Assessing the Reasoning Behind a Perfect Game

The Essence of Any Grand Situation

The way begets one;
One begets two;
Two begets three;
Three begets the myriad creatures.

The myriad creatures carry on their backs the yin and embrace in their arms the yang and are the blending of the generative forces of the two.

There are no words which men detest more than ’solitary’, ‘desolate’, and ‘hapless’, yet lords and princes use these to refer to themselves.

Thus a thing is sometimes added to by being diminished and diminished by being added to.

What others teach I also teach.
‘The violent shall not come to a natural end.’
I shall take this as my precept.

www.centertao.org/tao-te-ching/dc-lau/#chapter-42

The masses have always believed that that the cause of one grand success is usually based on one or two grand factors. Research tells us that most complex situations are driven by a cluster of obscure influences that most people usually have overlooked. 

A Miracle in San Francisco

Matt Cain pitched a perfect game this past Wed.   Some people have wondered what were some of the influences that played an important role behind his success.

Following is an abridged listing of those influences:

• Since the ban of steroid and amphetamines, the slugging percentage of most "star" hitters have been lowered; 
• the availability of information on the hitter's tendencies have given the opposing field team the advantage;
• the on-coming trend of more pitchers using the cut fastball; and
• this particular game had a home plate umpire who favors the pitcher in his pitch calls.

Click here for some of the other reasons

Assistance from the Field

"In the field of observation, 

fortune favors the prepared." - Pasteur

Luckily, Bruce Bochy, the S.F. Giants Manager (who is an exceptional game strategist) noticed that Mr. Cain was on the verge of pitching a no-hitter half way into the game and that the team had already scored enough runs to win the game. He decided to field his best defensive team out on field in order to assure that Cain gets the no-hitter.

Summary

If the distribution of the outcomes of an event can be described by a probability distribution, the event's likely outcomes can be predicted. Also, if the probability distribution of those given pitching outcomes increase, one should expect the frequency of events such as no-hitters and one-hitters to increase.

Having a Big Tangible Picture view is about understanding the configuration of a situation first, not the projected outcome.  It allows the successful strategist to focus on staging a probable and favorable future situation.

Regardless that the sport of baseball can be predictable, the players are the obvious cause for the unpredictability.