Showing posts with label The Sign of the Times. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Sign of the Times. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Protecting One's Intellectual Property in the Info. Economy (Marvin Gayle Family + $ 7M Allan Thicke and Pharrell Williams -$7 M )


Unlike the Art of War cult, most of the members of Compass360 Consulting are not devotees of pop culture.  Other than watching competitive pro sports and business channels, standing still,  walking circles and listening to Mozart, we are focused on their plateau of the "grand strategy" game.

In the information economy, the non-innovative competitors will do whatever it takes to gain some market equilibrium.

While scanning through Google News today, one of us discovered this interesting legal case between The Marvin Gayle Family and Allan Thicke,  Pharrell Williams and  Rapper T.I.



Click here  and here on the outcome of this legal case

Lesson
IP thievery will constantly occur.

Study the history of your competitive terrain during your down time and understand the proclivity of the top contenders and the up and coming pretenders. Then you will understand what competitive darwinism is.  Human behavior does not change that much.

Avoid the Matthew Effect by building internal safeguards that allow your operational team to capitalize on the greed and the errors of the thieves.


The Matthew Effect
In the sociology of science, "Matthew effect" was a term coined by Robert K. Merton to describe how, among other things, eminent scientists will often get more credit than a comparatively unknown researcher, even if their work is similar; it also means that credit will usually be given to researchers who are already famous.[6][7] For example, a prize will almost always be awarded to the most senior researcher involved in a project, even if all the work was done by a graduate student. This was later formulated by Stephen Stigler as Stigler's law — "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer" — with Stigler explicitly naming Merton as the true discoverer, making his "law" an example of itself.
  • Laboratory and natural experiments manipulate download counts or bestseller lists for books and music show consumer activity follows the apparent popularity.[8][9]
Ray Solomonoff [...] introduced [what is now known as] "Kolmogorov complexity" in a long journal paper in 1964. [...] This makes Solomonoff the first inventor and raises the question whether we should talk about Solomonoff complexity. [...]
  • There are many uncontroversial examples of the Matthew effect in mathematics, where a concept is due to one mathematician (and well-documented as such), but is attributed to a later (possibly much later), more famous mathematician who worked on it. For instance, the Poincaré disk model and Poincaré half-plane model of hyperbolic space are both named for Henri Poincaré, but were introduced by Eugenio Beltrami in 1868 (when Poincaré was 14 and had not as yet contributed to hyperbolic geometry).
  • A model for career progress quantitatively incorporates the Matthew Effect in order to predict the distribution of individual career length in competitive professions. The model predictions are validated by analyzing the empirical distributions of career length for careers in science and professional sports (e.g.Major League Baseball).[11] As a result, the disparity between the large number of short careers and the relatively small number of extremely long careers can be explained by the "rich-get-richer" mechanism, which in this framework, provides more experienced and more reputable individuals with a competitive advantage in obtaining new career opportunities.
  • In his 2011 book The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declinedcognitive psychologist Steven Pinker refers to the Matthew Effect in societies, whereby everything seems to go right in some, and wrong in others. He speculates in Chapter 9 that this could be the result of a positive feedback loop in which reckless behavior by some individuals creates a chaotic environment that encourages reckless behavior by others. He cites research by Martin Daly and Margo Wilson showing that the more unstable the environment, the more steeply people discount the future, and thus the less forward-looking their behavior.
In science, dramatic differences in the productivity may be explained by three phenomena: sacred spark, cumulative advantage, and search costs minimization by journal editors. The sacred spark paradigm suggests that scientists differ in their initial abilities, talent, skills, persistence, work habits, etc. that provide particular individuals with an early advantage. These factors have a multiplicative effect which helps these scholars succeed later. The cumulative advantage model argues that an initial success helps a researcher gain access to resources (e.g., teaching release, best graduate students, funding, facilities, etc.), which in turn results in further success. Search costs minimization by journal editors takes place when editors try to save time and effort by consciously or subconsciously selecting articles from well-known scholars. Whereas the exact mechanism underlying these phenomena is yet unknown, it is documented that a minority of all academics produce the most research output and attract the most citations.[12]
  • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_effect

Comments From the Compass Desk
To prevent the Matthew's Effect, it is important to develop a sense of mindful strategic awareness.

