World Series Analysis (Part 3)

Classic Baseball Adages 

• Good pitching and defense usually beats good hitting.
• Offense thrills. But defense wins championships

The SF Giants won Game #3 and Game #4 through solid pitching, good defense and small ball offense.

The Plight of the Pseudo Experts
Following is an abridged listing of the many pseudo experts who picked the Tigers to win:

• SI; 
• CBS; 
• IBT;
• other sport experts views; and 
• an ex-jock view of the series.  .

Click here and here for local non-expert's views. The majority of the Yahoo experts  picked the SF Giants to win. 

Click here for a summarization from Huffington Post. 

Click here on how one expert assessed the two teams.  Can you see what is wrong with this assessment?

Next to Final Analysis
Some of their analysis were pathetic and illogical.  They have a habit of telling us the obvious.  Good analysis are usually based on the possible "connective" factors. 

So do you know how to assess a competitive situation?  ... 

The Possible Causes for the SF Giants Victory

Luck is the residue of design. - Branch  Rickey

Preparation creates opportunity.  The prepared usually capitalizing on the opportunity.  They are always one to two steps ahead of their competition.

Click here, here, here, here and here for the different views of the SF Giants success.


The After-Effects from the World Series
The real winner was Stubhub.  The losers were the TV channel that produced the World Series and the Tiger Fans.

Final Comments from the Compass Desk
In our message-driven society, the amateur experts always have a message. But there are no risk consequences for their err(s). They make predictions just like some politicians who make big promises.  

Our point is that you should decide on your political candidates carefully. It is not a beauty contest. Vote on Tuesday.  Choose them on the criteria of the Bigger Picture.  Good luck.

World Series Analysis (Part 2: The Next Three Games)

Miscellaneous Trivia
One extra week of rest can un-synchronize a player.  An "out of sync" catalyst usually causes the obvious outcome.

The San Francisco Giants won the second game with small ball.  By grinding it out inning by inning. the Black and Orange offense prevailed at the latter stage of the game through their mastery of the fundamentals and some luck.

For the next three games, they are playing the Tigers in Detroit.

Analysis
History and odds are against the Tigers.   By focusing on one game at a time and playing on their strengths,  they have an even chance to win.  Past history and probability do not win games where time is not a factor.

• The Tigers home record and the Giants away record are mildly relevant to this game.  In a American League park, we expected the Tigers to have the hitting advantage with their DH.  (It is a moderately large ballpark.) They know the quirks within their home park and usually score through the long ball.  The Tigers have good base runners.
• We also expected the game temperature to be cold.  It should not be a factor against the SF Giants.  They are quite used to the cool climate from playing at the ATT park.  Cold weather can be a wild card for those who are not prepared.
• The direction and the velocity of the wind will affect the possibility of the long ball.  (It  could be the wild card that favors the Tigers.)
• To disrupt the spirit of the Tigers and their fans, the SF Giants must score first and fast.  Once the lead is obtained, the Giants bullpen takes over.  In most cases, the majority of the Tigers fans will be psychologically pressured to surrender to the inevitable.  Only, the extreme fanatics will cheer on their team, many hours after the game is over. 
• If the last innings of the game is tight, one could expect that Bochy implements the "bullpen by committee" option.  The Tigers have a weak bullpen.  The SF Giants will have the advantage. (In this situation,  the manager's strategic view of playing the "matchup" game becomes more relevant.) 
• Click here for an expert view on tonight's game . 
• We expected the Tigers to win at least one of the three home games.  If not, Detroit will be freezing until next spring.
• Suggestion: Wear your orange t-shirt

The Secret of the Successful Strategist

The SF Giants Manager Bruce Bochy finds his opportunity by focusing his time on the proclivity of the opposing players. He creates a situation where the mismatch favors the strengths of his players while exposing the weaknesses of the competition. This is what strategic efficiency is about  ... Sometimes, a little luck  never hurts.

