square they stop, if round they tend to move. Thus the strategic power (shih) of one who excels at employing men in warfare is comparable to rolling round boulders down a thousand-fathom mountain. Such is the strategic configuration of power (shih). - Sawyer's translation  
 

Analysis

Knowing what type of strategic power to utilize is moderately easy. Assessing the opportunity, pinpointing the timing and preparing the strategic resource for the situation is the real challenge.

Profiting by Learning: The After Game Analysis of Super Bowl #48

updated at  02.03.2014  (3:33 hr)

Playing the Super Bowl on the same weekend as the celebration of the Chinese New Year of the Horse does not mean that the Broncos team was going to win the Super Bowl.   ... An offense that depends on an one dimensional approach and tactical gimmicks, usually have trouble against a "complete" defense that is injury-free. 

Defeating the New England Patriots by a grand score does not mean that Broncos was going to win automatically. Especially, when the Patriots defense had a massive amount of injuries and no personnel depth. It also does not mean that the Broncos defeated a quality opponent.   In some instances, this 19 game marathon is about last man standing. Regardless of the quality of the competition, the competitor must focus on getting to the last game.

One could defeat a roster of injury-prone opponents by a high number of points and be declared a stronger competitor while another unknown team with an inexperienced QB defeated a roster of non-injury-prone opponents by an average of 10-14 points and be declared an underdog.   . . .  Most amateurs preferred to focused on the obvious rules of thumb. They take things for granted.  ... Then, there is the smaller group of professionals who carefully viewed the stats, read between the lines, and always looking for that hidden strategic inflection point (sip) that could lead to an advantageous gain.   . . . (This practice is quite deep. We will touch on it in our Scripting Book project one day.)  Sometimes, the quality behind certain stats could be questionable at best.   . . .  One should always test the quality of information before accepting it.  ...  For those who compete in the information economy, think carefully about that last point.

While Seattle defense disrupted the protection of the Denver quarterback by using an assortment of three to four rushers, they also prevented the offense from gaining any relevant offensive momentum.  

The Bronco choked from the first play of the game to the end.  In spite of what some of the news media experts opinions,  the quarterback does not win any of the games.  The entire team wins the games.  ...  Seattle played and scored as a team.   It is expected that the offense contributed to the majority of the total score.  Their defense and their special team also scored a touchdown.

After gaining the 29-0 lead, the Seattle teams continued with the tactic of pounding the ball toward the line of the scrimmage while the defense played a "prevent" formation.  Its motive was to control the clock and soften the Broncos defensive line.   Psychologically, the true rationale of "the continuously run" tactic was to break the Broncos will to win.   ...

In summary, Seattle was victorious with the score of 43-8. 

Side Note 
Based on our previous assessment,  we knew that Seattle had a superior special team. 

Historical Notes
In 1978, the Broncos lost to the Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowl XII .  They also lost to  the San Francisco Forty Niners (1990) in Super Bowl XXIV.  Interestingly, both years were also the Year of Horse.  In the 1978 defeat and this year's defeat, the MVP were defensive players.

Many years later, history repeats itself again in its own unique way.   

The Orange Crush were flushed into mush by the Seattle's team.  . . .   

Lesson
Remember that the game  is won on the field not by predictions by the numerous illogical and overpaid sport experts and clueless celebrities.  They are the victims of the Occam Effect.  ...  Offense always thrill the non-experts and the ADD-based speculators but it is usually "the defense that  usually win the championships. "  . . .  You could take that principle to the bank.  . . . 

In the history of Super Bowl games,  defense have won about 60% of the games.  The number of games that favored the defense, would have increased if it were not for the increasing number of the "favoring the offense" rules . 

As in baseball, football, basketball and hockey,  defense rules in most strategic situations.  ... If the opponent cannot score, winning becomes a zero possibility.