The attribute usually enables one to achieve "a complete victory" that is not impacted by self-afflicted pains.

The challenge is doing it on a 24/7 mode.

Sunday, March 2, 2014

A Subtle Message on the Essence of Competition From California Governor Jerry Brown


updated at  21:39 hr

Governor Brown expressed his reservations about legalizing marijuana for recreational use.
  

"fiscal discipline is the fundamental predicate of a free society, ...  but it may help if everyone isn't getting stoned.  ... Well, we have medical marijuana, which gets very close to what they have in Colorado and Washington,  ... I'd really like those two states to show us how it's going to work. The problem with anything, a certain amount is OK.  But there is a tendency to go to extremes. And all of a sudden, if there's advertising and legitimacy, how many people can get stoned and still have a great state or a great nation? The world's pretty dangerous, very competitive. I think we need to stay alert, if not 24 hours a day, more than some of the potheads might be able to put together."

Read
more here: http://blogs.sacbee.com/capitolalertlatest/2014/03/jerry-brown-worries-about-marijuana-legalization-and-potheads.html#storylink=cpy

Read more here: http://blogs.sacbee.com/capitolalertlatest/2014/03/jerry-brown-worries-about-marijuana-legalization-and-potheads.html#storylink=cpy

Sources:   Politico,   Sacramento Bee and  Washington Times


It is rare that the top-down results-based people and the field level "ground up" people are able to see the possible positivity and the possible negativity that could originate from the opposite view.  . . .  Governor Brown is one of those rare individuals who understands the opposing sides that originate from the legalization of marijuana.  . . . 

Look at the state of Copenhagen, Denmark. One man's positive is another man's negative and vice-versa.   . . . Read and reflect on why other countries are still illegalizing marijuana.  . . . 

It takes an abundance of rules and regulations to manage this legal process. Who is willing to create the system and manage it? Is the projected outcome is greater than the projected income?

The State of Competition
"Competition is the greatest matter of any capitalistic economy, the basis of success and failure, the Dao to survival or extinction. It must be thoroughly contemplated and analysed." 
- Art Of War 1

The understanding of the social-economic psychology behind a grand situation enables one to see the risk benefits, the risk consequences and the challenges of a major political-social decision.   Could you see the chain reaction that could originate from this above decision?

The only way to stay safe is to assume the worst until one could see the matrix of connectivity that lies within the situation. 


Side Notes
The competitively innovative people are regularly mindfully alert. The state of being mindfully "stoned," will usually lower the state of competitive efficiency. 

One stays alert by practicing the art of mindful centerness. From personal experience, mindful centerness and sipping some good tea will assist one in become innovative.  ... While necessity is the mother of invention, mindful experience and conscious awareness are usually the causes for great innovation.

# # # 

Friday, June 15, 2012

Compass Trend #22: The Automated Economy Continues


We predicted this trend of fast food eateries replacing their human workers with robots  in 2010.  ... Do you know why it is becoming relevant?  ...


Saturday, August 6, 2011

Compass Trend (6): Increasing Efficiency Through Automation


We are always wondering what would the future bring? Regardless where our position is at, some of us are just confused about the uncertainty factor. The most difficult task to perform is to spend some time viewing the Big Tangible Picture.

We are currently living in an information economy where "achieving the cost effectiveness and operational efficiency" is the mantra. The grand priority objective is to lower the human labor costs while maximizing the profits through the application of standards and technological-driven process.

Current Business Situation
In previous posts, we talked about the robotics trend in the service industry. Foxcom recently decided to pursued the solution of robotics. ... When the robots performed the majority of the manufacturing work, where would the workers go?... What are the odds of this company finding work for their workers?

While technology is constantly evolving, some people read the Big Tangible Picture and anticipating the on-coming trend. and adjusting to the non-obvious after-effects. These people quietly thrive. In most cases, the masses react. some survive. The rest just grinds.

Retrospectively, the evolution of technology usually diminishes the economic influence of the masses. The key is to staying ahead of the technological curve while maintaining one's focus on the target.

Summary
What does it all mean? Each day, there are mountains of information that one must digest per day . Whether one can prioritize this amount of information is another story.

It begins by assessing the Big Tangible Picture (BTP).

