Understanding the Competition #3

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Some of our readers will be predicting the victor of today's Super Bowl game. The assortment of factors that they will be employing to conclude their prediction are quite interesting.

Here is an abridged list of those factors:

• the outcome of the last few games;
• the team colors;
• their favorite uniform numbers;
• the number of All- Pros in each team
• the sentimental reasons;
• the performance quality of the quarterbacks;
• the wins and losses record for each team;
• the current streak of wins;
• the recent two minute scoring drives;
• the number of sacks per game; and
• the number of interceptions per game.

A View From The Compass Desk

The amateurs preferred to look at the big data behind the game. Our preference is to focus on the long data regarding to each team and then summarize some of those data in reference to a set of relevant strategic factors. 

Here is our abridged listing of general strategic factors that we are using to predict the possible winner:

• the injury factor;
• the better defense;
• the balance of the offensive game;
• the quality of competition;
• the balance factor;
• the giveaway and takeaway factor;  (our favorite statistic.)
• the terrain factor;
• the ability to score fast;
• the team's speed to adjust;
• the red zone efficiency factor;
• the momentum of winning over superior competition; and 
• the quarterback ability to adjust to an extreme pass rush.

Do your homework! 

Focus your attention on understanding who has the better strategic power in terms of their competitive disposition, their capitalization of opportunities, their effectiveness of timed execution, their display of illusions and reality. Identify the various categories of mismatches (i.e, offense vs. defense, QB vs. MLB and FS, the offensive line vs. the defensive line, etc.) and you might discover who could be the winner before the game begins.

By analyzing the connectivity behind the various specific match-ups in certain situations and the possibilities in reference to the rate of change, the cause and effect and the probable momentum, one can predict the possible outcome.

Analyzing the ranking of key performance metrics of each team is the first step. Identifying the configuration of their strengths and weaknesses and what are their tendencies in certain tactical situations are what counts

Following is an abridged listing of those situations: 

• The Niners could start their offensive game by employing various run plays against the Ravens "questionable" run defense while the Ravens will begin their attack by going long and deep with a two-three receivers alignment against the Niners "Bend Don't Break" Defense.   We expected the Niners to counter their nickel and dime defense.
• The Ravens attempting an up-tempo no huddle approach against the Niners 
• The Niners spreading the Ravens defense and then run short range pass plays and trap plays with the quick-footed LaMichael James and the speedy Vernon Davis against the slower Ray Lewis and non-agile Bernard Pollard.
• The Ravens countering with pass plays with Ray Rice against the Niner's "Bend and Don't Break" defense
• The Niners will successfully running an assortment of new plays (variations from their previous plays).  
• The Ravens running an assortment of disguised blitzes and man to man coverage  against the Niner's offense.
• The Niners running a series of flood plays that deceptively manipulates a targeted player into making a bad decision. 
• The Ravens attempting the "Alley Opps" pass plays with Anquan Bolden  and the deep pass plays with Torrey Smith against the Niner's cornerbacks especially early in the game.
• The Niners defense forcing the Ravens QB to run out of pocket with a four to five man rush, causing his passes to be intercepted.

Subjugating the Competitor's Foundation

In the college and professional sports, almost each everyone know the basic tendencies of their future competitors. 

To prevent the competitors from knowing one's habits, the Niners possesses one of the largest offensive playbook in the NFL. The late Bill Walsh and his many prodigies are known to possess a very large playbook.  The current Niners braintrust have learned from the Virtual Walsh.

Beside running their myriad of jumbo packages and their wham plays, we expected the Niners to isolate the TE on an one on one isolation against the slow linebackers in some pass situations.  the Niners could also run the pitch option and the pass action pass from their pistol formation against the older and slower Ravens defense. 

Targeting the Weak Points

Good competitive strategists usually target some of their "wear and tear" plays on the inspirational leader/chief decision makers.  The psychological reasoning is quite obvious. We expected the Niners to target some "spread (zone) and isolate" a fast  player onto Ray Lewis while the Ravens will go deep and long against the Niners "Bend Don't Break" Defense.

Food for Thought 

• The turf of the dome usually favors the faster team. Based on the assessed data, which team is favored?
• What is the possibility of the Niners defense knocking out the Ravens receivers?
• Based on the last seven games, how effective is the Raven's run defense?
• The team that takes the lead into the fourth quarter, will they effectively be able to "ground and pound" their opponent to a state of "tap or snap"?
• The team that is running behind, will they be able to effectively "spread and shred" their competitor's prevent defense?

Big Tangible Picture

We believed that both coaches have a deep understanding of the tendencies of each other so well that they might play it conservatively in the beginning of the game. 

