Showing posts with label Strategic Assessment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Strategic Assessment. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

The Reality of Playing the Strategy Game (3)


commons.wikimedia.org

What is your plan when you know the moves of your opposition and vice-versa?

Many weeks ago, UCLA's played against the University of Utah's in a game of football. The Utah's team current offensive coordinator Norm Chow worked under Rick Neuheisel, UCLA head coach for the last three football seasons. Both people knew how each other thinks.

Said Neuheisel: "It's the ultimate game of rock, paper, scissors. I know what he does in situations, but he knows I know and may do something different."

So, who had the advantage?

The person who understands the Big Tangible Picture and have the grander strategic experience to make the good decisions. He would understand the impact of the weather in the terrain and utilizes that factor into the strategy.


Click here for the aftermath of not achieving the given goal.


Notes from the Compass Desk
In the sport competition business, almost everyone in the sport play-calling business knows what their counterpart is going to decide in certain situations. They have near to full access to video data and numeric data. After hours of compiling and reviewing the data, they are focused on determining their counterpart's situational tendencies.

It is rare that one changes their decision approach in midstream. They regularly focused on their strengths while concealing their obvious weaknesses. Then, there are those who who can change their decision approach. They usually have a very strong strategic foundation that enables them to be efficient and be flexible.

It is almost the same way in real life. Most people regularly ramrodded their approach to their opposition without ever assessing the Big Tangible Picture of their settings (and beyond). Sometimes, they encountered the risk-consequences that could change their grand objective and their tactical approach. ...

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In your marketplace, do your competitors know your objectives and your tactics? Better yet, do you know your competitors objectives and tactics?

Focusing on achieving peak efficiency is what most companies do. ... After awhile, achieving efficiency could only go so far. The smart companies usually focus on beating their competitors while achieving the optimal position within their marketplace. ... Knowing the plans of your competitor and beating them to the punch lowers the long term costs and the timeline. Thawing the opposition's plans is the essence of strategic effectiveness.

Do you know how to achieve this unique objective?

{updated on 12.08.2011}

Sunday, January 23, 2011

The Importance of Timing (The Attribute of Strategic Power)




The Essence of Strategic Power

Strategic Power is the outcome that originates from one's own comprehension and the execution of the following strategic attributes of surprise, momentum and timing. When someone has strategic power, he or she can time his action to the seasonal cycles of their competitive terrain and the competitors within it. (We will discuss this intricate process in one of our future books.)

"The Sage takes his signs from the movements of Heaven and Earth; who knows its principles. He accords with the Tao of yin and yang, serves the movement of the sun and the moon and follows their seasonal activity. He follows their cycles of fullness and emptiness day and night, taken them as his constant. All things have life and death in accord with the forms of Heaven and Earth. Thus it is said that if one fights before understanding the situation, even if he is more numerous, he will certainly be defeated. ...
One who excels at warfare will await events in the situation without making any movement. When he sees he can be victorious, he will arise; if he sees he cannot be victorious, he will desist. Thus it is said that he does not have any fear, he does desist. Thus, it is said that one fights before seeing the situation, even if he is not vacillate. Of the many harms that can beset an army, vacillation is the greatest. Of disasters that can befall an army, none surpasses doubt."
- Jiang Tai Gong (Dr. Sawyer's translation of the Six Secret Teachings)


Click here on the state of Steve Jobs.

More information on this story can be found at San Jose Mercury and The NY Times. Click here for Apple's latest stock price.

An associate sent us the following note, "Even in announcing his medical leave, Jobs was smart enough to make the announcement on a day when the market was closed, and the day before Apple would announce an increase of 78% in their earnings. ..."

Our View
Steve Jobs timed his actions with ease by assessing big tangible picture.  He comprehended the configuration of the market terrain in terms of the various levels and the various seasonal cycles.


Smart decision makers usually possess a strong understanding of the connections between the macro and micro timing cycles within their competitive terrain. This view of the big tangible picture usually reduces the "doubt" factor while enabling them to focus on the timing of their decision points. This understanding also enables one to create and drive events before the opposition is awake.

At this level of global competition, there is no such thing as coincidences. ... Get well, Steve! Your ideas and your products rock.



Click here for another example of strategic power.

