Biological-Driven Psychology is Strategy

Click here on an interesting item on how duckings are able to have abstract thoughts and make "adjustable-based decisions.

Psychology is Strategy: Understanding the Mind of Bill Gross, The Bond King

(updated at 1:11 pm)

Bond king' Bill Gross donates old Bloomberg keyboard, Beanie Babies to Smithsonian
Once the centerpiece of his legendary bond managing days, Bill Gross' old Bloomberg terminal keyboard is getting a new home at the Smithsonian Institution.

The co-founder of Pacific Investment Management Co. also donated several other items from his trading desk -- a Monroe Trader bond calculator, two Beanie Babies (one red bull and one black bear) and a pair of fuzzy dice always set to lucky number 11.

"I'll want to adjust the dice to 11 if they're not to 11," he said. "And make sure the bull and the bear are appropriately placed so that if I'm bearish on the market, the bear is a little more forward than the bull."

The Question of The Day 

So, do you know why Bill Gross possessed a pair of fuzzy dice that was always set to the number 11?

The Conceptual Meaning of The Number "11"
In the game of craps (shooting dices), there are 36 possible end results from throwing two "cube-shaped" dices.  With those 36, there are only two combinations of the number 11 (6 and 5, 5 and 6) that enable the bettor to win on the first throw (the pass line bet).  It also offers the payoff of 16 to 1 odds.   

Mr. Gross realizes that the achievement of the high end rewards are usually risky, due to the uncertain probability of a certain situation occurring. 

While hitting the idealistic "11" on the first attempt is difficult and uncertain, the achievement is possible with the right research and strategic execution.   Regardless of the projected rewards in the competitive bond business, he must identify the high end rewards through long sessions of intensive research before determining whether it is possible to achieve that specific reward. 

The Compass Principle
It is better to be strategically good than it is to be strategically depended on chance.


Side Notes

• In spite of the throwing motion of the dice, one should know how the weight and the shape of the dice could affect the roll. 

• 11 is a prime number, but not a lucky prime number. 

• The "winning lucky numbers" concept rarely prevails in the business of personal investments and "serious" table gaming.   

#  Portions From the Original Article

Bill Gross donated his old Bloomberg terminal keyboard to the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of American History. 
By SAMANTHA MASUNAGA

The item is part of the American Enterprise exhibit, opening July 1, which also boasts Eli Whitney's cotton gin.  (National Museum of American History, American Enterprise exhibition)

Bond king' Bill Gross donates old Bloomberg keyboard, Beanie Babies to Smithsonian
Once the centerpiece of his legendary bond managing days, Bill Gross' old Bloomberg terminal keyboard is getting a new home at the Smithsonian Institution.

The co-founder of Pacific Investment Management Co. also donated several other items from his trading desk -- a Monroe Trader bond calculator, two Beanie Babies (one red bull and one black bear) and a pair of fuzzy dice always set to lucky number 11.

"I think it'll be pretty cool," Gross said of his items' inclusion in the exhibition at the Smithsonian's National Museum of American History. "It'll be like visiting your old home where you grew up."

... When considering items for this section, he said the staff decided that they needed a Bloomberg terminal as the "icon of the modern financial world."

"I'll want to adjust the dice to 11 if they're not to 11," he said. "And make sure the bull and the bear are appropriately placed so that if I'm bearish on the market, the bear is a little more forward than the bull."

The keyboard also has a signature Gross touch. At the top is a piece of white sticker tape with his old password on it.   ...

After years of refusing to abandon his 25-year-old keyboard, the "bond king" said he now has a new one in his new role as portfolio manager at Janus Capital Group.

For more business news, follow @smasunaga.

Click here for more information on this news item regarding Bill Gross

Source: www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-bill-gross-keyboard-20150602-story.html

Lesson From Sunzi's: Gaining Insights From Intelligence, Not From Psychics

“The successful strategists usually will use the highest intelligence of his network with the intent achieving great success, and thereby they achieve great results.” -  Sunzi

---
To prevail in complex strategic situations, gaining insights from correct intelligence sources is the first step.


#
China’s ex-security czar faces life in prison because of his qigong teacher

China’s former security czar, who has now been sentenced to life in prison, chose the wrong soothsayer. Zhou Yongkang, the most powerful Chinese official to have been caught in the communist party’s ongoing anti-corruption campaign, depended on a qigong mystic better known as the “Xinjiang sage” for his ability to heal incurable ailments and predict the future.

