Assessing Kirosawa's Seven Samurai Movie by Using the Sunzi's Victory Temple Methodology

(updated on 1.25.16)

An associate recently saw Kurosawa's Seven Samurai and asked us to review the strategy used by film by utilizing the  Sunzi's Victory Temple assessment strategy.

I do not think any one of us could written a superior review compared to the New York Times. Click here for that film review..

“Before the contest, the successful strategists resolve in their operations room (temple) that they will be victorious, have determined that the majority of factors are in their favor. … If those who find that the majority of factors favor them, will be victorious.  … When observing from this viewpoint, victory and defeat will be apparent.” 

- Art of War 1 (Paraphrased from the Sawyer's translation) 

Is it that simple to know what factors are in play?


Assessing the Possibility of Victory "Those who excel in warfare contend for advantage with others only after determining through temple calculations that they will be successful. Attacking the rebellious and embracing the distant, toppling the lost and solidifying the extant and uniting the weak and attacking the benighted are all manifestations.  The interior and exterior becoming estranged, as in the case of the Shang and Chou armies, is what is referred to as having determined victory through temple calculations before engaging  in combat.  

According to T'ai-yi Tun-chia assessment method, anything above sixty a majority, anything below sixty is  a minority.  ... In all these  cases, victory and defeat are easily seen. "      
- Li Quan's  T'ai-pai Yin-ching

# The Factors

The "Evolving Technology" Factor 
Technology always evolves. Strategic situation changes.  Man must adjust to it. One should never be a victim of the latest technology.

All four dead samurai(s) were eradicated by gunfire not by bladeplay.

The "Reward and Punishment" Factor
It is not a good idea for a skilled and reputable contractor to work for a meal of minimum value (a bowl of rice).

The farmers and Kambei had a difficult time to recruit "alpha class" contractors (samurai) for a "rice bowl" expedition. The only samurai who had alpha-class combat (sword) skill was Kyuzo while Kambei Shimada possessed tangible strategic experience .

The "Team Unity" Factor
When the farmers and the other samurai(s) believed in the plan, they became unified on defeating the bandits.

The "Experience" Factor
Regardless of the "extensive" combat training to any of the farmers, "relevant" field experience counts.

The "Near-Perfect Planning" Factor
When operating under a rice bowl budget, all planned strategic moves must never be useless and no implemented tactical steps are deployed in vain.

Knowing the "Tactical Specifics" Factor 
Knowing the configuration of the terrain and the opposition's motives and the methods usually determines the tactical specifics of each combating strategist.

(Kambei Shimada, the leader of the Seven Samurai, spent a great deal of time understanding the configuration of the client's terrain before developing the strategy of molding the terrain to their advantage.)

The "Attack and Defense" Factor 
The best defense is a good counter offense. Regardless of the terrain, one does not constantly play the "defending by preventing" game. View each of the battles carefully and you might understand this lesson.

Kambei Shimada: Go to the north. The decisive battle will be fought there.
Gorobei Katayama: Why didn't you build a fence there?
Kambei Shimada: A good fort needs a gap. The enemy must be lured in. So we can attack them. If we only defend, we lose the war

The "Survival of the Fittest" Factor 
Going from square one of a "chaotic" campaign to its final endpoint in "one piece" is always a grind.  The "Survival of the Fittest" principle prevails for those who are smart and tough.

The "Happy Client" Factor 
The victory of any strategic situation always belong to the client not to the consulting contractors. In most instances, the surviving contractors usually move on to the next project. (Look at the last scene.)

Kambei Shimada: So. Again we are defeated.
[Shichiroji looks puzzled at Kambei]
Kambei Shimada: The farmers have won. Not us.


The "Contradiction" Factor
Regardless of the numbers game and the terrain that favored the villagers, the bandits had the advantage of the technology (firearms), the battle experience and the horses.

Understanding the contradictions that were operating within a strategic situation usually enables the experienced strategist to gain a better perspective of whether a strategic advantage can be developed.

The "Professional Experience" Factor 
(A lesson from the "Kambei Shimada" character) One climbs the economic-social food chain by not being on the losing side of a competition regardless of the quantity of quality experience

Strategizing From The View of Lloyd Blankfein

updated at 18:18 hrs

It is always interesting to listen and learn how other strategists manage their major strategic decisions.

Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman’s current chief executive, loves to tell people that he spends “98 percent of my time thinking about 2 percent probabilities."   ... It becomes the alpha priority especially in the area of managing risk in different situations. 

In your competitive terrain, where do you think that 2% is located at ?

Do you think that you can capitalize on the 2% before your competition can?

• Source: Dao of Strategy

###

Q: Why do you think the 2% is focused on?
A: The 2% depicts whether the best case or the worst case scenario would happen at all.

                                                             ###

The Charlie Rose View
This past Tuesday night, I saw a superb Charlie Rose interview with Lloyd Blankfein.   It revealed the strategic mindset of Mr. Blankfein in regards to how he strategizes from a top-bottom view..

# From Businessinsider.com

Lloyd Blankfein called himself "a highly functional paranoid" on Charlie Rose last night.   

"...when the phone rings too late at night or too early in the morning I'm going, "Oh, my God, what happened?"

He continued: "...I spend about -- I have the unhappy life of having to spend about 98 percent of my time worried about the 2 percent worst contingencies." 

Here's a partial transcript: 

...

Lloyd Blankfein: Well, I'm in the risk management business, so I don't take it for granted that I can see behind -- I don't think I can see four inches into the future.  I'd say that most of my --

Charlie Rose: [laughs] Yeah, but your firm has a reputation of being pretty good at understanding the future and being able to make some analysis as to about what risks to take.

Lloyd Blankfein: Well, I'll confess to you that what I think we aspire to is less foresee the future and more be a great contingency planner because -- and sometimes you contingency plan really well and you can respond very fast to what's happening because you thought through all the possibilities, you can get off the mark so quickly it looks like you false started, it looks like you anticipated the start when all you've really done was listen so closely and knew what you were going to do that you got off the mark quickly.  I think it's hard enough to -- I think it's hard enough to predict the present.  You know, think about it, perspective, it's very hard to step out of your context and see what is happening.  I have views about the future but I will tell you we're not in the – you wouldn't be a very good risk manager if you let what you think was going to happen have too great an influence on what you plan for and protect it against.  What we really do is we really contingency plan, what might happen, what could happen.

Charlie Rose: What is your core competence?

Lloyd Blankfein: Personally?

Charlie Rose: Yes.

Lloyd Blankfein: You know, I think I am -- I think I have -- I am a highly functional paranoid.

Charlie Rose:[laughs]

Lloyd Blankfein: And if I'm -- if I've taken some -- if I've overstated [unintelligible] highly functional part, I'm sure I'm a paranoid.

Charlie Rose: [laughs] Paranoid about what?

Lloyd Blankfein: Well, I have to worry about stuff, you know, every -- listen, when the phone rings too late at night or too early in the morning I'm going, "Oh, my God, what happened?"

Charlie Rose: "I don't want to answer it."

Lloyd Blankfein: "What is somebody --" no, I have to answer. And, in fact, if it stopped ringing I'd call everybody I knew at work to find out what I missed.

Charlie Rose: [laughs]

Lloyd Blankfein: No, I'm -- you know, I spend about -- I have the unhappy life of having to spend about 98 percent of my time worried about the 2 percent worst contingencies.

Perhaps that's why sometimes he prays for a rainy weekend so he can just lie on the couch.

• Source: Businessinsider.com...

Comments From The Compass Desk
There are many ways to perform scenario modeling. I preferred to use the "Temple Victory" process.

“Before the contest, the successful strategists resolve in their operations room (temple) that they will be victorious, have determined that the majority of factors are in their favor. … If those who find that the majority of factors favor them, will be victorious.  … When observing from this viewpoint, victory and defeat will be apparent.” 

- Art of War 1 (Paraphrased from the Sawyer's translation) 

Is it that simple?

The real challenge is knowing what factors are in play and the mathematics behind it.  ...

The Li Quan Perspective

"Those who excel in warfare contend for advantage with others only after determining through temple calculations that they will be successful. Attacking the rebellious and embracing the distant, toppling the lost and solidifying the extant and uniting the weak and attacking the benighted are all manifestations.  The interior and exterior becoming estranged, as in the case of the Shang and Chou armies, is what is referred to as having determined victory through temple calculations before engaging  in combat.  
According to T'ai-yi Tun-chia assessment method, anything above sixty a majority, anything below sixty is  a minority.  ... In all these  cases, victory and defeat are easily seen. "   
- Li Quan's  T'ai-pai Yin-ching

Based on the "completeness" of one's assessment, the successful strategists determined the strategic efficiency of their situation and decides whether it is possible to prevail in any specific contest.