Following is a short listing of questions that you should ask yourself at the end of the day:
  • So what is in my BTP!?
  • How do I prioritizes my information?
  • How do I usually grade the quality of my information?
  • Is my situation stable?
  • Am I ahead or behind?

Regardless of the times and settings, the successful strategist always assesses the Big Tangible Picture (BTP) before deciding strategically.

Following are some of the key Compass Rules that you should remember:
  • Always assess the Big Tangible Picture (BTP) before deciding strategically;
  • Identify the various choices;
  • Determine the advantages and disadvantages of each choice;
  • Weight the risks and rewards of each choice;
  • Balance one's own "Big Picture" to the reality of one's grand settings; and
  • Act accordingly
As a reminder, always review each past strategic situation when necessary.

Saturday, June 18, 2011

The Sign of the Times: Operational Effectiveness

Whether one is running a business or a high profile high rewards product groups, operational effectiveness. Politicians are also bantering this same message.

The benefits of well-played operational effectiveness usually means the reduction of costs, the minimization of response time and the mitigation of risk. It starts by increasing the quantity of productivity-driven practices, standardization of procedures and using the correct technological devices.

There is no perfect system. It is a process of continuous improvement.

Bridging the gap between risk management and cost effectiveness is the key to operational effectiveness. In a future post, we will discuss this matter.


The Big Tangible Picture
We believed that this trend will continue. There is a limitation to everything. Sooner or later, the non-innovative, but competitively efficient medical hospitals will have to compete against each other for a large piece of the pie, for the purpose of survival. While the strong organizations occasionally acquire the weaker organizations at some point of the game, the smarter organizations will thrive by focusing on becoming competitively innovative.

Based on historical data, there is always a possibility that the customer base might suffer on the long run. This is the sign of the times.

Building operational effectiveness is the fundamental basis for establishing strategic power.

Sunday, June 12, 2011

Compass Trend (5): Automated Code Generation

In the automotive industry, auto code generation is currently being used in the development of engine controller. The value of labor is now focused on creating efficient specifications while lowering the labor costs of grinding out C code.

The optimization of fat and bloated code is no longer necessary. The days of writing efficient code is near over. When in doubt, find a faster processor and add more memory chips. It is the sign of the times.

Monday, June 6, 2011

The Sign of the Times: The Automated Trend Continues (2)


Here is another example of the growing automated trend. ... IBM has been developing their version of automated efficiency for the cities. ... There are a few cities who could use this type of solution.

Click here for our past view on this trend.


Ruminations From the Compass Desk
With automation, the human error is near-eliminated. The operating costs and the labor costs are greatly lowered. Efficiency and profit are increased. Soon, every relevant competitor will be functioning at this level.

Big Tangible Picture
There is a limitation to the approach of automation, outsourcing and copycatting that can be achieved in a non-innovative and efficiency-driven information economy. Once the surviving (and thriving) competitors achieved their apex level of efficiency, will they have the economics, the logistics, and the drive to compete against each other effectively? ... What is the possibility of these market players being involved in the excessive game of competitive darwinism? ...

Based on current data, we assessed that the model of "the last three men standing" would be prevailing in various macro marketplaces,

We will focus on the negatives after-effects of the "efficiency-driven" mindset i
n a future post.

Friday, June 3, 2011

The Sign of the Times: Manufactured U.S. Goods


The growing trend for purchasing upper quality U.S. manufactured goods has been in motion for the last 12 months. Click on this link for more information on this economic upswing.

Following are some of those quality U.S. products are:
Other information can be found here.

Compass Rule:
  • In a service driven information economy, quality products and services will always have its niche.

Sunday, May 22, 2011

The Sign of the Times: The Automated Trend Continues


Past posts focused on the trend of robotic-driven services. We were informed that McDonalds is presently testing their automated service in Europe. (Thank you, Mr. Red Wings for updating us .)

Concurrently the writing end of the news businesses is slowly being automated.


Ruminations from the Compass Desk
Generating profits while maintaining the near cost-free efficiency is the key to succeeding in the information economy. The benefit of this approach is obvious.

Valued customer convenience means a greater rate of operational efficiency and minimum customer service. Full customer service will be only available to the economically affluent. It is the sign of the times

In the United States, minimum manufacturing and near-total automation have become the norm. The emphasis is on social networking and entertainment on demand.

Can you predict the after-effects of this continuous trend of economic dichotomy?