During the game, many of the armchair quarterbacks will be expecting Coach Jim Harbaugh (the Niners head coach) and Coach Greg Roman  (the Niners offensive coordinator) will be looking for poor defensive responses on certain plays while creating new opportunities through the various schemes of mismatching.  Vic Fangio (the Niners defensive coordinator) will attempt to identifying the offensive play-calling tendencies of Coach Caldwell (the Ravens offensive coordinator)

We expected that Coach John Harbaugh (the Ravens head coach) to strategically change the tempo of their game whenever the Ravens are in trouble.


Based on history, we also expected that Coach Roman  is going to implement his arsenal of unorthodox plays to unnerve the competition during the early stage of the game. 

Side note:  Unorthodox stratagems (trick plays) sometimes do not matter in a near-predictable setting if one's team has the superior (and experienced) manpower who could adjust to any unique changes.  The Niners has a tactical tendency of using unique formations, multi-personnel packages, shifts and motions to deceive their competition while the Ravens has the habit of executing play action passes.  ... We will discuss the rules of implementing unorthodox stratagems and the approach for playing the contrarian card in a future post.


Point, Counterpoint and Counter, Counterpoint
Regardless that the Niners having more offensive weapons and more speed, the Ravens team has the emotional reason and the spiritual leader.  How would each team subvert the emotional foundation of the other?

Here are the clues:
"Concentrate every effort on subduing its heart and mind." -Military Methods 33

"The expert in using the military has three basic strategies which he applies: the best strategy is to attack the enemy's reliance upon acuteness of mind; the second is to attack the enemy's claim that he is waging a just war; and the last is to attack the enemy's battle position (shi).   -Sun Bin's The Art of Warfare , Chapter 34 (Fragments),  

Summary

Due to the settings of the competitive terrain and the comprehension of both teams tendencies by both coaches, some of us are thinking that the total score of this game is going to be one or three points within the over/under number of 47 points.

Offense thrills the masses.  But it is the defense that wins the championship.

The Questions of the Day

So, what strategic and tactical factors have you been using to assess your company and your competition?
# # # 

Executing the Right Stuff

"90% of strategies fail due to poor execution." -  Harvard Business School

Some believed that execution begins by planning and preparation.  ... Read the previous post for a higher idea.   In an efficient economy, staying focused while avoiding contentment is one of the greatest challenge for most individuals.

Understanding the Competition (2)

wikimedia.org

Some of the Super Bowl viewers are quietly predicting the victor of today's game. Some of the factors that were being used to make their prediction are quite interesting.

Here is an abridged list of those factors:

• the team colors;
• the favorite uniform numbers;
• the sentimental reasons;
• the quality of quarterbacks;
• the wins and losses record for each team;
• the current streak of wins;
• the recent two minute scoring drives;
• the number of sacks per game; and
• the number of interceptions per game.

There is no home field advantage.

A Mini Assessment From the Compass Desk

Here is our abridged listing of general strategic factors that we are using to predict the possible winner:

• the injury factor;
• the better defense;
• the balance of the offensive game;
• the quality of competition;
• the giveaway and takeaway factor; and
• the momentum of winning over superior competition.

Do your homework. Focus your attention on understanding who has the better strategic power in terms of their competitive disposition, their capitalization of opportunities, their effectiveness of timed execution, their display of illusions and reality. Identify the various categories of mismatches (i.e, offense vs. defense, QB vs. MLB and FS, the offensive line vs. the defensive line, etc.) and you might discover who could be the winner before the game begins.

Then, take the data and implement the Compass process. ... It is that simple. Or is it?

Question of the Day

What strategic and tactical factors have you used to assess your company and your competition?

Big Tangible Picture

We believed that both coaches have a deep understanding of the tendencies of each other so well that they might play it conservatively in the beginning of the game. Based on history, I expected that Coach Belichick is going to implement his arsenal of unorthodox plays to unnerve his competition during the early stage of the game. He and Brady will be looking for poor defensive responses while creating new opportunities through the various schemes of mismatching.

Unorthodox stratagems (trick plays) sometimes do not matter in a near-predictable setting if one's team has the superior (and experienced) manpower who could adjust to any unique changes.

# note: We will talk about the rules of implementing unorthodox stratagems and playing the contrarian card in a future post.

If the New England Patriots score on the first two drives with their no huddle offense and if the NY Giants are able to responded to it, one usually expected the game to go on a high scoring momentum at least for the first half of the game. ... We would not be surprised to see the Giants play the no-huddle offense option since the Patriots "bend but don't break" defense is technically questionable. The injury factor plays a significant role within the Patriots defense and the Patriots offense. ... Do not be surprised if the Patriots run more blitz packages in certain defense situations.