What the sage, Cao Yongzheng, did not foresee was Zhou’s dramatic downfall. Zhou went from being one of the most powerful men in China to a frail silver-haired man, who admitted to taking $21 million in bribes and causing $240 million worth of “economic damage” to the state. Cao even provided testimony against Zhou over the ex-official’s most serious charge, leaking state secrets. According to the official Xinhua new agency, Zhou leaked five “extremely confidential” and one “confidential” document to Cao.

Zhou is not the first Chinese official to fall under his sway. Another official charged with corruption, Li Chuncheng, the former party boss of Sichuan province, sought guidance from Cao and has been accused of abusing
his power to engage in “feudalistic and superstitious acts.” Zhou’s son, Zhou Bin, is also reported to have been close with Cao.

Cao, from China’s Western Xinjiang province, reportedly got his start by predicting China would win the bid to host the 2008 Olympics, and has cultivated a network of contacts that stretches into the upper reaches of 
China’s political elite.

China’s elites seem to have a soft spot for qigong masters—the martial art based on channeling one’s qi, or energy, was all the rage in the country in the 1980s and 1990s. Another mystic, Wang Lin—with ties to the sisters of former leaders Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, Alibaba founder Jack Ma, actor Jet Li, and many others—came under scrutiny in 2013 after Chinese media began delving into his life and accused him of amassing wealth by connecting the powerful and elite contacts, not healing or fortune telling.

Zhou is best known for his weiwen, “stability maintenance” policies that expanded China’s domestic security apparatus, surveillance, and extrajudicial detention centers known as “black jails.” He’s also known for dealing harshly with Tibetans, Uighurs and dissidents. One former official called Zhou’s years in power, the “ten darkest years for law and order in China’s history” (link in Chinese).

Not much has changed. The current administration is cracking down on dissidents and China’s budding civil society as severely as ever. Zhou’s conviction took place in a secret trial held in Tianjin, disappointing those who believed an open one would help improve the transparency of    China’s legal system. Comments on social media about the case have also been censored.

One censored blogger wrote (link in Chinese), “Even though Zhou Yongkanghas fallen, Zhou Yong Kang’s weiwen system cannot fall. This is the heart of the matter.”

• http://qz.com/426601/chinas-ex-security-czar-faces-life-in-prison-because-of-his-qigong-teacher/

...
Reminder: Most qigong instructors are not psychics.  Most psychics are not qigong instructors.  Qi gong is not a martial art.

The Compass View: Applying the Metaphor of Chinese Chess to Modern Competition

(updated on 07.03.15)

Chinese Chess (xiang qi) has always been a tactical-based board game that reflects the state of modern competition in reference to the boundaries, the limited resources and the proclivity of establishing the remote attacking protocol.  While the gist of western chess is symbolically closer to the politics of our western society, the gist of Xiang qi is about field level combat.

The Field Game

Following is an abridged listing of strategic and tactical principles (from Chinese Chess game) that could be applied to the real world:

• the general usually operates efficiently when positioning behind the solders and staying within the city;  (Leading from the front line only works in the movies.)
• the cannon always operates efficiently when positioning behind other pieces;
• the chariot, the horse and the cannon usually operate effectively as a team;
• the unification of the solders after they have crossed the river;
• the sacrificing of one's position and other minor pieces  is the operating norm for the purpose of surprising and subverting the opposing desktop general;  
• while the infantry are used for distraction or last priority attack, the real siege originated from the combination of the chariot, the horse and the cannon; and
• the targeting of the "real general" who sits or stands behind the rear rank is the alpha objective;  

Clue: Think of the symbolic meaning behind each piece. Then, connect it to the above listings of principles before attaching it to your strategic situation- identify its inner configuration before assessing the connectivity of the situation.  

Positioning yourself by deciding whether a combinational tactic or a "wait and intercept" tactic is needed.

 

The Chinese Chess Game Board

• Utilizing the river (the territorical boundary)  to one's strategic advantage 

We will  explain the specifics of the above principles and outline other principles while elaborating on the basics of Chinese Chess in a future post.

More to come.

The Will to Prepare To Win is Greater than The Will to Win

"The Will to Prepare To Win is Greater 
than The Will to Win.  . . ."
- Bobby Knight 

(updated at 15:15 hr.)

There are many variations of the mentioned quote. The gist is based on the significance of proper preparation in any strategic situation.  