For those who don't know the after-effects of this trend, they should occasionally ask the following two questions:
  • Is their performance valued a minimum of five times greater than the cost of employing them?
  • Can their position be replaced by either an automated machine or someone who possesses the same skill with less economic costs?.

Sunday, April 17, 2011

The Sign of the Times: The Robotic Game

In previous posts, we discussed the on-coming trend of the robotic game. Robotic surgery has been here for awhile Another note on robotic surgery can be found here. Da Vinci Surgery is one of the top experts in this area.

No one can predict everything. However it is important to occasionally assess the Big Tangible Picture
.

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Compass Trend (2): More on Automated Restaurant Service


Coke is referring these machines as the soda fountain of the future. Automation creates convenience, less human labor and possible more profit. Some of these machines have eight-flavor soda fountains, and offers a "wow" 106 brands of soda, from Vanilla Coke to Minute Maid Strawberry Lemonade.

http://www.thecoca-colacompany.com/presscenter/presskit_freestyle.html

Click here to see the machine in action.

Sunday, January 2, 2011

Compass Trend (1): Automated Restaurant Service

Kura, a chain in Japan, relies on small staffs and lots of automation, like sushi-making robots.

As stated in an earlier post, robotic-driven service is the future

Alpha Points:

  • In China and Japan, the automatic food service is incrementally becoming the norm.
  • It has been rumored that the various national fast food vendors are on the verge of building this automated service in the United States soon.
  • This service is specifically designed for serving the masses
Benefits:
  • Lower food costs
  • Lower human labor costs.
  • Customers will be satisfied with lower costs and a greater rate of efficiency
Challenges:
  • People who prefer human contacts.

Drawbacks:
  • There will always be minor machinery breakdowns.
  • Giving the employees a maximum of 24 to 36 hrs work per week, will not create any bond of loyalty.
Efficiency/Flexibility:
  • Companies can hire less people at weekly shifts of 24-36 hrs per week.
  • Statistics have shown that the achievement of high efficiency means higher profits.
Forecasts:
  • When a relevant cost efficiency standard starts in Japan, we expected this service to be the norm in the western economy.
  • In order to secure lower food costs, the masses will accept this practice of automated service.
  • We also expected that the human to human customer service to be catered to those who are willing to pay for it.
  • Effective Service + Customer Satisfaction = Success
  • There is a strong possibility of more unemployment for the lower working class in the urban areas.
  • The divide between the masses and the elite is magnified again
(This post was updated on 01.03.11)

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December 30, 2010
For Sushi Chain, Conveyor Belts Carry Profit
By HIROKO TABUCHI

SAYAMA, Japan — The Kura “revolving sushi” restaurant chain has no Michelin stars, but it has succeeded where many of Japan’s more celebrated eateries fall short: turning a profit in a punishing economy.

Efficiency is paramount at Kura: absent are the traditional sushi chefs and their painstaking attention to detail. In their place are sushi-making robots and an emphasis on efficiency.

Absent, too, are flocks of waiters. They have been largely replaced by conveyors belts that carry sushi to diners and remote managers who monitor Kura’s 262 restaurants from three control centers across Japan. (“We see gaps of over a meter between your sushi plates — please fix,” a manager said recently by telephone to a Kura restaurant 10 miles away.)

Absent, too, are the exorbitant prices of conventional sushi restaurants. At a Kura, a sushi plate goes for 100 yen, or about $1.22.

Such measures are helping Kura stay afloat even though the country’s once-profligate diners have tightened their belts in response to two decades of little economic growth and stagnant wages.

Many other restaurants and dining businesses in Japan have not fared so well. After peaking at 29.7 trillion yen in 1997, the country’s restaurant sector has shrunk almost every year as a weak economy has driven businesses into price wars — or worse, sent them belly-up. In 2009, restaurant revenue, including from fast-food stores, fell 2.3 percent, to 23.9 trillion yen —20 percent below the peak, according to the Foodservice Industry Research Institute, a research firm in Tokyo.

Bankruptcies have been rampant: in 2009, 674 dining businesses with liabilities of over 10 million yen went under, the highest number in the last five years, according to Teikoku Data Bank, a credit research company.