Summary

Due to the settings of the competitive terrain and the comprehension of both teams tendencies by both coaches, some of us think that the total score of this game is going to be under the line of 54 points.

What-If Situations

If the Patriots secured a minimum of a 10-point lead (early in the game), the Patriots will usually run up the score. ... Lets presumed that the game becomes a shootout or a possible slaughter, some of us are choosing the NYG to win.

If the game becomes very close, the New England Patriots team has a good chance of winning. ...

Another situation is the game becomes a shootout and goes overtime, there is a chance that the total score of the game would go over the line of 54 points.

* Side note: When assessing and positioning through planning, do you practice the art and the process of scenario modeling?

What is your call? ... (The answer is not in your copy of the Art of War.)

# update at 14:38 hr pst

The Importance of Preparation (2)

The preference of the masses is to react, not to anticipate. They would rather view their situations while disregarding the rippling effects of the global influences. Their general strategic approach is based on their intent and their other priorities. Some has a tendency of forcing their will into the situation, thinking that they can "will" a win. They occasionally utilized the wrong rules for the inappropriate situation.

"The will to prepare is greater than the will to win." - Bobby Knight

In summary, the true professional understands that the strategy is a process not a byproduct. He knows that the proper execution of the process that supports his principles, usually prevail at the end of the venture.

Understanding the Competition

Bill Belichick is one of the best "strategic" coaches.  He knows how to identify a competitor's strategic deficit  and their various tactical weaknesses.

In the past, he has told the news media that he was a reader of the Sunzi's Art of War (AoW) classic. (Whether the trivia can help him win a relevant game is a different story.)

By being well-prepared, Belichick rarely errs in his game decisions. He always plays the percentages. Occasionally, he calls a gadget play in order to surprise his opponent.

Strategically, the superior strategist always believed that the success of the play is usually based on the execution not the decision.

One similar Art of War exploit is his indirect involvement of the 2007's Spygate event.

This past Sunday, he discovered the NY Jets was their opponent for today's game. The press asked him about his view on the Jets.

Following is an excerpt of his Sunday news conference:

Q: What stands out to you as different about the Jets from what you saw when you played them Dec. 6?

BB: They’re pretty much the same team. Obviously, they didn’t have a good night that night. But, they do a good job running the ball. They’ve got big play receivers and tight ends. They do what they do on defense – a lot of man coverage and they’re pretty physical on the front line. [They're] very good in the kicking game. Good return game – that was a big play for them last night on the kickoff return after the Indianapolis field goal. They’re a solid team. Their record reflects that. I don’t think they’re a whole lot different than really what they’ve been all year. They do a lot of things well.

Q: You mentioned familiarity. Is it hard for teams at this time of the year to change anything or does the familiarity really come into play?

BB: You’ve had 16, 17 games, whatever it is, not counting preseason and another 100 and some practices, so I think everybody probably has got a lot of options in their playbook or in their system. It’s a question of what you want to do, what you feel like is best to choose from and the inflections that you have – how you match up and how you want to play against the team that you’re up against. I’m sure they have a lot of options at this point.

Q: When a team is coming off that kind of emotion and experience in that game and you all have had the bye week, is there any concern about them being able to take that momentum into this week having had that game while you all had the bye?

BB: I think the most important thing is the week of preparation and how the teams prepare on Sunday. I think that’s what it really comes down to. I don’t think what happened last week or in some game in December or some game in September or some game in October, I don’t think that’s going to have too much bearing on it. I think what happens between now and kickoff and how the teams perform once the game starts, I think that’s what will decide the winner.

Q: Have you seen a growth for Mark Sanchez from the beginning part of the season through the middle to where he was last night and how he’s able to be effective?

BB: I thought he did a good job last night. [He] made some clutch plays that they needed to make there at the end of the game. He’s obviously a good quarterback; he’s led them to the playoffs two years in a row.

Q: Last week, Rex Ryan said he thinks that you help Tom Brady with studying and game preparation more than what Peyton Manning gets in Indianapolis. What do you think about that statement?

BB: I really don’t think a whole lot about stuff like that. I just try to coach our team. I think you have to ask Rex or somebody else about that, whoever said it, whatever the context was, I don’t know. I’m worried about getting our team ready.

/// As usual, he preferred to talk about his own team rather than the opponent.

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/10/belichick-talks-about-facing-jets/

Some of our clients have asked us about how do we think Bill Belichick assessed this week's competition.

Our usual response was: "At this moment of the competition, each principal has a video library of each and every play. They almost know what are the usual tendencies. The focal point is to  to know and anticipate the decision making process for the current circumstance. ..."

Defining the Strategic Power (Shi)

Strategic Power (Shi) is an advantageous circumstance that an AoW strategist uses against their opposition. It begins by knowing the opposition in terms of their strategic foundation.