Side Notes (updated) 
"If I know our troops can attack, but do not know the enemy cannot be attacked, it is only halfway to victory. If I know the enemy can be attacked, but do not realise our troops cannot attack, it is only halfway to victory. Knowing that the enemy can be attacked, and knowing that our army can attack, but not knowing the terrain is not suitable for combat, is only halfway to victory. Thus one who truly knows the army will never be deluded when he moves, never be impoverished when initiating an action.

Thus it is said if you know them and know yourself, your victory will not be imperiled. If you know Heaven and Earth, your victory can be complete." - Art of War 10

Our assessment tells me that the Seattle defense had the advantageous move of being a minimum of one step ahead of the Broncos offense by quietly knowing one or more of the following three tactical factors:

• what was the play call (run or pass); 
• when was the ball going to be snapped; and 
• where the quarterback was going to pass the ball.   

Since the QB threw ducks, it became easy for the pass defenders to anticipate his objective. In this terrain,  securing the two second advantage is the name of the game.  ... I do not expect the Denver's QB to ever meet the standard of this season's feat again. The smart opposing scouts now know his weaknesses and their employers will be exploiting it next season.  

Quarterbacks who preferred to improvise by reading and responding, regularly dislikes to following the scripting process model, will be telegraphing his play calling habits at some point.  

You could learn more about this "reading the competition" skill by reading this translation of Li Quan's essay of Tai Pai Yin Jing   (Dr. Sawyer's translation of a Chinese strategic classic is excellent.) or you could talk to us.

The Seahawks defense assessed the actions of the Broncos QB, positioned themselves ahead of the play and influenced them to fail. 


Second Thoughts
If the Super Bowl was played today (Monday), Denver would have been forced to run the ball and Manning's duck passes would been intercepted numerous times.  In most instances, the Denver's offense would have not been score one touchdown.  ... Ducks rarely fly well in cold and windy weather. 

From our own experience, we learned that one could not deploy the same set of strategems repeatedly in our information economy, especially against very smart strategists and very clever and aggressive field expediters.   The Broncos coaching staff should have known that. They were focusing too much of their time and their attentiveness on their predictable strengths and did not creating variational changes in their offensive play calling and proper contingency plans. Their inability to read their competition and the state of their playing  terrain became the beginning of their downfall.

It is always amusing to speculate on what happens to certain chief decision makers who underestimate the severity of the situation and does not understand the risk consequences of bad strategic planning.

In extreme competition, some people believed too much on their strengths without ever considering their subtle weaknesses.  This is another reason why some entities just lose greatly.  . . .  Wait until next season.   . . .  Time for some NHL Hockey and MLB.

If you think that you could really assess strategically, try your skill in the "ever-shifting" stock market. =))

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Our Favorite Strategy and Tactics Posts!

(updated at 1800 hrs) 

The strategists who are seeking for another perspective in their endeavor. Please read this post.

Following is an abridged listing of our favorite posts

Understanding the Basics of Strategy

• How to Unify the Team (from the San Francisco 49ers view)
• How to Succeeding Through the Practice of Scripting a Game (from the San Francisco 49ers view)
• How to Shape the Competition.
• Red Auerbach's 57 Strategies
• How to be the Two Moves Ahead of the competition (1)
• How to be the two moves Ahead of the Competition (2) 
• Assessing the Unfocused Strategist
• How to Strategize like Sun Bin.
• A Historical Note on Jiang Tai Gong.
• A Historical Note on Zhuge Liang.
• Zhuge Liang's The Way of General. 
• Understanding the Dao from a pragmatic view.

How to Center and Focus
One could not strategize if he/she does not possess the skill of "centering and focusing"

• Learning the basics of centering
• Achieving the State of Centerness.
• Centering by practicing Yiquan, Taijiquan and Baguazhang.

Miscellaneous Reading 

• Failure to Plan is Planning to Fail
• Preparation Precedes Performance
• The Sign of the Times: The Robots Trend is Here
• The Vending Machines Trend  
• Compass Trend (8): The Automated Trend Continues
• Compass Trend (10): Employing the Health-Perfect Employees...
• Our Compass Toolbox
• Understanding the Competition  
• Shock and Awe

Happy New Year.  ...