In November 2009, Soho’s Hospitality, the company behind celebrity restaurants like Nobu and Roy’s, filed for bankruptcy. Roy’s is now run by another company, while Nobu’s chef, Nobu Matsuhisa, has opened a new restaurant elsewhere in Tokyo with Robert De Niro.

Along with other low-cost restaurant chains, Kura has bucked the dining-out slump with low prices and a dogged pursuit of efficiency. In the company’s most recent fiscal year, which ended on Oct. 31, net profit jumped 20 percent from the same period a year earlier, to 2.8 billion yen.

In the last two months alone, Kura has added seven stores.

“If you look at the restaurant business, consumers are still holding back because of employment fears and falling incomes, and there’s no signs that will change,” said Kunihiko Tanaka, Kura’s chief executive, who opened Kura’s first sushi restaurant in 1995. “Amid these worsening conditions, our company feels that consumer sentiment matches, or is even a tail wind” to the Kura business, he told shareholders earlier this year.

The travails of Japan’s restaurant industry, and the changes in Japanese dining habits, may be among most visible manifestations of how Japan’s “bubble economy” excesses in the 1980s have given way to frugal times since the bubble burst in 1990.

With wages weak — average annual private sector pay has fallen 12 percent in the last decade, to 4.05 million yen, or about $49,300, in 2009 — the Japanese now spend less on eating out. An average single-person household spent 163,000 yen on dining in 2009, 27 percent less than in 2000, according to detailed budget surveys compiled by the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

In a survey by Citizen Holdings, the watchmaker, of 400 men in their 20s to 50s, the average time spent at cafes and restaurants plunged from 7 hours and 52 minutes a week in 1990 to 2 hours and 25 minutes in 2010.

An aging population is also depressing restaurant sales. More than one-fifth of Japan’s population is already over 65, and surveys indicate that older people tend to eat out less. The population is also shrinking, reducing the restaurants’ potential customer base.

Meanwhile, Japanese companies have cut back sharply on their entertainment expenses, further hurting restaurant sales. Total corporate spending on dining and entertainment has halved from a peak of 9.5 trillion yen in 1991 to 4.8 trillion yen in 2008, according to data from the National Tax Agency.

“The restaurant industry here is so linked to the state of the economy, and that’s why we’re seeing this decline,” said Munenori Hotta, a food service industry expert at Miyagi University in Japan. “In this climate, even top restaurants are having to moderate their prices to keep attracting customers,” he said.

Japan’s dining-out boom had its roots in the 1970s and 1980s, as incomes grew and rural populations flocked to big cities. So-called family restaurants brought cheap, Western-style food to the masses flourished in that era. So did American fast-food chains, which were considered novel at the time. Kentucky Fried Chicken opened its first restaurant here in 1970, followed by McDonald’s in 1971.

At the other end of the price range, a new generation of wealthy Japanese savored imported French wines at lavish restaurants. By 1986, there were 503,088 restaurants across Japan, according to records from the Internal Affairs Ministry. That was nearly double the number from 15 years earlier — and was more restaurants than now operate in the United States, which has more than twice the population of Japan.

After the bubble burst in 1990, new low-cost restaurant chains that offered pizzas for as little as 400 yen, or $4.86, started to spread across Japan, and restaurateurs spoke with alarm of ready-made, convenience-store meals that were siphoning off sales.

In the depths of the slump, in 1995, Mr. Tanaka started a company based on serving quality sushi on the cheap.

His idea of using conveyor belts to offer diners a steady stream of sushi on small plates was not a new one; an Osaka-based entrepreneur invented such a system in the late 1950s. But Mr. Tanaka set out to undercut his rivals with deft automation, an investment in information technology, some creativity and an almost extreme devotion to cost-efficiency. In Japan, where labor costs are high, that meant running his restaurants with as few workers as possible.

Instead of placing supervisors at each restaurant, Kura set up central control centers with video links to the stores. At these centers, a small group of managers watch for everything from wayward tuna slices to outdated posters on restaurant walls.

Each Kura store is also highly automated. Diners use a touch panel to order soup and other side dishes, which are delivered to tables on special express conveyor belts. In the kitchen, a robot busily makes the rice morsels for a server to top with cuts of fish that have been shipped from a central processing plant, where workers are trained to slice tuna and mackerel accurately down to the gram.