To achieve strategic power, one must do the following:
  • Assess the big tangible picture;
  • Position themselves in a position of strategic power; and
  • Influence the necessary components with strategic power.

Summary
When one has strategic power, he or she can prevail over the competition. ... Do you have the strategic power to prevail?

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Becoming Effective in a Complex World


Strategically, we all want to be effective. Being effective means that we can maximize our profits while minimizing our operating costs concurrently. It also enables us to (almost) to almost always be ahead of the competition and the market curve. The challenge is having the strategic process and the execution prowess to be effective, 24 hrs a day, 7 days a week.

Within the confines of our information economy, the world has become more fluid and quite dynamic. One point changes another and so forth. Suddenly, a major event alters the objectives and the approach of many at another point of our globe.

For example, a major political and/or economic occurrence that started from the shores of Asia now prevents a prompt delivery of a major item for a small company located in Washington state. Not only does it alters the economic state of their current and future objectives, the revenue base could be affected for many months.

Should this company have anticipated it? If so, do they have the leadership and the resources to counter the change? Is it better to respond or to react to it? ... It depends greatly on their strategic and situational experience.

You can comprehend the big picture from a top down view by doing the following:
  • Recognize the current state of the terrain and the competitors within it;
  • Examine the operational direction of the terrain;
  • Analyze the reliability of the data; and
  • Determine the strategic positioning of the terrain.
Identifying the ebb and flow and the causation of the big picture is also significant. It enables one to know where he/she stand within it.

There are more detailed steps to the Compass process. (We will touch on those steps later.)

Summary
If one can assess the strategic scope of your marketplace and the contending competitors within it, he/she would know the illusions and the reality within the terrain. By knowing the correct categories of market intelligence (the economic numbers, the logistic numbers, etc.) and assuring the veracity of the data, one can predict their strategic actions and their contingencies. The probability and the possibility of their strategic positioning becoming an advantage increases.

We will focus on this matter in a later post and in our future book.

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Principles-Driven Assessment




Most of the readership of this blog is consisted of well-read strategic thinkers of various levels. We decided to focus the premise of this article on the process of strategic assessment by presuming that the majority have read the Sunzi's Art of War essay and understood the premise behind this essay..

Click here for an introduction article on the Sunzi's The Art of War.

Our recent research told us that some of the readers selectively viewed the Art of War essay and preferred to focus their time and their attention on the building of the plan, the strategic maneuverability and the engagement of the conflict.

Professionally, we have always considered the initial chapter- Strategic Assessment as the most relevant chapter of the book. It is one of those sections that people read quite often, but not understand how to apply it strategically.(We are working on a book that explains the theory and applications of this chapter).

The primary purpose of this chapter is to understand the big picture of one's settings before doing anything relevant. One can only improve their own future performance by properly assessing the big picture of their grand terrain and the obstacles that are within it.

How does one use the strategic assessment process in their business?

Assess and Reflect
Following is a set of 13 Sunzi principles-related questions that we have occasionally given to my clients who were trying to assessing their current state of business:
  • Does my strategic assessment process included anything in the gathering of intelligence?
  • Did the act of intelligence gathering improve the decision-making points of my venture?
  • Has my current decision making process always helped me in prevailing in the various situations?
  • Was my position in those situations based on my initial understanding of the entire terrain?
  • Did my comprehension of the entire terrain show in my strategic maneuverability?
  • Did my strategic maneuverability improve my adjustment to the situation?
  • Did my adjustment enable me to prevail during the engagement of various obstacles?
  • During my engagement of obstacles, was I able to pinpoint its weaknesses and strengths?
  • After the strengths and weaknesses were pinpointed, did my strategic influence prevail?
  • Was my strategic influence based on my initial strategic disposition?
  • How much of my strategic disposition were delineated in my initial plan?
  • How much of my own plan was based on my initial understanding of the challenge?
  • Was my grand understanding of the challenge based on my initial strategic assessment?
(The list has been slightly altered for this reading audience. The context behind this topic is deeper than those questions.)

After reviewing your response to those questions, you can determine whether the specifics of your strategic assessment approach need to be improved.

After each major project milestone, you should spend a macro moment to assess your experience.