The initial concept of this quote is similar to the "preparation precedes performance."  But the latter does not touch on the psychology of being prepared and how to stay focused on the current objective.  

From our professional experience, the understanding of "the psychology of preparation" usually enables the budding strategist to accelerate their performance of preparation.

Comprehending the reasoning behind the preparation and how to adjust to the situation is the essence of why certain strategists succeeds. 

While knowing the approach to seeing the configuration of one's Big Tangible Picture is the key to a smooth preparation session, defining the specific factors behind the configuration is the real challenge.

Whether the current objective is to prepare oneself for writing software programs or brewing tea or playing Bagua zhang,, he/she is always aware of the next current situation, based on the configuration of their terrain (the priorities, the time of day, the resources, etc.). 

Reading the situation means understanding the importance of assessing, positioning and influencing before ever pursuing an objective.

The low attention people usually have the need for immediate gratification, are usually in trouble in complex situations that require multiple steps. Any encounter of complex obstacles usually frustrate them first and then deter them from continuing.   They are living in the moment.

To strategize well, focus on increasing one's attention span while decreasing the need of immediate gratification 

Psychology is Strategy
A quote could only motivate someone for a limited period of time. But the constancy and the consistency of positive preparation increases one's will to win .

Those who rely on their "emotional will", have occasionally prevail in situations that is driven by short time intervals. But they will burn out in a long time-driven situation.

Methodical By Style: Be Deliberate

Source

(It is presumed that the planning strategist has properly collected the information.)

The first step of planning and preparation begins by methodically outlining each specific objective with a timeline and the approach. Connecting them in a sequential order by the prioritization of objectives while being mindful of the timeline, the allocation of the resources, the economics, the risks, etc. Building the script is the name of the game

The next step is the performance of each step efficiently until one could see the following step while doing the current step. Follow the script. Do it deliberately and slowly until one gets into the flow and ebb of the script.

Side note:  The assessment of one's own tangible situation (including the risk factor and the rewards factor) usually determine the amount of preparation 

This leads to one of our favorite Compass Strategic Principles.  . . .

"The amount of quality time and effort spent in assessing and positioning (through planning and preparation) is inversely proportional to the amount of time  that it takes to influence the circumstance of the objective while implementing through the plan.  .."

We will touch on that specific principle in a future post.

Succeeding in the Information Economy By Identifying the Profile (of the Intention)

Source: Bloomberg
updated at 0:16

Click here on how the U.S. intelligence agencies are attempting to "understand" the predominant paradigm of Putin's. 

The Objective
"Concentrate every effort on subduing its heart and mind." 
- Sun Bin C33  [Military Methods]

The Tactic 
"The expert in using the military has three basic strategies which he applies: 

• the best strategy is to attack the enemy's reliance upon acuteness of mind; 
• the second is to attack the enemy's claim that he is waging a just war; and 
• the last is to attack the enemy's battle position (shi). 

  - Sun Bin , Chapter 34 (Fragments),   [ Sun Bin's The Art of Warfare ] 

For What it is Worth 

Their target is an above average chess player (he knows how to get past the first 20 moves without any self destruction in his opening moves and his middle game.), a former military intelligence operator, and a former leader of the country's intelligence agency.  Do you think that he was strategically prepared for some sort of psychological manipulation from his competitor? 

What do you think is the immediate counter to that approach? ... Click here for a hint.  

By seeing the configuration of the given Big Tangible Picture, the successful strategists know the gist of the approach and the executable of the means.

Andrew Marshall: The Yoda of The U.S. Defense Department

Source

(updated at 21:18)

In the business of maintaining the national security, the responsibility of strategic forecasting lies on the shoulder of the few.  Andrew Marshall is one of them. He leads the Office of Net Assessment since its inception in 1973.

The budding strategists should read up on him.  He is one of the best in assessing what trend is relevant in the business of national security.   

Biography
In an interview in 2012 the main author of four of the Chinese defence white papers General Chen Zhou stated that Marshall was one of the most important and influential figures in changing Chinese defence thinking in the 1990s and 2000s.


Foreign Policy named Marshall one of its 2012 Top 100 Global Thinkers, "for thinking way, way outside the Pentagon box"   -  Wikipedia

Click here, here, here, here and here for more information on him.