Diners are asked to slide finished plates into a tableside bay, where they are automatically counted to calculate the bill, doused in cleaning fluid and flushed back to the kitchen on a stream of water. Matrix codes on the backs of plates keep track of how long a sushi portion has been circulating on conveyor belts; a small robotic arm disposes of any that have been out too long.

Kura spends 10 million yen to fit each new restaurant with the latest automation systems, an investment it says pays off in labor cost savings. In all, just six servers and a minimal kitchen staff can service a restaurant seating 196 people, said a company spokesman, Takeshi Hattori.

“Its not just about efficiency,” Mr. Hattori said. “Diners love it too. For example, women say they like clearing finished plates right away, so others can’t see how much they’ve eaten.”
/// The Big Picture: Effective Service + Customer Satisfaction = Success

Traditional sushi chefs have not fared so well, however. While the overall market for belt-conveyor sushi restaurants jumped 42 percent, to 428 billion yen, in 2009 compared with 2003, higher-end sushi restaurants are on the decline, according to Fuji-Keizai, a market research firm.

“It’s such a bargain at 100 yen,” said Toshiyuki Arai, a delivery company worker dining at a Kura restaurant with his sister and her 3-year-old son. “A real sushi restaurant?” he said. “I hardly go anymore.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/31/business/global/31sushi.htm
#

Robot waiters in China are steeled for service
A restaurant going for a futuristic vibe and satisfied customers opts for robot service staff. Patrons are pleased.

By Ken The,
Associated Press
December 25, 2010


Reporting from Jinan, China
Service with a smile also comes with an electronic voice at the Dalu Robot restaurant, where the hotpot meals are not as famous yet as the staff who never lose their patience and never take tips.

The restaurant, which opened this month in Jinan, in northern Shandong province, is touted as China's first robot hotpot eatery, where robots resembling Star Wars droids circle the room carrying trays of food in a conveyor belt-like system.


More than a dozen robots serve as entertainers, servers, greeters and receptionists. Each robot has a motion sensor that tells it to stop when someone is in its path so customers can reach for dishes they want.

The service industry in China has not always kept up with the country's rapid economic growth, and can be quite basic in some restaurants. Patrons at the Dalu restaurant were full of praise for the robots. ...

"Humans can be temperamental or impatient, but they don't feel tired, they just keep working and moving round and round the restaurant all night," Li said.


"I hope this new concept shows that China is forward-thinking and innovative," Zhang said.
... He also said that he hopes to roll out 30 robots — which cost $6,000 each — in the coming months and eventually develop robots with human-like qualities that serve customers at their tables and can walk up and down the stairs.


/// We are anticipating China to manufacture these robots and other automated service machines with better cost efficiency than the rest of the world.

Associated Press writer Chi-Chi Zhang in Beijing contributed to this report
You can read more about it by clicking this link.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-adfg-china-robot-restaurant-20101225,0,2724934.story



Since last year, we expected to see some of the national brand fast food franchises to start the process of pushing automated service into the urban areas quite soon. We expected the labor costs to be quite low and the number of unemployed food service specialists to rise.Regardless of the anticipated benefits and consequences, this service will be coming to your neighborhood. It is only a matter of time.

Summary
One of the prevailing rules of the information economy is the importance of creating an efficient service that is near cost-effective on the first run.

Another rule is that almost everyone has access to the same core of general information. The driven implementers are those who can make the first move to start the strategic momentum. Proper implementation determines the success.Some entrepreneurs begin by viewing the big tangible picture and then asking the following questions:
  • What are the current state of my targeted market terrain?
  • What are the prevailing variables?
  • How long will it last?
There are more questions, we will touch on those questions later.When the economic state of a terrain changes, the smart people and their technology tools evolve. The costs will slightly drop and the profits rise. The "thrivers" are those who evolve. That is the Compass rule of capitalism.If you are interested in knowing more about our strategic consulting services, drop us a note at www.formspring.me/Compass360CG.

Sunday, December 26, 2010

The Sign of the Times: The Slow Decline of Silicon Valley


"The world under heaven, after a long period of division, tends to unite; after a long period of union, tends to divide. This has been so since antiquity. " - Romance of the Three Kingdoms
.

The Current State of Silicon Valley
The slow economic decay of Silicon Valley is the sign of the times.

