Friday, January 25, 2013

Playing the Moneyball Game


Click here for a non-tangible version of Moneyball.

I saw the movie and thought that it was ok. I know people who are A's fans. Some of them were just bandwagon jumpers until the A's went through a dry spell of losing seasons. Then, they left and pretended to be Giants fans. Most of them do not even live in Oakland. 

Moneyball is a nice approach and it works until the big guys (esp. The Red Sox, The Devil Rays and others) learned the specifics of their approach and used it against the originator.

Protecting the Advantage
Here is a reminder from Jiang Tai Gong's Six Secret Teachings.


King Wen asked Tai Gong:"How does one preserve the state's territory?"

Tai Gong said: "Do not estrange your relatives. Do not neglect the masses. Be concillatory and solicitous towards nearby states and control all that is under you. Do not loan the authority of state to other men. If you loan the authority of state to other men, then you will lose your authority. Do not hurt those of lower position to benefit those of higher position. Do not abandon the fundamental to save those that are inconsequential.

When the sun is at midday, you should dry things. If you grasp a knife, you must cut. If you hold an axe, you must attack."

"If at the height of the day, you do not dry things in the sun, this is termed losing the opportunity.

If you grasp a knife but do not cut anything, you will lose the moment for profits. If you hold an axe and do not attack, enemies will attack instead."

"If trickling streams are not blocked, they will become great rivers. If you do not extinguish the smallest flames, there is nothing much you can do when it turns into great flames.

If you do not eliminate the two-leaf sapling, you might have to use the axe to remove it in future." "For this reason, the ruler must focus on developing wealth within his state. Without material wealth, he has nothing with which to spread beneficence or to bring his relatives together.

If he estranges his relatives it will be harmful. If he loses the common people, he will be defeated. "

"Do not loan sharp weapons to other men. If you loan sharp weapons to other men, you will be hurt by them and will not live out your allotted span of years."

King Wen said:"What do you mean by benevolence and righteousness?"

Tai Gong replied: "Respect the common people, unite your relatives. If you respect the common people, they will be in harmony. And if you unite your relatives, they will be happy. This is the way to implement the essential cords of benevolence and righteousness."

"Do not allow other men to snatch away your awesomeness.Rely on your wisdom, follow the norm. Those that submit and accord with you, treat them generously and virtuously. Those that oppose you, break with force. If you respect the people and trust, the state will be peaceful and populace submissive." - T’ai Kung Liu-t’ao (Six Secret Teachings)

More on this topic can be found in the Seven Military Classics of Ancient China.

The Chinese strategy essays have always emphasized the importance of maintaining one's advantage as long as possible. This could only occur when the strategist has mastered the art of quietude. ... It also works when one also has the means to connect the modes to it.

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The Flaw of Data Reading
Correct data tells the readers the status of the situation. Sometimes, it does not tell them what might happen next.

Ruminations From The Compass Desk
As a reminder to the amateur strategists, principles and data reading do not win contests.  ...  A process model that is supported by the connectivity of the right principles, the practices, the protocols and the procedures, will offer the implementers a competitive chance to survive.  One has to be able to survive before he/she can thrive. 

Most people should be asking what was the specifics (include the minutes of details) that are behind the process model instead of the conceptual framework.

The key is to know the exceptions to every situation. ...  Do you ever look at the configuration of the Big Tangible Picture from that perspective?  ... While looking at it, do you ever look at the prevailing factors and focus on whether it can be adjusted with minimal effort?  (This is how one plays the Moneyball game.)   

In summary, blood, sweat and tears is what a hardcore realist sees on the gameboard of competitive darwinism.

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