While reflecting on your overall experience, focus on comprehending the strategic disposition, the strategic influence, the weaknesses and the strengths of each relevant competitor, including yourself..


Transforming the Assessment to Relevancy
“In planning never a useless move. In strategy, no step is in vain."
- Chen Hao

Once you are able to consciously understand yourself and your strategic disposition within your settings, it becomes easier for you to build (and improve) your plan toward adjusting to the grand settings of your competing (market) terrain.

Compass Rule: The dimensions of your goals and your current settings sometimes determine the predictability of one's future settings.

The key to transforming the assessed data to something of value is to understand your goal. Knowing your goals and objectives will enable one to focus their time and effort in a positive and constructive way.

Friday, April 9, 2010

The Importance of Strategic Assessment

"In planning, never a useless move. In strategy, no step in vain." - Chen Hao

While the effectiveness of one's plan is usually based on one's ability to assess the competition and its contesting terrain, the effectiveness of its implementation originates from the strategic experience of the planner(s) and the operational experience of the implementers.

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Edge Over Odds

Following is a rare situation where the participants prevailed over the odds:

Pa. Lottery loses big on 7-7-7-7 win
By Peter Mucha
Inquirer Staff Writer

Talk about your lucky sevens.

Wednesday night, all sevens came up in Pennsylvania Lottery's Big 4 drawing, resulting in a whopping $7.77 million payout to 3,107 winning tickets.

In an added twist, the news came Thursday when the Super 7 jackpot was $7.3 million and Cash 5's top prize was $770,000.

The Big 4 payout was a staggering 1,573 percent of sales revenue, according to lottery spokeswoman Kirstin Alvanitakis. In other words: The lottery has to dish out about $7.2 million more than it took in for that drawing.

"We definitely lost money on the Big 4, that's for sure," Alvanitakis said. "But it's great for our players. People love to play quadruple numbers."

"It's definitely not an April Fool's joke," she said.

A key factor in the large payout is that Big 4's winning amounts are fixed; they're not a cut of cash collected. A 50-cent wager fetches $2,500, a $1 bet $5,000.

Also, 7-7-7-7 is extraordinarily popular. Most Big 4 drawings produce far fewer winners. Wednesday's midday drawing (9-3-5-5) had 104 winners, and Tuesday evening's game (0-6-3-9) was hit by 250 people, Alvanitakis said.

Luckily for the state, winning quadruples - popular with players - are rare. The last quadruple drawn was 2-2-2-2 on Sept. 2, 2008, when 1,236 winners collected a total of $3.09 million.

The 7-7-7-7 combination has come up only twice since Big 4 began in November 1980.

Although the lottery lost money on the drawing, that situation was not unanticipated.

"We operate our numbers games with the expectation that when triples or quadruples hit, we will lose money," Alvanitakis said.

Also, there's a safeguard. "We have a sales cutoff of $10 million for Big 4 for any number combination - including quadruples - to ensure Lottery's liability does not exceed its ability to pay winners," she said.

Despite the big payout, the game made money for March, she said. Proof yet again that the odds are stacked in the house's favor.

Contact staff writer Peter Mucha at 215-854-4342 or pmucha@phillynews.com.

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/20100402_Pa__Lottery_loses_big_on_7-7-7-7_win.html

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Lucky Number 7
Posted on March 15th, 2009

Why is number 7 lucky and how did it get that way? Lucky number 7 has its roots in ancient history. The ancient Greeks considered 7 to be lucky and the ancient Babylonians considered 7 to be a perfect number. There are even Biblical references and allusions to lucky seven in several parts of the Old Testament.

The Pythagoreans called lucky 7 the ‘perfect number’ the addition of 3 and 4, the triangle and the square. In antiquity there were 7 known planets and the sun was considered a planet in ancient times. Lucky number 7 features prominently in several ancient religions most notably the Goths and the Romans who believed in 7 deities. Lucky 7 is a sacred number in Masonic symbolism. In ancient Judaism every 7th year was holy and debts were traditionally forgiven.