From a Wired 2003, interview 

Andrew Marshall

Q: Does new technology ultimately make us more or less vulnerable?
A: A friend of mine, Yale economist Martin Shubik, says an important way to think about the world is to draw a curve of the number of people 10 determined men can kill before they are put down themselves, and how that has varied over time. His claim is that it wasn't very many for a long time, and now it's going up. In that sense, it's not just the US. All the world is getting less safe.

Comments From the Compass Desk
So how does one focuses on the future without being too mindfully aware of the present?   The initial step begins by possessing the conscious feeling of no constraints and no worry of danger before identifying the on-coming trends. Estimating the range, the complexity of this any on-coming trend before connecting its inner attributes to the configuration of the Big Tangible Picture, is the macro step that most people have trouble performing. 

Assessing the tangibility of a trend by testing the extensiveness of its after-effect in a strategic simulation setting. To most people, it is quite tricky but not impossible.

Side Note
Those who seriously studied Yiquan, would understand that sole point from the practice of centering oneself. 

#

Victory Wears a Red Shirt: The Myth Behind Tiger Woods's Red Shirt

Source: Washington Post

(updated at 22:38 hr) 

Whether it is competition or everyday,  Many of us are believers or followers of certain superstitions and practices. Some carry rabbit feet, others wear baseball caps and a few of us preferred the practice of carrying a specialized script.  There are other exotic practices. 

There are some people who do believe in the power of the red shirt. 


The Red Shirt 
Since the 1990s, the great Tiger Woods has always won his final round of tournament golf while wearing a red shirt.

After his recent injury, Tiger has not won a major tournament regardless of the wearing of the red shirt.  

Speculators and rivals started the rumor that the Tiger's magic was now gone and that fear, uncertainty and doubt have begun to penetrate into the head that wears the crown.


A New Follower of The Red Shirt
A few weeks ago, Patrick Reed emulated Tiger Wood's tradition by wearing the red shirt and black pants in the final round of the WGC-Cadillac Championship golf tournament and winning it with four strokes under par.
. 
There is nothing more humorous than a competitor who uses a psychological tactic against its originator.   It is slightly underhanded but harmless. 

Side Notes
Click here on the NY Times article on the mythology of the red shirt. You could also click here for another view. 

Psychology is Strategy
While imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, the smart strategists rarely enable the competition to use their own tactics to affect them. They always have a counter move ready for that possibility.  

Minor league rituals do not always win contests and wars.  Sound and solid preparation usually positioned the competing strategist one step closer to the starting line.  Effort and attitude usually enable him or her to break through the finishing line. 

Without depending on extreme chance, the mindful implementation of "proper execution" (in a moderately predictable setting) triumphs in most cases. 

It does not matter whether you believe in this category of tactical preparation. From our own experience, we concluded that this practice is a good psychological booster for the implementer.  

In an extreme competitive scenario, each and every advantage point must be secured from contest preparation to ritual practice to field competition. In your area of competition, do you know what it is?


Minor Jottings
"Concentrate every effort on subduing its heart and mind." 

Military Methods  33 

Implementing the counterpart's favorite tendencies could be distracting and disruptive against them. 

"In planning never a useless move.  In strategy, no step is in vain."

Chen Hao

From our own private research, extreme but successful competitors quietly mastered the technicalities behind it before ever committing to it in a real time scenario .

Conclusively, the implementation of this "unique" approach is "fair game."

#

Succeeding in Chess By Implementing Underhanded Tactics (1)

Source: Flicker 

updated at 18:18 hrs

Some of us are gamers.  We enjoyed the intellectual intensity of a table game or a field game. We believed in following the rule of playing the game within the letter of the rules and regulations.  If there is a gray spot in its content, we expected the extreme-minded competitor to exploit it to their advantage.  

During our venturing, we have seen many categories of underhanded tactics. 

Following is an abridged set of those tactics that we have seen in various chess matches or have read about: 

The "Sunlight in the Eye" Tactic
Ruy Lopez,  a Spanish priest  was famous for utilizing sunlight to blind his opponent during a game. This tactic is similar to the tactic that Miyamoto Musashi have used to defeat Suzuki in a sword duel. 

The "Food on Table" Tactic
One associate's favorite tactic was eating a heavy pastrami sandwich and drinking carbonated water during the game. The scent of the pastrami and the burping could moderately disrupt the concentration of the opponent.

The "Tapping on the Table with a Metal Mechanical Pencil" Tactic
Another of favorite tactic of an associate  was the tapping on the game table with a metal mechanical pencil.  . . .  He would start the game by tapping it quite softly and slowly. As the game progressed on, the sound and the rate of tapping increases.  Once the superior position is achieved, the tapping decreases to one soft tap per minute.  It usually disrupts the concentration of the opponent.  (There are other special variations to this tactic.)