Understanding the Tactical Imbalance of Strategic Power (Quan)

Step 1: Know the injury factor

The objective of each football strategist is to know who is injured (on both sides) and what is the quality of each injury. The quantity of injuries occasionally determines the quality and quantity of the strategic options.

Step 2: Know the decision habits of the play callers and the players

Another key point is to know the tendencies of the opposing play caller and the positional players in terms of various decision making scenarios (strategic situations, various tactical situations, adjustments etc.) ...

Step 3: Know the state of the terrain and the performance state of your competitors at the day of the competition.
By combining data from each of the earlier steps, one begins to understand who has the superior strategic power.

In terms of the tactical side of the strategic game, the successful strategist usually focuses on the deployment of formations and the relative strength of each competitor in each tactical situation.  During the game, he is searching for a slew of situational matchups that would give his team the advantage. 

This is how the "real" professionals play the strategy game. ... It is this simple. ...

Theoretically, one gets the big tangible picture by filtering the reality and the illusions of the competition and the terrain. Then he or she can exploit the weaknesses and strengths of the overall situation.

Whether Belichick's team wins, we will not find out until Sunday evening.

An update on 01.16.11

The New York Jets toppled The New England Patriots, 28-21. Regardless of the injuries and the poor execution, the outcome is what counts.

Ruminations from the Compass Desk

Implementing the AoW principles as a strategic direction, can be challenging for some people. Choosing the right tactics and being able to execute them on time and on target are some of the other difficult challenges that a game strategist usually encounters.

In summary, the proper execution of the process is what usually enables the competitor prevails .
#

It is the Execution of the Process That Usually Prevails

Source: Wikipedia.org

Click here here to see the sign that was posted in front of the University of Oregon's football team locker room this past Monday.

We have seen many idealists and motivation speakers (preachers) who offered irrelevant advice to people by throwing quotes and general principles during their waking moment. They figured that it will generate inspiration and creativity. Once the positive energy starts, everything will be ok. These so-called idealists also believed that simple strategic principles (laced with some fairy tale stories) are always effective in our complex world. It is easy for them to talk the game especially when they rarely have their skin vested in any risky venture. Whenever there is success, these preachers take credit for it. However, it is usually their invisible project team who grinds through the details in a semi-dark back room.

We believe that knowing the general principles, the specific principles and a relevant process is the first step. Then applying it properly is the key to competitive success

In real life, most people are not that fortunate. They do not have the right support team, the resources, the right drive and/or the right strategic process to achieve the next economic level.. In most cases, they have no realization of the extremity behind the risk. After one or two setbacks, these amateurs surrender to the inevitable and return to their own settings, realizing that it was not meant to be.

In the mind of these idealistic preachers believed that a list of principles and their faith in their spirit will carry them to the "Promise Land." Yeah, sure. ...

A checklist of quotes or principles only works in a predictable setting. In most cases, it usually fails when the naive amateurs have no tangible comprehension of the risk and the uncertainty that are involved with the situation. They could be consciously unpredictable in how they deal with certain situations and possess no experience of strategic achievements or an emotional support system to fall back on. We will touch the depthness of that specific topic at a later post.

Once the illusion of hypes and faded hopes vanishes, one sees that the successful people are those who knows how to implement and execute . These implementers are usually willing to grind out the process of doing it regardless of the predictability state. Because they understand the tangibility of their goal, the strategic settings that support it and the quality of the possibility.

Compass Execution

In our case, we have always believed in the act of knowing the big tangible picture before making a strategic move. It starts by collecting evidence-driven statistics and the relevant facts. We also believe in the proper execution of a results-driven process. What do you believe in?

"90% of strategies fail due to poor execution. ..." - Harvard Business School research

We also believed that the origin of most execution problems begins with the poor understanding of the following three points:

• the "assessment of one's competitive terrain (marketplace)";
• the "positioning of oneself through the planning and preparation" process by choosing the right strategic methodology and the people who can operate within it; and
• the "influencing of the terrain and the competition" within it by properly executing the strategic process.

Regardless of the economics and logistics, the competitor cannot properly plan and execute when he or she does not understand themselves, their market terrain and beyond. What do you think?

Rumination from the Compass Desk

In summary, one has to know the grand questions before concluding with the tangible answer. It begins by knowing the big tangible picture. So, do you know if your big picture connects with the big tangible picture of your settings.

For what it is worth, Auburn defeated Oregon 22 to 19 for the BCS title this past Monday. The presumption is that the Oregon football team's application of the Art of War principles failed. The lesson is that the proper execution of the process that supports one's principles, usually prevails at the end of the game.

Compass Rule
Principles-supported process with properly planned protocols  usually raises the probability of winning.