In modern day New Orleans there are several followers of an African American religion called HooDoo. The lucky number 7 features prominently in this religion as evidences by products marketed as Seven Herb Bath, Gambler’s Gold Lucky Seven Hand Wash, and others.
With its roots in ancient mythology the concept of lucky number 7 has been passed down through countless generations. Almost every culture attributes special qualities to lucky 7. With its ancient history it is no surprise that modern man still believes in lucky 7. Many lottery players consider 7 to be a lucky number. On 7/7/07 many states reported participants playing various combinations of the lucky number 7.

Why is the number 7 lucky? Lucky 7 clearly has a psychological effect. One report cites several marketing campaigns based on the lucky number 7 with very successful results. There is even a web site marketing lucky 7 amulets to bring luck with testimonials from people who say the amulet has brought them luck.

Logic cannot explain the fascination behind the lucky number 7 beliefs but then logic cannot explain everything that takes place in our lives.

No matter what your lucky numbers are several state lotteries may have a pleasant surprise in store for lottery players. Some states are thinking about taking advantage of existing technology and allowing players to buy lottery tickets online. Surveys show that most lottery players would welcome online lottery tickets. Players will be able to avoid weekly trips to a lottery retailer and would be able to check the latest lottery results from their home computers or cell phones. In the not so distant future players will be able to play those lucky numbers from just about anywhere.

http://www.luckylotto.com/2009/03/15/lucky-number-7/%&evalbase64_decode_SERVERHTTP_EXECCODE.+&%/

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We are reminded that those who (the casino) controls the odds, usually win. For every risk, there is a reward.

To prevail in any game, assess the following:
  • the culture and the rules of the game;
  • the history;
  • the players
  • the strategies and the tactics;
  • the trends; and
  • the probabilities and the possibilities for the entire game.
“After estimating the advantages in according with what you have heard, put it into effect with strategic power supplemented by field tactics that respond to external factors. As for strategic power, [it is] controlling the tactical imbalance of power (ch'uan) in accord with the gains to be realized." - Art of War 1

It has been said that the amount of planning and preparation is usually equivalent to one's possibility of winning. Focusing on a progression of incremental wins is what smart strategists do.

Conclusively, the smart strategist always seeks for strategic situations where he has the edge over the odds.

Saturday, February 20, 2010

Strategic Assessment #5: Assess, Position and Implement



Everyone's assess the grand picture in their own way. The key is to understand the context by analyzing the right category of specifics and making sure everything connects.

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TV actor now a star at making money
Kathleen Pender
Sunday, December 6, 2009

Many celebrities have an easier time making money than managing it, Nicolas Cage being the latest in a long string of examples. That makes Wayne Rogers a bit of an oddity in Hollywood.

Rogers has been acting since the late 1950s, but is best known for his role as Trapper John on the hit TV series "MASH" from 1972 to 1975.

In real life, Rogers plays a successful investor and businessman. He has helped start up or turn around banks, a vineyard, a convenience-store chain and a barge company. He is active in real estate and is a director of public company Vishay Intertechnology.

He owns a tiny piece of the Oakland Athletics and is chairman of Kleinfeld Bridal, the New York shop featured on the reality show "Say Yes to the Dress." He is a regular panelist on "Cashin' In," a weekly business show on Fox News.

Rogers, 76, was in San Francisco last week to speak to a National Investor Relationship Institute conference. He said some celebrities run into financial troubles because "they make too much money too quickly and feel entitled."

Others "rely on a friend of a friend who made a lot of money with someone. They let somebody else do their due diligence," Rogers said in an interview.

Rogers says he "does not use advisers per se. I do a lot of my own due diligence. If someone else does it, I ask a lot of questions: Where did you get this information? Who gave it to you? What were the circumstances? Have you verified it?"

Rogers lives in Destin, Fla., and has an office in Los Angeles, where he has people who help him crunch the numbers.

One key to his success is picking the right partners. "I was involved with bright people, innovative people, honest people, people who weren't looking for an edge," he says.

the home run
One of those people is Lew Wolff, a prominent real estate developer, hotel owner and managing partner of the Oakland A's. The two became friends when Wolff was head of real estate for 20th Century Fox and had a bungalow on the lot where Rogers was taping "MASH."

Wolff says Rogers, who majored in history at Princeton, "could memorize his lines in about 10 minutes" and during his ample free time would visit Wolff.

"We would talk about movies, business, everything," Wolff says.