The "Humiliating the Winner" Tactic
Whenever losing a game, one would repeatedly yell the following message, "Why did I lose to this lucky moron?" through out the game room.  A certain famous chess player would implement this tactic whenever he loses to a weaker player.  . . .  Some "amateur" tennis players have also employed some variations of this tactic.  . . .  I personally find that tactic to be quite amateurish.  In a strategic game like chess, a focused player who wins, rarely relies on the "chance" factor.  It is better to lose with one's dignity in tact than to win as a classless idiot.

The "Late to The Game or Losing the game by Forfeit" Tactic
The great Robert James Fisher implemented this tactic against Spassky in the second game of the 1972 World Chess Championship.  This move unnerved Spassky so much that he lost the next game.   and did not recover until  the 11th game. ... 

This tactic has also been used in professional labor negotiation.   (We will discussed more on this tactic in a future post.)

Source

Comments From The Compass Desk
Regardless of the quantity of these unique tactics,  some of these tactics are quite crude and uncivil.  

Some desperate people do whatever it takes to win in spite of one's position in the game. They just do not know how to read the greater gameboard.

"According to Fan Li's book, 'If you're last use yin tactics, if you're first then use yang tactics. When you have exhausted the enemy's yang tactics. When you have exhausted the enemy's tactics. When you have exhausted the enemy measures, then expand your yin to the full and seize them.' This then is the subtle mysteriousness of yin and yang according to the strategists."  - Questions and Replies between T'ang T'ai-tsung and Li Wei-kung

One of our preferred set of "counter point" tactical strategies is to wear a pair of shades, a noise filtering head set, a heavy cotton baseball cap,  standing over the game table and drinking warm green tea during the game while pretended that English is not the preferred  language of personal communication.  It works quite well in critical game situations. ... 

From Sunzi's Art of War essay, these underhanded tactics are always organized under the category of "Unorthodox."    . . .  We recommended the reading of Dr. Sawyer's 100 Unorthodox Strategies and 36 Stratagems for unique ideas.  . . .  If you could transpose some of these concepts to the competitive side of chess, please contact us.  We would like to compare notes.  . . .   In our case, some of us have successfully utilized those concepts in the game of Poker and the game of Go (weiqi).   . . . We will discuss more on this topic in a future post.

Side Notes
Chess is a subset of life and life is an grander extension of chess.  The key to succeeding in one's existence is to be a winner in one's life not just on the chessboard.  ...  There is more to life than a game of chess.    ... Comparing go (weiqi) to chess is like comparing theoretical physics to accounting.  Most of us preferred the myriad of quality lessons that could be learned from the former.

"Win if you could.  Lose if you must.  Never get caught in the utilization of underhanded tactics.   ..."  
-  An Anonymous Strategist

# # # 

Profit by Assessing Strategically: Assessing the Quality of a Sword

(updated at 5:55 hr.)
Source

How do you assess an certain object in an uncertain setting?

While studying the video of a displayed sword or an actual sword at an auction, you wanted to know if it is an actual antique sword or a well-made replica.  

Lets say that you have decided to purchase a jian (a Chinese double-edged sword). Based on your "sword collecting" experience and some sword play training experience, you have already known that it is the lightest of the Chinese medium-sized weapons and requires a great "intent-driven" skill to manipulate.  

Purchasing a Sword

As the blade was being slid from the sheath, you noticed the color of the blade as a glow of light that was reflected on it.

You were quietly impressed by the opulence and the elegance of the sword. After a few moments, you decided to seriously assess this exotic sword. 

The first step was the estimating of the weight, the length of the sword and the width of the blade in a New York second. 

The next step is the visual inspection of the pommel, the tang, the slab, the cross guard and the blade.

While estimating the thickness of the handle, you are also studying the design of the hilt.  Because of your expertise, you understood the origin of the design, the possible quality of metal from hilt to blade and the weight of the blade.

Beside on some of the earlier points, you have concluded that the hilt of the sword could be heavier than the blade.

Assessing the Sword By Physical Swordplay

Some novices or ranked amateurs would occasionally grab the bladed implement, look at it with a glance, feel the weight and the blade and started to "sling and fling" the blade geometrically a few times before stopping and deciding whether to procure it or not. Others just visually assess the blade, and concluded the possible quality of the sword before ever touching it or bargaining for it.