#  #  #

The Dao of Profiling a Decision Maker (and Other Strategic Matters)

Floridasportsman.com

Side note: Enjoy this humorous note on strategic decision management from our circle of associates 

Once there were a group of medical professionals who went duck hunting. It was consisted of an internist, a psychiatrist, a surgeon, and a pathologist.

The internist was up first and takes aim. A duck flies by. He looks up and thinks, "hmm... could it be a goose, a gander, a duck? how about a swan? an eagle, a hawk? No! It is not likely but still possible. What about another waterfowl? Hmm..." After a moment, the duck was out of the range in one breath. 

It was now the psychiatrist's turn.  Five seconds later, a slew of ducks flew by. His thoughts were like this - "there is a duck - I know it - but does the duck know that I know that it's a duck?"  A few seconds later, this duck disappears.

The surgeon was up next and takes aim. Before a bird was even clearly in sight, he shot his gun. ... It was a loud BANG! In the distance, something dropped from the sky. The surgeon turns to the pathologist and says "Go tell me what that is".

Side note: 
There was an anesthesiologist who was invited to this event and told everyone: "I would rather not go. If you kill a duck, you'll all blame me at the end. ..."

Wikipedia

Epilogue
It was the pathologist's turn to shoot.  For the last five minutes, a  heavy wind have been blasting through the terrain from left to right. After looking at his watch, he quietly checked on the wind direction and speed again and began to wait.  15 minutes later, the wind slowly died.

The pathologist walked 25 feet to the left of their location, looked at his watch and waited for the next thirty minutes while his party of hunters were silently watched him.    

A light breeze slowly began to blow from left to right again.  ... The pathologist blew his duck call thrice and  positioned himself in a ready posture behind the tall grass.  He stood silently still, breathing deeply while quietly focusing his attention on the far right side of the horizon.  

Within five seconds, two flying ducks immediately appeared from the far right side of the horizon.  The breeze immediately became stronger and immediately slowed down their flight's momentum.  Within a split second, he exhaled, pulled the trigger twice and successfully shot both ducks.

Hrs before their gathering, the pathologist studied the configuration of the hunting terrain by focusing his time on knowing the climate for that day, the daily and seasonal wind patterns, the different types of flying birds,  the flight tendencies of each bird (esp. the ducks), the best vantage point  and other unique datapoints. 

Regardless of the situation, the successful strategists usually utilized all of the relevant information to their advantage.  The Art of War and The Six Secret Teachings  referred this action as a part of the strategic power analogy.  We humorously referred to it as "The Compass Spin." 

Comments From the Compass Desk

Ask yourself, which profile describes you?  ... Using the medical analogy, are you the internist (the guesser who is focused on getting the reductive answer), the psychiatrist (the deep thinker who ponders on a situation and occasionally does not make the prompt decision), the surgeon (the high-end gambling expediter who does not know the particular end in the mind), the anesthesiologist (another high-end strategist who does not like to make risky decisions) or the pathologist (the person who precisely knows the hows and the whys of any situation before making the timely move)?  Or are you a combination of any of those five profiles?

Look around you. There are many decision makers who have behaved in those modes.  Can you connect with them?

The Final Point
Before executing your grand process of ready, aim and fire, assess your setting, position yourself ahead of the situation and influence your target with timely execution.
# # #

The Reality of Playing the Strategy Game (4)

{ We offer a thank you to Mr. TrhSkr of Tx. for the suggestion of this article. }

In the pro sport business, each previous game is studied repeatedly. Each side idealistically knows the tendencies of the other. How does one surprises their competition during the game?

The Concept

1. Understand the tendencies of of both sides.

2. Add one to two new wrinkles to the gameplan.

The design of the surprise plays is to be conceptually opposite of the implementer's tendencies while connecting toward the anticipated tendencies of the competitors.

Beside deceiving and manipulating the competitor's mindset, this tactical mean could also invigorates the implementer's team.

Implementation During the Confrontation

Influencing the competition toward one's psychological direction by targeting on their tendencies. Soon, they will believe that they really know their counterpart's decision management process. The occurrence of an anticipated situation allows the chief decision maker(s) to implement the deception.

The success usually energizes the implementer's team while demoralizing the competition. Idealistically, the outcome must be a momentum changer. They rarely lead to an immediate win.