The possibilities of California ever returning to the foundation that made Silicon Valley great, are quite low. The economic influences of our global economy have changed the approach of manufacturing anything innovative in California.

We will focused on this interesting matter in a later post.

#

Other Topics: The Trends of the Virtual Economy
Social networking, e-commerce and online-game companies are the hot virtual businesses. ...

In our information economy, there are a ton of amateurish ideas that are being touted. While, the venture capitalists support some of these aspirations and the global consumers are willing to use some of it and sometimes purchase it, one can conclude that there is some value to those ideas.

Sooner or later, this cycle of virtual illusion will terminate. The stronger companies will prevail. It is only a matter of time. ...


A Pragmatic View on the Participants of the Virtual Marketplace
If (or when) the economic state of the virtual players ever declines, will he or she be able to afford the rising cost of food and so forth. Are they willing to eat their ipod and pda for lunch and supper? Will they eat their virtual steak and salad from their face book page? Will the food critics offer lessons on the type of digital wine that they should drink with their virtual food?. ...

Monday, August 23, 2010

The Sign of the Times: The Robots Trend is Here


In a past post, we spotted the vending machines trend as one of many "hot" trends. What we forgot to tell you is that the real money is in the area of robotics. ... Various Global 1000 companies have already positioned themselves to control this niche. The key for the up and coming entrepreneurs is to search deep into the configuration of their terrain and find the various micro terrains that might provide a strategic benefit to a mass of future clients who have cold, hard cash.


Our Compass Assessment of the Robot Trends(abridgment):

Alpha Moment: The implementation of robotics is here.

Benefits:
  • A faster and efficient service that provides low operational costs and a fast delivery cycle while ensuring quality
  • The option of charging a nominal fee for those who require the "human touch" service.
Challenges:
  • Customers who prefer the "human touch" .
Drawbacks:
  • Customers who can't afford the "human touch" services might take their business to somewhere else. The question is whether the number of consumer options for that specific group of clientele are limited to a few companies?
  • The possibility of more unemployed people.

Efficiency/Flexibility:
  • The trend of robotic customer service will be utilized all over the globe and will be quite efficient on the long run.
  • With good artificial intelligence constructs, we expected the robotic technology to be quite solid.

#

What if there's no fix for high unemployment?
By Martin Ford, contributor June 10, 2010: 12:08 PM ET

FORTUNE -- There seems to be little doubt that unemployment is going to remain stubbornly high -- quite possibly for years to come. There's also mounting evidence that a good part of that unemployment is really structural in nature: The skills and capabilities of many experienced workers are simply no longer demanded by the market.

In manufacturing and in many clerical and administrative occupations, computerization and automation have left many formerly middle-class workers with few viable career options. Is it possible that we're creating a future in which jobs are going to be harder and harder to create?

While most economists would probably acknowledge the role that advancing technology has played in the elimination of many middle-skill jobs, few, if any, seem prepared to give any serious thought to where that trend is likely to lead in the future. History shows clearly that the overall capability of information technology accelerates over time -- roughly doubling every two years according to the widely-accepted "Moore's Law." If that trend continues through the next decade -- and there is every reason to expect that it will -- we can anticipate that the computational power available to be focused on automating jobs of all types will increase by a factor of approximately 32. A change of that magnitude isn't something to take lightly. Imagine that your monthly mortgage payment increased by 32 times -- say from $2,000 to $64,000.

As technology continues to accelerate, the number and types of jobs that can be automated is certain to expand dramatically. It's not just factory workers that can be replaced by robots and machines: Rapidly improving software automation and specialized artificial intelligence applications will make knowledge worker and professional occupations requiring college educations and advanced skills increasingly vulnerable.

Consider that this month HP (HPQ, Fortune 500) announced thousands of layoffs while also touting that it's making investments in technology and automation to increase "efficiencies" in the years to come. It is far from the only company to have made such a pronouncement in recent years.

The unemployment pendulum could stop swinging

Yet even economists who think unemployment will be high for five or more years hold onto principled but ill-defended beliefs that unemployment will eventually return to normal levels, just because it always has. But what if this time, something's really different? Technology isn't going to stand still while we wait for the job market to recover. As jobs of all kinds get automated at an increasing pace, it may turn out to be extraordinarily difficult to find our way back to an acceptable unemployment rate.