/// # We preferred to methodically and mindfully assess  any quality item that is exotic, exclusive and esoteric.  Beside evaluating the sharpness and the weight of the blade, we have always examine whether the sword is properly balanced by checking whether the pommel supports the rear of the hand, is able to counterbalance the blade's weight while also inspecting the quality of the scab that covers the tang.   # /// 

Before handling the sword, you were already warned about its extreme sharpness. The risk consequence of playing with this implement is quite obvious.

Your deep training in most categories of swords and the act of unifying your mind-body, qi and spirit gave you the skill to mindfully manipulate this sword with zero effort by carefully holding the sword in stillness while focusing on the outpoint of the sword, before any physical motion begins.  (You could read more on this subject matter by visiting our friends at Cook Ding's Kitchen. They have a stronger internal martial art background than we do. ... They are the specialists. We are just the martial arts newbies. )  ... 

There is more to this particular category of Chinese sword play than the action of drawing, cutting/thrusting and sheathing the blade. The constant practice of this "mindful aware-driven" exercise has enabled you to implement purposeful movements in your sword play and motion were not wasted. 

After a period of experimenting, you began to compare the experience of playing with this sword with the previous experiences of playing with the other similar swords. That requires a unique skill.   Those who have tangible martial art skills and experience, know what we are discussing. 

Mindful Practice
While some result-driven sword players are lucky that they are able to mindfully concentrate on their breathing, their balance and their rhythm, we preferred to focus our attention to the following five quality principles (or factors) while doing anything relevant:   

• Centering the body; 
• Relaxing the body; 
• Connecting the whole body to the ground;
• Calming the body; and 
• Feeling the body in a "whole/complete" perspective.

Whether you are assessing the quality of the sword or the quality of food, comparing and contrasting the various factors from each experience is how one profits in our information economy.  ... This is a deep psychological practice that requires many hours of continuous preparation. 

Back to the topic of sword, you might ask the following question, "whether the quality of this experience matches the value of this exotic sword?"

Side Notes 
After that experience of 120 seconds of swordplay, you have realized that this sword by itself dominates nothing. It only comes alive through your skillful manipulation.  . . .  Playing with a sword or any object does not build character.  It reveals the essence of the swordplayer.  ... In some instances, each action is an unified extension of the mind, the body and the spirit. . . . Mastery of real skills requires a sound and solid direction and many quiet sessions of mindful and insightful practices.

By watching the second video, one realized that good sword play with the jian is about being strong while being supple. 

The best swordplay in any chaotic situation is not to remove it from the sheath. 

In my case, i usually preferred the utilization of an exotic pen over a sword in certain situations.  Our other associates preferred the balance of both implements. 

Comment From The Compass Desk 

So how do you profit from this post? ... 

Because of the speed of the technology and the basic emotional behavior pattern to decide immediately, some members of the masses have a tendency to be deceived by obvious frauds.  ...  Whether you are assessing the purchase of a sword, an automobile or a sandwich, do you realistically assess the quality of any items before buying it?  ... The extra step could de-accelerate the act of immediate gratification. Ensuring that the deception has a hidden negative affect. That might have a value price of lost time and lost resources.  ... So, who do you trust?  Trust yourself.  ... Assess, Position and Influence.  ...

Look at the act of strategic assessment as one ounce of prevention.  

"One ounce of prevention is equal to one pound of cure."

"A snitch of time saves nine."

The constant saving of time and financial resources creates a gradual profit gain.

The avoidance of many "trial and error" sessions and the possibility of macro negative risk-consequences could occur by being strategically mindful in one's decision to assess.  

Playing the game of constant upgrade is something that we could not avoid, Getting constantly deceived is a game that one wants to avoid. From our own experience, learn the practice of assessing is quite beneficial in understanding the certainty of a scenario..  ... But it takes time to do it.  ... This view does not correspond with those ADD people who have the need for immediate gratification.

One only assesses when he/she cares about their own current situation and do not trust the projected certainty of their grand situation. (Compass Rule 101)... Think about it.  ... 

Psychology is Strategy  

One's psychological view of a situation determines their strategic objective and their approach.  The possession of the means and the quality of the modes are two factors  that determine whether the person has the essential substance to solve the objective is the tangible challenge. 