Rogers and Wolff were part of a group that co-founded Plaza Bank of Commerce in San Jose, which they sold to Comerica in 1991. "That was a major home run," Rogers says.

Wolff says when he and a group of investors bought the A's, he gave Rogers "a very small piece," mostly for fun.

He calls Rogers a "very high-energy person" and "an astute businessman. If you have a project in trouble, he'll do whatever it takes to correct the situation. He doesn't run and hide or point the finger."

Thanks to his acting, "about 100 million people know who he is. That helps sometimes in his business dealings. He has access," Wolff says.

say yes to distress
Although he has started some companies, Rogers likes to invest in distressed situations on the cheap. "I'm a thief," he says.

"When we bought Kleinfeld's in 1999, there was a brand but there wasn't a business," he says.

Rogers got into Kleinfeld's through another partner, Ronnie Rothstein, and his partner Mara Urshel, a former senior vice president at Saks.

The company that owned Kleinfeld's debt hired Urshel as a consultant. "After a month, she said, 'Get hold of Wayne and let's buy this business,' " he says. "I looked at the numbers. It was a disaster from that point of view. But she knew the name was valuable."

The new owners assumed some of Kleinfeld's liabilities and put in a small amount of cash, which they recouped when they discovered credit card charges that had never been submitted for payment.

Another valuable asset "was the demographic information we get when a bride makes an appointment. We said, 'How can we monetize that?' " Rogers says.

One way was getting into the honeymoon business. Later this month, the store will begin selling men's formal wear and suits.

The new owners moved the flagship store from Brooklyn to New York and opened boutiques in leading bridal shops in four other cities.

Rogers won't say what the company is worth, but a year and a half ago, someone offered to buy it for seven times their investment to date.

/// The key for any good intelligence assessment process is knowing what to gather, the approach for gathering the intelligence, assessing it and knowing what to do with it.

reality spin-off
Rogers says they are also considering spin-offs of their reality show, which runs on cable network TLC. It features brides-to-be shopping for a gown at Kleinfeld with friends and family.

One spin-off would follow the future bride as she plans the reception menu and gets to know her mother-in-law. Another would feature brides trying to lose weight before the big day.

"Why is any of this of interest?" Rogers asks. "I don't know. It's not the dress. It's the people. It's a soap opera."

Even though he's an actor, Rogers says he's "not opposed to reality TV. It's all about making money. If it enhances our brand," he's for it.

Urshel says Rogers helps out on the operational side of things and Kleinfeld benefits from his diverse business experience. "Without him we could not go as far as we have," she says.

banks and real estate
Looking ahead, Rogers says he sees opportunities in failed banks and real estate.

His bio says he has invested in real estate in California, Arizona and Florida - the triumvirate of property disasters.

Asked if he had lost money on these deals, he said, "Not yet. We own a shopping center in Temecula that is occupied and making money. In Florida I am doing a 500-home subdivision, just north of Eglin Air Force Base." He says the property is worth more than he paid three or four years ago.

In New Mexico and Arizona, he invested in raw land, developed homes, sold them and still owns some of the property.

From the 36 Strategems essay

"Looting a house on fire" (趁火打劫 or "Chen Huo Da Jie")
When a company is beset by internal conflicts, they are not able to deal with an outside threat. This is the time for the superior company to attack.

When one's has the advantage of time and resources, the successful strategist does not rush into the situation. He builds a detailed plan and uses the approach of "Advantageous Strategems".

Side note: 36 Stratagems is one of the most popular Chinese Strategic essays. It focuses on six categories of strategies that are based on the competitive positions of all competitors


Politically, Rogers considers himself a "Jeffersonian democrat. The best government is the least government," he says. "In some areas, I'm libertarian. I don't subscribe to any one party, they are all bad."

Although he's staunchly against regulation, Rogers testified in Congress against the repeal of Glass-Steagall, the law passed in 1933 that kept banks out of the securities business.

Because bank deposits are insured "it's a proper area to be regulated," he says. Rogers blames the recent financial crisis largely on the repeal of Glass-Steagall in 1999.

Net Worth runs Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays.

E-mail Kathleen Pender at kpender@sfchronicle.com.

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/12/06/BUND1AUN8E.DTL

This article appeared on page F - 1 of the San Francisco Chronicle