You can find more information on this topic by reading the following Chinese strategy classics (i.e., Dr. Sawyer's Seven Military Classics of Ancient China, 100 Unorthodox Strategies, Sun Bin's Military Methods, Dr. Ames's translation of Sun Bin, etc.)

Reality Check

Do you know if your competitors are gaining market share by deceiving the customer base?

If so, how are you countering it?

Solution

Always assess the Big Tangible Picture before deciding on anything relevant.

Stay focused to one's grand objective by avoiding the feeling of fear and panic. Remember to ensure that the attributes of one's grand objective connects to the Big Tangible Picture.

Then, ask yourself the following question- who is ahead of the curve and the competition? If you want to know what are the rest of the questions, send us a note. Or ask your "loco" Sunzi reader/expert if he or she knows those questions.

Through the comprehension of the Big Tangible Picture, one feels no fear, no uncertainty, and no doubt.
#

Assess, Position and Influence (7): Understanding the connections

(from Facebook)

In the information economy, one usually realized that almost everything economically around him or her is somehow connected to the web.

Last month, there was an interesting article in the NY Times about how global companies responded to a black swan event within their supply chain.

# From our experience, the black swan usually originated from within one's settings.Occasionally, the long-term rewards for "just-in-case" situation exceed the short-term rewards for "just-in-time" situation. In various cases, many companies do not like to prepare for the long term. ... Adding inventories and backup suppliers reduces risk by increasing the redundancy in a supply system. It also enhances resilience. The trade off is the increase of operating costs. If you were the chief decision maker, would you choose the Just-in-time model or the Just-in-case model? ... When deciding, what strategic and operational factors would you focused on?

Compass View

Under the settings of the information economy, our world is considered to be strategically flat.

Successful business strategists understand the grand connection from the basic ingredients through the suppliers to the manufacturers and finally to the marketplace. The connective understanding of the economics, the logistics and the other tangible influences enabled them to prepare for the best case scenarios and the worst case scenarios. Anticipating possible scenarios is how they have always stayed ahead of the curve.

The key to succeeding is having the time, the resources and the skills to properly connect the dots.

Reflections

Based on your various projects, do you know the tangible specifics and the connections from the initial stage to the final stage?

Do you know the connections of the influences that control your settings?

Summary

When the strategists see the tangible causes of the connections, they would have a better chance of enhancing their settings. Whether they have the wisdom and the courage to pursue the opportunity is a different tale.

The Abstract Behind The Compass Decision (1)

We have occasionally met with chief decision makers of all sorts and discussed about the different matters regarding to their views of what strategy is about. During the course of our conversation, we asked them about their strategic decision-making process . Some of them have told us that they have a tendency to implement their strategy regardless of the circumstances. They are rarely process-driven and feel that the concept of "assessing the big picture before acting" takes too long and that it is technically irrelevant. The only thing that counts is their ability to make things happen and lead their team to capitalist glory.

The Flaw Behind Their Strategic Decision Management Process

Due to a lack of complete information, they do not understand whether the grand situation is stable or chaotic. Their absolute focus is to understand of the immediate risk/rewards, not the risk consequences that are derived from the outcome of their decisions. .

A breakdown of different strategic decision-making styles

Regardless of their style of decision-making, we usually emphasized to them the importance of increasing their understanding of the big tangible picture before implementing any strategic moves. Conclusively, it usually leads to a better decision.

Following is a list of questions that might provoke some thoughts:

• What is your view of the big picture?
• How do you use it to your advantage?
• What is your process to transform your assessment to a tangible plan?

We will further touch on this topic at a later post.

side note: We will discuss the matter of "when to make contingency moves" in our future book.

The Dao of Leadership (2): Opposite Sides of an Implemented Decision

There are two sides to the matter of General Stanley McChrystal.

View #1: It is better to tell truth to the public

View #2: When you work for someone, it is better to keep the differences behind closed doors.

Whenever there are two opposing views between two strong egos, . There will be one outcome.

Retrospectively, is this the best way to exit?

Compass Rule: Keep private matters behind the closed doors of the back room.

Pragmatic Practices (4): Reading Data

To compete effectively in this information economy, the successful strategist usually knows the proper approach for any given situation.

Having the ability to absorb information and then connecting it to the big picture are two of the many needed skills that propels him/her to make quick strategic decisions.