0:00 /4:02Romer: 'We are adding jobs'
Skeptics will rush to point out that while advancing technology eliminates jobs, it also creates new opportunities and new employment sectors -- so there should be plenty of new jobs to pick up the slack. This process of "creative destruction" is indeed inevitable, but the reality is that innovation often wipes out jobs in more traditional, labor-intensive industries, while creating new ventures that rely heavily on advanced technology and employ only a few people.

Consider Blockbuster (BBI, Fortune 500), which employs a large workforce at thousands of retail stores. Compare it with Netflix (NFLX), with a much smaller number of employees in a just a few highly automated distribution centers where DVDs get sent out and received. That's not all though: The trend is relentless. Netflix customers are already able to stream video directly to their computers or televisions, and there can be little doubt that the Internet is going to be the way movies get delivered in the future. Guess what that means for the workers who are now shipping DVDs through the mail?

Automation is going to hit every industry

As both hardware and software evolve, virtually every employment sector will be increasingly -- and simultaneously -- susceptible to automation. That's a very different story from past technological advances. In the last century, mechanization destroyed millions of jobs in agriculture, and that resulted in a transition to factory-based employment.

More recently, manufacturing automation and globalization were the forces behind our shift to a service-based economy. This time around, we're unlikely to have the luxury of such a sector-by-sector impact on employment: Automation is going to hit hard nearly everywhere.

If structural unemployment increases, there will be very few safe harbors. Today, workers whose skills become obsolete often end up in the jobs of last resort: low-wage service positions at employers like Wal-Mart. The problem is that those jobs won't be there forever -- and certainly not in the numbers required to sustain us.

Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) for example, is one of the biggest proponents of RFID, an inventory tracking technology which reduces the need for human supply-chain management. (It was also once reported to be considering using robots to perform nightly store inventory, a claim the company has denied.) As automation technology becomes more capable and more cost-effective, its eventual introduction into the retail stores, warehouses and offices that now employ tens of millions of workers is inevitable.

Increasing unemployment and falling consumer confidence would very likely result in stagnant or even falling aggregate demand, raising the risk of a deflationary spiral that might be very difficult to reverse. Social safety nets like unemployment insurance would come under unprecedented pressure, and governments would see dramatically increased demand for services even as tax revenues plummeted. Governments would have little choice except to borrow even more -- making the sovereign debt problems that are already tormenting the developed world just the tip of the iceberg.

The solutions to this mess are politically unthinkable by today's standards. Think about it: Jobs are the primary way that purchasing power gets delivered into the hands of consumers. Consumers without incomes can't drive the economy. If jobs at all levels are destined to evaporate in the face of broad-based automation, radical intervention -- and perhaps even a fundamental rewiring of the way the economy works -- may ultimately be our only alternative.

Mainstream economists are, of course, completely oblivious to such a potential scenario. They remain confident in elaborate mathematical models and assumptions that were put together in the last century -- often on the basis of economic data collected decades ago, when information technology was still in its infancy. What if those assumptions turn out to be just plain wrong?

--Martin Ford is a Silicon Valley entrepreneur and author of The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future.


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Our research tells us that robotics will play a relevant role in our global settings. We expected more bottom to lower-middle tier retail businesses to utilize robotics-like devices for various types of customer service.

Side note: In the information technology profession, virtualization software, outsourced labor and a improved project process has currently taken away many middle-tier professional positions from the U.S. job market. We believed that most of those jobs are not returning to the United States

To some people, life can be considered as a zero sum game. While someone wins, another person or a group of people loses.. However, every crisis creates another opportunity. The key is to assess the grand tangible picture with the purpose of identifying opportunities. Then, position oneself by basing their planning and preparation to the strategic assessed situation. Finally, implement the tangible gameplan with the competitive intelligence-driven influence.

Friday, July 23, 2010

The Next Big Trend! (1): The Privatization of Law Enforcement


Here is a political economic problem that will affect many cities.

The privatization of law enforcement might be the solution.




This situation reminded us of the Robocop movie #1 , where cities hired private security companies to prevent crimes.

Due to the financial constraints that many cities (i.e., Oakland, Ca; Baltimore, Md; Detroit, Mi; etc) are facing, one should not be surprised if the privatization of law enforcement solution becomes a reality.