Macro Assessment Pointers 

• Reading and recognizing the criticalness of one's grand situation and beyond. 
• Knowing the configuration and the connectivity of the situation before deciding on the factors that influence the situation.
• Performing various degrees of scenario modeling before deciding.

If the current situation is insignificant and stable, pointer #2 and pointer #3 become immaterial.

Theoretically, it is that simple.  ...  Tactically, the mastery of those three pointers usually required a large range of concentration and practice.  Do you have it?   If so, are you willing to improve on those skills?

Do you really display a serious sense of care and concern on your daily habits and tasks or any relevant task/objective?. ... 

Assessing anything relevant means that one must be methodical by style while being mindfully aware of the influences that affected him or her, the terrain and whatever is beyond those points. 

We do not expected anyone to immediately understand this post and those three mentioned pointers. Because of the velocity and the veracity that are affecting our society, some people might be harshly influenced to mindfully understand the essence of this material one day. 

Think about it.  .. .Good luck. ... 

# # # 

Side note: There are more specific steps to assessing a Chinese double edged sword. We will publish it in our future "Strategic Assessment" book.   For more information on learning the basics of swords, please visit sword forum.  It is a great place to learn about swords.  ... Some of us are occasional visitors of that informative site. 

Profiting Through Deception in the Cyber Economy (updated) [Interesting Article from the Wall Street Journal]

(The earlier version of this post was accidentally activated. 

It has been correctly updated at 17:18 hrs)

Assessing for deception is the secondary aim of a web surfer in the information economy. The general goals of most web surfers is to shop for bargains or to secure general information while wasting time.

Many days ago, Wall Street Journal published a interesting article on how some retailers were "gaming" their ever obsessive compulsive customer base. 

/// Some of us who have worked in retail (during our college days), always knew how retailers shaped a "legal" deception to create interest. ///

To understand the tangibility behind the over-hyped retail economy, the retailers have been using "big data" tools to understand the supply of certain products and the demand of the targeted consumers. Then they would create the "hype" that manipulates the emotional need of their targeted clientele.

The results from this manipulation should be obvious.

As it gets closer to the Christmas, the prices frequently drop.  By being willing to play the "waiting game", the shoppers would have received the gratification of saved money.

Immediate emotional gratification of purchasing overpaid items or delayed emotional gratification of saved money. ... Which is better for you? 

The Compass Approach
Successful strategists usually utilize the cyclical approach to examine the "deceptive" state of the situation.  Regardless of the item, they usually play the "cycle" game and wait until the hype dissipates and the prices drop. 

Remember, no hype stays forever.  Sooner or later, the tangibility of the situation would always appeared to the mindful observers.  ... Successful strategists are always focused on their objectives while being constantly mindful of the Big Tangible Picture of their situation and beyond.  (The unmindful ones are just lucky. Sooner or later, the curve will win.)

"The Sage observes signs from the movements of Heaven and Earth and knows its principles. He observes the movement of the sun and the moon and understand their seasonal activity. He follows the cycles of day and night, taken them as his constant. All things have life and death in accord with the principles of Heaven and Earth. Thus it is said that if one fights before understanding the situation, even if he is more numerous, he will certainly be defeated."  - Six Secret Teachings

The first step of our approach is to assess the seasonal configuration of the Big Tangible Picture for that situation. Then, examine the driving factors that created the state of the current situation before determining when is the next seasonal change. You do know how to do that.  Do you?

Side Notes on Other Deceptive Means
Beside the mentioned point of deceiving, there are other cyber means to mislead the non-attentive. Click here,  here,  here and here for some other examples.  ... 

Even some Yelp reviews and some aspects of Twitter are questionable.

When surfing the web, you should be aware of the other "relevant" news links that would divert you from your goal.

Also, be aware of the web sites that you are visiting and what web link that you are going to click on. Be mindful of the patterns of consistency and inconsistency. 

To detect the technological-driven deception, the cyclical approach might not be always effective.  ... Staying centered and be quietly observant of the current situation is step one. Then, ask yourself, "does the configuration of the situation technically connect to the Big Picture?  ... "

Based on that answer, you should be able to determine what is the tangibility of the situation. 

Final Thoughts
To avoid being a victim of any category of deception, you must be critical in your assessment.  ...  Whether you are surfing the web or walking the streets of your city or town, carefully observe your terrain. Focus on the integrity of the situation by examining the components behind it. ... After a quiet session of mindful observation, you might realized that all that glitter is not gold.

Think about it.

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