The Final Points

• Hitting the long ball always thrills the amateur fans.  But it does not always guarantee a winning game.  
• A balance of "Small Ball" offense (a momentum of singles, extra-base hits and base stealing) pitching and defense usually plays a factor regardless of the weather.  It never goes out of style. 
• If the scoring of the game goes high, the observers should expect the SF Giants to use their bullpen.
• Displayed tactical mismatches on the computer monitor do not win games. Proper execution on the game field is what count.  Games are always won on the field. 
• Those who are strategically prepared, will be the victor 

Suggestion
If you are interested in learning about the art of profiling a competitor's tendencies, check out Dr. Sawyer's latest book.   It is an interesting read.

World Series Analysis (For the First Two Games)

Without going into the specifics of various game performance statistics, this is our fundamental analysis of the World Series

The Advantages for the San Francisco Giants (SFG) 

• Momentum-based Offense (Hit and Run, Run and Hit, surprising base stealing, etc.) .
• Bullpen Pitching 
• Superior Defense.
• Game Tactics.

The Advantages for the Detroit Tigers

• Home runs prowess
• Superior Starting Pitchers

An Abridged Listing of Situational Factors 

• The SFG's home field was designed for pitching and defense. Their outfielders have the experience of the "triple" alley in the central field and playing with the wind, especially in the right field,
• To prevail in a wind-based grass terrain, well-timed hitting and speed prevails.  A momentum of singles and extra-base hits causes the big, slow and fat players to move.
• If there is no rain or strong wind, the Tigers home run power could become a grand factor.
• If the Detroit Tigers cannot play sound and solid defense within this terrain, one could only expect the SF Giants to gain the offensive advantage with their momentum-driven offense (small ball). 
• Having this unique home turf advantage for the first two games could be a prevailing factor for the SF Giants.   
• If the weather is not a factor, the Tigers do score first and fast and their starters play the minimum of seven innings,  the odds of winning increases.
• Whether the weather is relevant, the score of the game is close and the SF Giants is able to influence the pitchers to throw as many pitches as possible.  The Tigers will be forced to use their weak bullpen by the fifth and sixth innings.  The Giants could triumph.
• In a National League park, the SF Giants pitchers are used to hitting the ball.
• Due to the depth of their bullpen, the extra-innings game situation factor goes to the San Francisco Giants.
• The team who gets the two to three runs lead, could be the victor. 

• Click here for one's view on how to attack the Tigers starting pitcher for game 1.

Next to The Final Thoughts
Baseball is a semi-predictable game where the time span is not a factor and near-transparency is in the statistics. Analyzing the data in terms of situational performance metrics is the key.  

In sports, offense thrills.  But defense wins championships. 

With an abundance of data, the smart strategist capitalizes on the tactical tendencies of each opposing player, with a quiet sense of focused urgency.  He Influences them to be tactically uncomfortable through the various means. This is the tactical approach to implementing one's strategic power onto one's competition.

... Strategies do not win games. Choosing the right tactics and properly executing them, are some of the keys to winning. 


... While the amateurs are usually focused on the big play offense, the professionals emphasized on the importance of sound and solid defense while creating offensive momentum through the execution of well-timed hits. 

It begins by assessing the Big Tangible Picture.  ... You do know how to assess strategically. Do you?  .. Those who are psychic, should be able to see three to five days ahead.  We do not think anyone of us are psychic. 

Strategic Assessment
Knowing the myriad of possible situations do matter.  It offers the successful strategist the vantage of thinking  ahead. Through the subtle execution of situational mismatches, one gains the advantage of subjugating the means and the modes of a competitor.  

The Dao of Strategic Efficiency.
Through our understanding of the Seven Strategic Classics and other exclusive essays, we  practiced the process of securing the tangible truth. By comparing the advantageous and the disadvantageous points of the conflicting sides, we usually pinpoint a "profiting" situation that takes the least amount of risk and/or the minimum effort.  This is the projected outcome from the implementation of strategic efficiency.

Final Score  (updated at 8:48 pm. Re-updated at 11:54 pm.)
Game 1: SF Giants 8  Detroit Tigers 3
Click here for the box score. Click here for a NYT's view of the game.
After the 3rd inning, the Tigers starting pitcher has already thrown 70+ pitches. After four innings, he threw a total of 98 pitches and surrendered five runs. The bullpen gave up another three runs. 

An irrelevant stat: The team that wins the 1st game, wins the World Series 62% of the time.

Side note: Sport is just an extension of life where the fantasy of each and every fan's differs.